This study evaluates eight-year ownership costs for battery electric vehicles (BEV) versus non-plugin hybrid vehicles using forecasting to estimate future electricity and conventional gasoline prices and incorporating these in a multiple design of experiments simulation. Results suggest that while electric vehicles are statistically dominant in terms of variable costs over an 8-year life-span, high-performance hybrid non-plugins achieve variable fuel costs nearly as good as low-performing electric vehicles (those attaining only 3 miles per kilowatt hour) and that these hybrid acquisition costs are (on average) lower yet the vehicles retain higher residual values. In general, the six smallest ownership costs are split evenly between hybrid and electric vehicles; however, inflation for conventional regular gasoline is estimated to outstrip inflation per kilowatt hour. Thus, non-plugin hybrid cars are likely to require considerably more advanced engineering to keep pace.

An important aspect of PET imaging in clinical application is the localization and detection of tumors and lesions by administering a predetermined amount of radiotracer. This allows for example, a detailed view of what is going inside the patient body in cellular level. The quality of PET image is strongly dependent on the amount of administrated radiotracer and the patient’s body parameters. As the amount of injection radiotracer increases, the quality of resulting image increases and the lesion detection efficiency increases. The PET examiner society recognizes that any dose of radiotracer is associated with some possible radiation risks. It can harmful to the patient if essential PET imaging session is not made due to fear of radiation risk. In order to ensure the highest quality diagnosis and the smallest radiation risk, the patient should receive the smallest amount of radiotracer that provide image with sufficient quality. Our study is focused on proposing an efficient PET simulation tool that predict the smallest possible amount of administrated radiotracer to provides the appropriate diagnostic information based on significant patient’s body parameters (weight, age) at fixed scanning to improve the clinical diagnostic process in term of tumor detecting and localization. We have built a model of particular PET scanner and model of patient based on real MRI image and digital anthropomorphic phantom of our region of interest (brain). We have performed Monte Carlo simulation for whole PET procedure with special parameter In evaluating stage, a dataset of 60 patient is used and 11 independent dose prediction simulation for each patient are performed. We conclude that our simulator perform a desirable and efficient prediction of injection radiotracer amount that optimizes the current clinical amount up to 28%. In addition, we found that the total injected radiotracer dosage for adult patients are mostly affected when considering patient weight rather than patient age.

This paper compares the finite sample performance of three non-parametric threshold estimators via Monte Carlo method. Our results show that the finite sample performance of the three estimators is not robust to the relative position of the threshold level along the distribution of threshold variable, especially when a structural change occurs at the tail part of the distribution.

Dynamic hedging has been adopted by many insurance companies to mitigate the financial risks associated with variable annuity guarantees. In order to simulate the performance of dynamic hedging for variable annuity products, insurance companies rely on nested stochastic projections, which is highly computationally intensive and often prohibitive for large variable annuity portfolios. Metamodeling techniques have recently been proposed to address the computational issues. However, it is difficult for researchers to obtain real datasets from insurance companies to test metamodeling techniques and publish the results in academic journals. In this paper, we create synthetic datasets that can be used for the purpose of addressing the computational issues associated with the nested stochastic valuation of large variable annuity portfolios. The runtime used to create these synthetic datasets would be about 3 years if a single CPU were used. These datasets are readily available to researchers and practitioners so that they can focus on testing metamodeling techniques.

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a basic parameter in energy exchange between the land and atmosphere and is frequently used in many sciences such as climatology, hydrology, agriculture, ecology, etc. LST time series data have usually deficient, missing and unacceptable data caused by the presence of clouds in images, presence of dust in atmosphere and sensor failure. In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithm was used to resolve the problem of missing and outlier data caused by cloud cover. The region studied in the present research included an image frame of MODIS with horizontal number 22 and vertical number 05 (h22v05). This image involved a large part of Iran and Turkmenistan and Caspian Sea. In this study, MODIS LST sensor (MOD11A1) was used during 2015 with 1×1 Km spatial resolution and day/night LST data (daily temporal resolution). The results of the data quality showed that cloud cover caused 36.37% of missing data in the studied time series with 730 day/night LST images. Further, the results of SSA algorithm in reconstruction of LST images indicated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.95 K between the original and reconstructed data in LST time series in the study region. In general, the findings showed that SSA algorithm using spatio-temporal interpolation in LST time series can be effectively used to resolve the problem of missing data caused by cloud cover.

The classical Rotational Isomeric State (RIS) model, originally proposed by Flory, has been used to rationalize a wide range of physicochemical properties of neutral polymers. However, many weak polyelectrolytes of interest are able to regulate their charge depending on the conformational state of the bonds. Recently, it has been shown that the RIS model can be coupled with the Site Binding (SB) model, for which the ionizable sites can adopt two states: protonated or deprotonated. The resulting combined scheme, the SBRIS model, allows to analyse ionization and conformational equilibria on the same foot. In the present work this approach is extended to include pH-dependent electrostatic Long Range (LR) interactions, ubiquitous in weak polyelectrolytes at moderate and low ionic strengths. With this aim the original LR interactions are taken into account by defining effective Short Range (SR) and pH-dependent parameters, such as effective microscopic protonation constants and rotational bond energies. The new parameters are systematically calculated using variational methods. The machinery of statistical mechanics for SR interactions, including the powerful and fast transfer matrix methods, can then be applied. The resulting technique, to which we will refer as Local Effective Interaction Parameters (LEIP) method, is illustrated with a minimal model of a flexible linear polyelectrolyte containing only one type of rotating bonds. LEIP reproduces very well the pH dependence of the degree of protonation and bond probabilities obtained by semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, where LR interactions are taken explicitly into account. The reduction in the computational time in several orders of magnitude suggests that the LEIP technique could be useful in a range of areas involving linear weak polyelectrolytes, allowing direct fitting of the relevant physical parameters to the experimental quantities.

During the recent decades, global warming by greenhouse gas evolution has attracted worldwide attention and evermore strict regulations thereon have become institutionalized as international policies. In the process, more environment-friendly power generation technologies have been developed utilizing fossil fuels with a view to timely commercialization. As one of such “clean coal” technology, Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell system is a promising power generation means and COS hydrolysis reactor is installed downstream of coal syngas to remove acidic gas constituents such as H2S and COS. The most significant design parameters affecting performance of the COS hydrolysis reactor were selected to be GHSV, (catalytic) reaction temperature, and length ratio and numerical modeling was performed considering heat and fluid flow transfer as well as chemical reaction kinetics. Effect of the selected design parameters on the variation of conversion rate and reactant gas mixture concentration were comprehensively investigated to predict performance of COS hydrolysis reactor. Stochastic modeling of reactor performance was finally performed using Monte Carlo simulation and linear regression fitting.

We estimated the daily intakes of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin via ingestion of indoor dust and outdoor soils using the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation Model on a probabilistic approach for Taiwan’s homes. Variable information for the daily intake estimation, such as concentration, ingestion rate, body weight, was adopted from previous studies. Monte Carlo simulation was performed with 1,000,000 iterations to simulate a single daily intake, which was shown in terms of percentage of the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of either insecticide. The daily intakes were minimal with a 99% probability; at 99.9th percentile, however, the total intakes leaped to 13.1% and 20.0% of the respective ADIs of chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin. The sensitivity analysis indicated that concentration was the most determinant variable. Compared to the data of daily intakes via dietary ingestion of vegetables derived from a previous study, the estimated intakes by this study were considerable at the highest percentile, which referred to insecticide residues few days after insecticide application. Consequently, the non-dietary ingestion exposure to either insecticide was negligible in most cases; nevertheless, for those with indoor insecticide applications, the daily intakes for young children could be of concern. Frequently home cleaning is recommended to reduce the exposure.

The present work is concerned with the study of the generalized Langevin equation and its link to the physical theories of statistical mechanics and scale relativity. It is demonstrated that the form of the coefficients of Langevin equation depend critically on the assumption of continuity of the reconstructed trajectory. This in turn demands for the fluctuations of the diffusion term to be discontinuous in time. This paper further investigates the connection between the scale-relativistic and stochastic mechanics approaches, respectively, with the study of the Burgers equation, which in this case appears as a stochastic geodesic equation. By further demanding time reversibility of the drift the Langevin equation can also describe equivalent quantum-mechanical systems in a path-wise manner. The resulting statistical description obeys the Fokker-Plank equation of the probability density of the differential system, which can be readily estimated from Monte Carlo simulations of the random paths. Based on the Fokker-Plank formalism a new derivation of the transient probability densities is presented. Finally, stochastic simulations are compared to the theoretical results.

The properties of rubber are strongly influenced by the distribution of filler within the polymer matrix. Here we introduce a Monte Carlo-based morphology generator. The basic elements of our model are cubic cells, which, in the current version, can be either silica filler particles or rubber volume elements in adjustable proportion. The model allows the assignment of surface free energies to the particles according to whether a surface represents, for instance, 'naked' silica or silanised silica. The amount of silanisation is variable. We use a nearest-neighbour site-exchange Monte Carlo algorithm to generate filler morphologies, mimicking flocculation. Transmission electron micrographs (TEM) as well as small angle scattering (SAS) intensities can be calculated along the Monte Carlo trajectory. In this work we demonstrate the application of our morphology generator in terms of selected examples. We illustrate its potential as a tool for screening studies, relating interface tensions between the components to filler network structure as characterized by TEM and SAS.

Estimates of extreme water level return periods in river systems are crucial for hydraulic engineering design and planning. Recorded historical water level data of Taiwan’s rivers are not long enough for traditional frequency analyses when predicting extreme water levels for different return periods. In this study, the integration of a one-dimensional flash flood routing hydrodynamic model with the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict extreme water levels in the Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was calibrated and verified with observed water levels using four typhoon events. The results indicated a reasonable agreement between the model simulation and observation data. Seven parameters, including the astronomical tide and surge height at the mouth of the Danshuei River and the river discharge at five gauge stations, were adopted to calculate the joint probability and generate stochastic scenarios via the Monte Carlo simulation. The validated hydrodynamic model driven by the stochastic scenarios was then used to simulate extreme water levels for further frequency analysis. The design water level was estimated using different probability distributions in the frequency analysis at five stations. The design high-water levels for a 200-year return period at Guandu Bridge, Taipei Bridge, Hsin-Hai Bridge, Da-Zhi Bridge, and Chung-Cheng Bridge were 2.90 m, 5.13 m, 6.38 m, 6.05 m, and 9.94 m, respectively. The estimated design water levels plus the freeboard are proposed and recommended for further engineering design and planning.

Social recommendation is almost as the integration of the business platform and social platform, and gradually become a top in recommendation system. Social recommendation algorithm solves the problem of cold start and data sparseness for traditional commodity, while the internal structure of the relationship graph in social relations has not been fully excavated. This paper proposes two models of Micro Relation Transfer Model and Macro Relation Transfer Model of social relations, and applies the social relations transfer models into the social recommendation system. A relationship graph is built from the relationship between customers on the Internet. Micro Relation Transfer Model establishes the transfer activation function by calculating the relationship between the two customers using the similarity of interests set. Micro Relation Transfer Model spreads the relationship of friends by calculating the proportion of common neighbors held by the customer's social relations. In order to effectively control the transmission range and effect of social relations graph, we introduce pruning algorithm based on Monte Carlo Decision Tree convergence algorithm. The experimental results show that SRRTC algorithm enhances the success rate and stability significantly.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling propagators, including numerical integrators for stochastic dynamics, are central to the calculation of thermodynamic quantities and determination of structure for molecular systems. Efficiency is paramount, and to a great extent, this is determined by the integrated autocorrelation time (IAcT). This quantity varies depending on the observable that is being estimated. It is suggested that it is the maximum of the IAcT over all observables that is the relevant metric. Reviewed here is a method for estimating this quantity. For reversible propagators (which are those that satisfy detailed balance), the maximum IAcT is determined by the spectral gap in the forward transfer operator, but for irreversible propagators, the maximum IAcT can be far less than or greater than what might be inferred from the spectral gap. This is consistent with recent theoretical results (not to mention past practical experience) suggesting that irreversible propagators generally perform better if not much better than reversible ones. Typical irreversible propagators involve a parameter controlling the mix of ballistic and diffusive movement. To gain insight into the effect of the damping parameter for Langevin dynamics, its optimal value is obtained here for a multidimensional quadratic potential energy function.

We develop an interactive likelihood (ILH) for sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) methods for image-based multiple target tracking applications. The purpose of the ILH is to improve tracking accuracy by reducing the need for data association. In addition, we integrate a recently developed deep neural network for pedestrian detection along with the ILH with a multi-Bernoulli filter. We evaluate the performance of the multi-Bernoulli filter with the ILH and the pedestrian detector in a number of publicly available datasets (2003 PETS INMOVE, AFL, and TUD-Stadtmitte) using standard, well-known multi-target tracking metrics (OSPA and CLEAR MOT). In all datasets, the ILH term increases the tracking accuracy of the multi-Bernoulli filter.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.