Why did inanimate materials evolve into complex organisms and societies on Earth? This is a fundamental scientific question that has captivated humans for millennia. Here we propose the Carbon-Based Evolutionary Theory (CBET) to provide novel, direct, explicit, and relatively comprehensive answers to this question. The CBET identifies three key mechanisms based on some well-known principles of physics and chemistry (e.g., laws of thermodynamics) and some features of Earth and carbon-based entities (CBEs): the driving force mechanism that provides energy, the structural mechanism that generates new functions, and the natural selection mechanism that accumulates orderliness, all for the evolution of CBEs. These mechanisms lead to the progression from chemical to biological and social evolution, marked by the escalating hierarchy of CBEs and the increase in the quantity, diversity, and orderliness of high-hierarchy CBEs. The CBET clarifies the natural roots of multiple pivotal and seemingly paradoxical social notions, such as inclusiveness and competition, altruism and selfishness, freedom and restriction, as well as inherited advantages and acquired strengths. It advocates for the balanced, harmonious, and peaceful development of human society as well as the integration of all countries into a single harmonious social collective. The CBET unifies biology with physics and chemistry and could be a basic theory shared by the natural sciences and the social sciences. It could also be significant in the rational development of human society.

This article presents multiple novel and compelling arguments to systematically disprove two widely accepted notions: one is that entropy is a measure of disorder, and the other is Schrödinger's notion of negative entropy (negentropy). These two notions have been cited hundreds of times annually in scientific literature for decades. To mathematically describe the second law of thermodynamics, the concept of entropy was created and defined in the 1860s as heat energy divided by thermodynamic temperature, and the entropy of an object increases when it absorbs heat. This is the uncontroversial and fundamental nature of entropy, which is pivotal to current thermodynamics and from which multiple facts are deduced. These facts consistently disprove the above two notions. Some biological facts, such as the one that life orderliness is encoded and provided by inherited genes rather than entropy decline, can also disprove Schrödinger's negentropy notion. Moreover, this article further clarifies the reasoning errors of the two notions. It also shows that the tendency of many natural or social systems to become more disordered over time does not result from the second law of thermodynamics.

There are two contrary opinions regarding the risk if mainland China (MC) moves away from its zero-COVID policy. Some experts think the risk shall be much lower than influenza as per MC’s own COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR), while some other experts think the risk shall be much higher than influenza as per the COVID-19 CFRs of other regions. We elucidate here that this and multiple other striking differences in the CFR between various scenarios all support and substantially resulted from the view that good IDM is highly powerful to mitigate COVID-19, where IDM (isolation-disinfection-maintenance) means isolation of COVID-19 cases from other people, disinfection of their living environments, and health maintenance (e.g., rest, nutrition, breathing). The high effect of good IDM is also supported by the theoretic functions of IDM in minimizing co-infections and maintaining body functions, and the fact that all the 505 COVID-19 deaths reported in MC in 2022 before May 5 died directly of severe underlying diseases with COVID-19. Although it is tough for people in poverty to obtain good IDM, good IDM can be feasible at home for the most mild cases and in hospitals for the most severe cases. Therefore, good IDM can be crucial to mitigating COVID-19 worldwide. It also suggests that the risk for China to end its zero-COVID policy depends on China’s control policies or measures. Based on the effect of IDM, the cautious co-existence policy was proposed for COVID-19 control. This policy could reduce the whole death toll in MC because good IDM is non-specific and can reduce deaths of various other diseases. The cautious co-existence policy (non-specific) and the vaccination policy (specific) aid each other to mitigate COVID-19, and they cannot replace each other. Those who are qualified in health for vaccination should be vaccinated against COVID-19 timely.

Human monkeypox, caused by monkeypox virus, has spread unprecedentedly to more than 100 countries since May 2022. Here we summarized the epidemiology of monkeypox through a literature review and elucidated the risks and elimination strategies of this outbreak mainly based on the summarized epidemiology. We demonstrated that monkeypox virus became more contagious and less virulent in 2022, which could result from the fact that the virus entered a special transmission network favoring close contacts (i.e., sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men outside Africa) and the possibility that the virus accumulated a few adaptive mutations. We gave the reasons to investigate whether cattle, goats, sheep, and pigs are susceptible to monkeypox virus and whether infection with monkeypox virus could be latent in some primates. We listed six potential scenarios for the future of the outbreak (e.g., the outbreak could lead to endemicity outside Africa with increased transmissibility or virulence). We also listed multiple factors aiding or impeding the elimination of the outbreak. We showed that the control measures strengthened worldwide after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) could eliminate the outbreak in 2022. We clarified eight strategies, i.e., publicity and education, case isolation, vaccine stockpiling, risk-based vaccination or ring vaccination, importation quarantine, international collaboration, and laboratory management, for the elimination of the outbreak.

This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.