The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.

In the future, the pursuit of high-quality economic development and a focus on ecological environmental protection in China will inevitably result in significant conflicts between land use and ecological land use. The challenge lies in achieving sustainable high-quality development while simultaneously protecting the ecological environment, optimizing the land use structure, and promoting a harmonious relationship between humans and the land. These challenges are faced by all regions. Land use conflicts primarily occur in peri-urban areas characterized by prominent economic development and urban agglomeration. Previous studies have mainly focused on analyzing the effects of land use on habitat quality during intense urbanization. However, it is important to recognize that land pressure encompasses economic, ecological, and social aspects. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the spatial conflict of land use and the impact on habitat quality in Ankang, a city that has been advocating ecological protection for the past two decades, this study aims to objectively analyze the spatial trends in land use changes in such cities. Additionally, it aims to provide insights for the harmonious development of land use in eco-region-oriented cities. Using the SSP-RCP scenarios provided by CMIP6, this paper employs a system analysis method, PLUS model, InVEST model, and land use conflict measurement model to dynamically simulate the future habitat quality and spatial conflict patterns of land use in Ankang City. The study explores the spatial coupling effect of both factors under different scenarios. The results indicate the following:(1) Under different future shared socio-economic path scenarios, land use intensity and land conflict levels follow the order of SSP585 (high forcing scenario), SSP370 (medium to high forcing scenario), SSP245 (medium forcing scenario), and SSP126 (low forcing scenario), with intensity and conflict decreasing accordingly. (2) The overall development trend in Ankang City reveals an intensification of land use conflicts and a decrease in habitat quality. The expansion rate of construction land is increasing and exhibiting aggregation, while agricultural land area is expanding and forest land area is continuously decreasing. (3) Land use intensity exhibits a significant positive correlation with land conflict levels, while land conflict levels demonstrate a significant negative correlation with habitat quality. These findings suggest that land use has had some impact on the ecological environment, with indications of habitat degradation. Even in Ankang, where ecological development is highly valued, the city will gradually face conflicts between ecological protection and economic development in future scenarios. The study highlights that Ankang's future development space will be constrained within the context of environmental protection, leading to greater land use conflicts in urban and surrounding areas. Consequently, the quality of habitats will inevitably decline. Therefore, it is crucial to allocate sufficient space for economic development while simultaneously prioritizing ecological protection. This approach will ensure a healthy economic development trajectory and foster a harmonious relationship between humans and the land.

Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (Site1 and Site2) in northeast Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981- 2014. The analyses revealed that: (1) Both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. (2) The mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in 2080s at Site1 and Site2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation. (3) The values of 24-hour precipitation with 10-year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for project water supply and water management structures.