Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, General & Theoretical Computer Science Keywords: Computational Social Choice; Election Control; Multi-winner Election; Social Influence; Influence Maximization
Online: 7 September 2020 (04:11:59 CEST)
Nowadays, many political campaigns are using social influence (SI) in order to convince voters to support/oppose a specific candidate/party. In election control via SI problem, an attacker tries to find a set of limited influencers to start disseminating a political message in a social network of voters. A voter will change his opinion when he receives and accepts the message. In constructive case, the goal is to maximize the number of votes/winners of a target candidate/party, while in destructive case, the attacker tries to minimize them. Recent works considered the problem in different models and presented some hardness and approximation results. In this work, we consider multi-winner election control through SI on different graph structures and diffusion models, and our goal is to maximize/minimize the number of winners in our target party. We show that the problem is hard to approximate when voters' connections form a graph, and the diffusion model is the linear threshold model. We also prove the same result considering an arborescence under independent cascade model. Moreover, we present a dynamic programming algorithm for the cases that the voting system is a variation of straight-party voting, and voters form a tree.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0464.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: Remittances; democrac; election process; Bangladesh; labour migrants
Online: 20 May 2021 (09:41:25 CEST)
This paper examines how remittances contribute to the democratisation process in Bangladesh. The endogeneity issue between remittances and democracy is tackled by employing the Structural VAR (SVAR) approach. It is found that while remittances respond to innovations in the macro-political variables, remittances also have important impact on these variables. Our results build a synergy between two opposing findings in the politics literature where on one hand remittances flows stabilise autocracies, while on the other hand they foster the prospect for democratisation. In particular, we demonstrate that a shock in remittances flows will have a negative but transitory impact on democracy. Initially there will be a bout of autocratic episodes which will be eventually eliminated and democracy will be restored to its original level in three to five years. However, using an alternative measure for democracy with the aid of principal-component analysis, we find that after the fifth year following a shock in remittances flows, a small but positive permanent effect on democracy is observable that do not revert to zero at end of the ten period horizon.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0594.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: docker swarm; leader election; privilege escalation; defense evasion; cloud
Online: 25 May 2021 (08:57:28 CEST)
With the advent of microservice-based software architectures, an increasing number of modern cloud environments and enterprises use operating system level virtualization, often referred to as containers. Docker Swarm is one of the most popular container orchestration infrastructures, providing high availability and fault tolerance. Occasionally discovered container escape vulnerabilities allow adversaries to execute code on the host operating system and operate within the cloud infrastructure. We show that docker swarm is currently not secured against misbehaving manager nodes and allows a high impact, high probability privilege escalation attack that we refer to as leadership hijacking. Cloud lateral movement and defense evasion payloads allow an adversary to leverage the docker swarm functionality to control each and every host in the underlying cluster. We demonstrate an end-to-end attack, in which an adversary with access to an application running on the cluster achieves full control of the cluster. To reduce the probability of a successful high impact attack, container orchestration infrastructures must reduce the trust level of participating nodes and in particular, incorporate adversary immune leader election algorithms.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0247.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: game theory; matching pennies game; opposition parties; election boycott
Online: 14 August 2018 (06:03:37 CEST)
By studying game theory, we find that the Nash equilibrium does not exist in some games or, if there is in one, does not describe a real event. Here we show that the matching pennies game with pure strategy has the solution, but this solution is a game that happens simultaneously with this game. Using this solution, we will answer the Brookings Institution's question of boycotting the elections whether the opposition's boycott of elections is, in different circumstances, a defeated strategy. A strategy that its result in most cases is a failure or political suicide and the least possible consequence by the opposition. The findings of this article show that in general, it can be concluded that the election boycott strategy is a dominated strategy, and most of the opposition groups that have used it have failed and they donated the playground to the ruling group.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0235.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: president election; renewable energy; energy future; public opinion; polarization
Online: 31 August 2016 (08:34:50 CEST)
As the leader of the largest economy, President of the United States has substantive influence on addressing the global climate change problem. However, presidential election is often dominated by issues other than energy problems. This paper focuses on the on-going 2016 presidential election, examining the energy plans proposed by the leading Democrat and Republican candidates. Our data from the Iowa caucus survey in January 2016 suggests that voters are more concerned about terrorism and economic issues than environmental relative issues. We then compare the Democratic and Republican candidate’s view of American’s energy future, and evaluate their proposed renewable energy targets. We find that the view on renewable energy is polarized between Democratic and Republican candidates, while candidates from both parties agree on the need for energy efficiency. Results from our ordinal least squares regression models suggest that Democratic candidates have moderate to ambitious goals for developing solar and other renewable energy. The Republican candidates favor fossil fuel and they neglect to provide any plan for renewable energy. In addition, this trend of polarization has grown more significant when compared with the past three presidential elections. Our observation suggests that energy issues need to be discussed more to draw broader attention to salient issues of diversifying and decarbonizing the nation’s energy system.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0238.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: NLP; NLU; Twitter; Sentiment Analysis; Opinion Mining; Nigeria; Election; Machine Learning; BERT; LSTM; SVM
Online: 17 October 2022 (12:01:42 CEST)
Introduction: Social media platforms such as Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, among others have been used as a tool for staging protests, opinion polls, campaign strategy, medium of agitation and a place of interest expression especially during elections. Past studies have established people’s opinion elections using social media posts. The advent of state-of-the-art algorithms for unstructured text processing implies tremendous progress in natural language processing and understanding. Aim: In this work, a Natural Language framework is designed to understand Nigeria 2023 presidential election based on public opinion using Twitter dataset. Methods: Raw datasets concerning discourse around Nigeria 2023 elections from Twitter of 2,059,113 18 dimensions were collected. Sentiment analysis was performed on the preprocessed dataset using three different machine learning models namely: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network, Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and Linear Support Vector Classifier (LSVC) models. Personal tweet analysis of the three candidates provided insight on their campaign strategies and personalities while public tweet analysis established the public’s opinion about them. The performance of the models was also compared using accuracy, recall, false positive rate, precision and F-measure. Results: LSTM model gave an accuracy, precision, recall, AUC and f-measure of 88%, 82.7%, 87.2% , 87.6% and 82.9% respectively; the BERT model gave an accuracy, precision, recall, AUC and f-measure of 94%, 88.5%, 92.5%, 94.7% and 91.7% respectively while the LSVC model gave an accuracy, precision, recall, AUC and f-measure of 73%, 81.4%, 76.4%, 81.2% and 79.2% respectively. Conclusion: The experimental results show that sentiment analysis and other Natural Language Processing tasks can aid in the understanding of the social media space. Results also revealed the leverage of each aspirant towards winning the election. We conclude that sentiment analysis can form a general basis for generating insights for election and modeling election outcomes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0365.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Computational Mathematics Keywords: Hopfield Neural Networks; Election Algorithm; Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm; Exhaustive Search; Random Satisfiability; Logic Programming
Online: 30 January 2020 (11:46:31 CET)
Election Algorithm (EA) is a powerful metaheuristics model motivated by phenomena of the socio-political mechanism of the presidential election conducted in many countries. EA is selected as a topic of discussion due to its capability and robustness to carry out complex problems in the random-2SAT logic program. This paper utilizes a hybridized EA assimilated with the Hopfield neural network (HNN) in carrying out random logic program (HNN-R2SATEA). The efficiency of the proposed method was compared with the existing traditional exhaustive search (HNN-R2SATES) model and the recently introduced HNN-R2SATICA model. From the result obtained, clearly proven that based on our proposed hybrid model outperformed other existing model based on the Global Minima Ratio (ZM), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Execution Time (ET). The expected outcome portrays that the EA algorithm outperformed the other two algorithms in doing random-kSAT logic program. The results proved the robustness, effectiveness, and compatibility of the HNN-R2SATEA model.