Zhu, W.; Zhang, Z.; Feng, S.; Ren, H. Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa. Forests2024, 15, 610.
Zhu, W.; Zhang, Z.; Feng, S.; Ren, H. Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa. Forests 2024, 15, 610.
Zhu, W.; Zhang, Z.; Feng, S.; Ren, H. Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa. Forests2024, 15, 610.
Zhu, W.; Zhang, Z.; Feng, S.; Ren, H. Prediction and Transition of Vegetation Vulnerability in the Mara River Basin under Different Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), East Africa. Forests 2024, 15, 610.
Abstract
The Mara River basin (MRB) has a world-famous ecosystem, but the vegetation has been damaged due to economic development in recent years, and there is little known about the area that will experience severe vegetation damage in the future. Based on the vegetation vulnerability system, principal component analysis, and three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), vegetation vulnerability was calculated in the base period (2010-2019), near-term period (2020-2059) and long-term period (2060-2099) in the MRB. The spatial cluster of vegetation vulnerability was revealed by spatial correlation analysis, and the transition of vegetation vulnerability of different periods was analyzed by stochastic matrix. The results showed that in all periods, the vulnerability showed a high-high cluster in the east, and a low-low cluster midstream and downstream. From the stochastic matrix, the area of high vulnerability increased the least under the SSP1-2.6, while it increased the most under the SSP5-8.5. The vegetation vulnerability upstream increased the most from the base period to the near-term period and long-term period in the MRB. By comparing the vegetation vulnerability under different scenarios, and pointing out the areas with the highest vulnerability increase, this study can better provide comprehensive decision-making for vegetation protection in the MRB.
Keywords
Mara River basin; Vegetation vulnerability; Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs); Prediction; Stochastic matrix
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Geography
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
