Golian, S.; El-Idrysy, H.; Stambuk, D. Using CMIP6 Models to Assess Future Climate Change Effects on Mine Sites in Kazakhstan. Hydrology2023, 10, 150.
Golian, S.; El-Idrysy, H.; Stambuk, D. Using CMIP6 Models to Assess Future Climate Change Effects on Mine Sites in Kazakhstan. Hydrology 2023, 10, 150.
Golian, S.; El-Idrysy, H.; Stambuk, D. Using CMIP6 Models to Assess Future Climate Change Effects on Mine Sites in Kazakhstan. Hydrology2023, 10, 150.
Golian, S.; El-Idrysy, H.; Stambuk, D. Using CMIP6 Models to Assess Future Climate Change Effects on Mine Sites in Kazakhstan. Hydrology 2023, 10, 150.
Abstract
Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (Site1 and Site2) in northeast Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981- 2014. The analyses revealed that: (1) Both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. (2) The mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in 2080s at Site1 and Site2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation. (3) The values of 24-hour precipitation with 10-year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for project water supply and water management structures.
Keywords
Climate Change; SSPs scenarios; Water Management; Mining; Kazakhstan
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
