ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0381.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Rossby wave; quasi-stationary wave; stratosphere; Arctic; ozone
Online: 29 March 2022 (11:26:45 CEST)
The purpose of this work is to study Rossby wave parameters in total ozone over Arctic in 2000–2021. We consider the averages in the January–March period, when stratospheric trace gases (including ozone) in sudden stratospheric warming events are strongly disturbed by planetary waves. To characterize the wave parameters, we analyzed ozone data at the latitudes of 50° N (the sub-vortex area), 60° N (the polar vortex edge) and 70° N (inner region of the polar vortex). Total ozone column (TOC) measurements during 22-year time interval were used from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) / Earth Probe and Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) / Aura satellite observations. The total ozone zonal distribution and variations in the parameters of the Fourier spectral components with zonal wave numbers m = 1–5 are presented. Daily and interannual variations in TOC, amplitudes and phases of spectral wave components, and linear trends of the quasi-stationary wave 1 (QSW1) amplitudes are discussed. The positive TOC peaks inside the vortex in 2010 and 2018 alternate with negative ones in 2011 and 2020. The latter TOC anomalies correspond to severe depletion of stratospheric ozone over the Arctic in the strong vortex conditions due to anomalously low activity of planetary waves. Variations in TOC in sub-vortex region exhibit the statistically significant negative trend –4.8±5.4 DU decade–1 in QSW1 amplitude, while the trend is statistically insignificant at the vortex edge region due to increased TOC variability. Processes associated with polar vortex dynamics are discussed, including quasi-stationary vortex asymmetry and quasi-circumpolar migration of the wave-1 phase at the vortex edge.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0261.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: sea ice; atmospheric circulation; Rossby waves; climate changes; Arctic; numerical modeling
Online: 11 August 2021 (13:17:14 CEST)
The amplified Arctic warming is one of several factors influencing atmospheric dynamics. In this work, we consider a series of numerical experiments to identify the direct role of the Arctic sea ice reduction process in forming climatic trends in the northern hemisphere. Aimed at this, we used two more or less independent mechanisms of ice reduction. The first is traditionally associated with increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the historic level of 360 ppm to 450 ppm and 600 ppm. This growth increases air temperature and decreases the ice volume. The second mechanism is associated with a reduction in the reflectivity of ice and snow. We assume that comparing the results of these two experiments allows us to judge the direct role of ice reduction. The most prominent consequences of ice reduction, as a result, were the weakening of temperature gradient at the tropopause level in mid-latitudes, the slower zonal wind at 50-60∘N, intensification of wave activity in Europe, Western America, and Chukotka, and its weakening in the south of Siberia and Kazakhstan. We also consider how climate change may alter regimes such as blocking and stationary Rossby waves. The study used the INM-CM48 climate system model .
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0037.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Rainfall; Trends analysis; Mann-Kendall test; CHIRPS; Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA4); Uganda.
Online: 4 January 2021 (12:43:03 CET)
The lack of reliable rainfall projection records remains a major challenge to Uganda. In the advent of extreme wetness or drought events, reliable rainfall estimates for local planning and adaptation are essential. The present study used two main datasets to conduct a historical analysis from 1981 to 2019, coupled with future projections under representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the period 2020-2050. Historical analysis revealed bimodal annual rainfall pattern for March-May (MAM) and September-November (SON) gradients representing heavier to lighter rainfall events respectively over the study area. Investigation of recent trends in rainfall patterns revealed an upward trend from 2010 onwards in annual and seasonal rainfall. Moreover, results for future projections show wet conditions are projected to occur over the study area between the months of April/May and October. Contrarily, March is likely to experience a reduction in wet conditions. Mann-Kendall test employed to make future projections of rainfall depicted decreasing patterns during MAM season whilst increasing tendencies with strong shift was highlighted for SON season over the study region. Meanwhile, annual projections indicate huge variations with linear trends showing a marginal increase as compared to historical trends. Findings would serve as baseline print to propel further studies that could delve into impact analysis of drought extreme events which pose significant threats to the agricultural sector which is heavily reliant on rainfall.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0119.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: Quantile Mapping Bias Correction (QMBC); Regional Climate Models (RCMs); Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models (RCA4); Drought; Flood; Kenya
Online: 12 January 2020 (14:18:56 CET)
Accurate assessment and projections of extreme climate events requires the use of climate datasets with no or minimal error. This study uses quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the latest output of Rossby Climate Model Center (RCA4) over Kenya, East Africa. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean Bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrate varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit significant improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict exemplary improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model show little improvement across various timescales (i.e. March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND)). The projections forced with bias corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data prior to performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models can be used for projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. This study analysis is crucial from the sustainable planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and disaster risk reduction perspective.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0219.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Fluids & Plasmas Keywords: Fluid dynamics; Turbulent cascades; Fluid equilibria; Casimir constraints; Euler equation; Quasigeostrophic equations; Rossby waves; Axisymmetric flows; Shallow water equations; Magnetohydrodynamics
Online: 11 August 2022 (11:48:18 CEST)
An overview is presented of several diverse branches of work in the area of effectively 2D fluid equilibria which have in common that they are constrained by an infinite number of conservation laws. Broad concepts, and the enormous variety of physical phenomena that can be explored, are highlighted. These span, roughly in order of increasing complexity, Euler flow, nonlinear Rossby waves, 3D axisymmetric flow, shallow water dynamics, and 2D magnetohydrodynamics. The classical field theories describing these systems bear some resemblance to perhaps more familiar fluctuating membrane and continuous spin models, but the fluid physics drives these models into unconventional regimes exhibiting large scale jet and eddy structures. From a dynamical point of view these structures are the end result of various conserved variable forward and inverse cascades. The resulting balance between large scale structure and small scale fluctuations is controlled by the competition between energy and entropy in the system free energy, in turn highly tunable through setting the values of the conserved integrals. Although the statistical mechanical description of such systems is fully self-consistent, with remarkable mathematical structure and diversity of solutions, great care must be taken because the underlying assumptions, especially ergodicity, can be violated or at minimum lead to exceedingly long equilibration times. Generalization of the theory to include weak driving and dissipation (e.g., non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and associated linear response formalism) could provide additional insights, but has yet to be properly explored.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0227.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Oceanography Keywords: lagrangian drifter; rafos floats; empirical model decomposition (emd); deterministic-stochastic emd; intrinsic mode function (imf); eddy radial scale; eddy velocity scale; eddy rossby number; eddy-current kinetic energy ratio
Online: 19 October 2019 (16:41:37 CEST)
Deterministic-stochastic empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to obtain low-frequency (non-diffusive, i.e., background velocity) and high-frequency (diffusive, i.e., eddies) components from a Lagrangian drifter‘s trajectory. Eddy characteristics are determined from the time series of eddy trajectories from individual Lagrangian drifter such as the eddy radial scale, eddy velocity scale, eddy Rossby number, and eddy-background kinetic energy ratio. A long-term dataset of the SOund Fixing And Ranging float time series obtained near the California coast by the Naval Postgraduate School from 1992 to 2004 at depth between 150 and 600 m (http://www.oc.nps.edu/npsRAFOS/) is used as an example to demonstrate the capability of the deterministic-stochastic EMD.