A Production Planning Alternative for Natural Gas Processing Under Open Market: Data-Driven Modeling via Machine Learning

The objective of this work is to propose a simulation strategy for production planning that is compatible with the dynamism of natural gas processing, especially under open-market arrangement, in which several scheduling simulations must be performed within short time horizons. In such contexts, traditional first-principles-based ap-proaches, although accurate, require prohibitive computational times, motivating the need for an alternative simulation strategy. This work thus proposes a data-driven model built with the aid of machine learning and applied in a case study with historical data from the largest gas processing site in Brazil: Cabiúnas Petrobras asset. Main plant flowrates were selected: 18 targets and 44 input candidates – 1282 observations from three and a half years of operation. Principal Component Analysis was used for order reduction, keeping the 22 main principal components. A forward neural network (2 hidden layers and 225 neurons per layer) was built from training/test sets randomly selected and optimized hyperparameters – learning rate (0.001533) and batch size (8). Training converged in roughly 200 epochs (Adam optimizer), with early stop triggered by validation set. A mean absolute error of 0.0017 (test set) and R2=0.72 were found, a promising result considering plant complexity and data simplicity. Results showed particularly good fit for lighter products (sales gas, natural gas liquid), also indicating an opportunity for further work by including inputs related to liquid fractionation.