Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Two-Step Energy Management Method Guided by Day-Ahead Quantile Solar Forecasts: Cross-Impacts on Four Services for Smart-Buildings

Version 1 : Received: 17 September 2020 / Approved: 20 September 2020 / Online: 20 September 2020 (13:58:10 CEST)

How to cite: Calderon-Obaldia, F.; Badosa, J.; Migan-Dubois, A.; Bourdin, V. A Two-Step Energy Management Method Guided by Day-Ahead Quantile Solar Forecasts: Cross-Impacts on Four Services for Smart-Buildings. Preprints 2020, 2020090461 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0461.v1). Calderon-Obaldia, F.; Badosa, J.; Migan-Dubois, A.; Bourdin, V. A Two-Step Energy Management Method Guided by Day-Ahead Quantile Solar Forecasts: Cross-Impacts on Four Services for Smart-Buildings. Preprints 2020, 2020090461 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202009.0461.v1).

Abstract

The research work hereby presented, emerges from the urge to answer the well-known question of how the uncertainty of intermittent renewable sources affects the performance of a microgrid and how could we deal with it. More specifically, we want to evaluate what could be the impact in performance of a microgrid intended to serve a smart-building (powered by photovoltaic panels and with battery energy storage), when the uncertainty of the photovoltaic-production forecasts is considered in the energy management process. For this, several objectives (or services) are targeted based in a two-step (double-objective) energy management framework, that combines optimization-based and rule-based algorithms. The performance is evaluated based on some particular services proposed as performance indicators. Simulations are performed using data of a study-case microgrid (Drahi-Xnovation center, Ecole Polytechnique, France). The use of quantile forecasts (obtained with an analog-ensemble method) is tested as a mean to deal with (i.e. decrease) the uncertainty of the solar PV production. The proposed energy management framework is compared with basic reference strategies and the results show the superior performance of the former in almost all the services and forecasting scenarios proposed. The contrasting nature among some of the target services is one of the main conclusions of this work, as well as the different requirements in terms of forecasts when optimizing for different services and seasons of the year. This fact highlights the usefulness of the quantile forecasting approach, as a tool to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty of PV power production

Subject Areas

microgrid; energy-management-system; quantile-forecasts; smart-building

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