ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0420.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: communication model, volcanic eruption, contingency planning, risk management, Sinabung
Online: 23 August 2018 (16:06:15 CEST)
This study aims to find a communication model of contingency plan for disaster risk management of Sinabung Volcano eruption, in North Sumatera. The object of the research is communication and coordination across the government, non-government organization, and community. This study used planning theory, the concept of communication planning, and types of disaster management plan as tools for analysing. Descriptive qualitative is used as the method. Data collection was obtained from the focus group discussion (FGD), in-depth interviews, observation, and study documentation. There are three stages in descriptive qualitative research that is data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. An analysis was conducted qualitatively on the program and competence actors. The results found the communication model of disaster risk management through documents of contingency planning to overcome the threat of Mount Sinabung eruption. During the emergency response period a core model was used to reduce the impact of the Mount Sinabung eruption. The contingency plan becomes the Karo District Government’s document. This document were authorized by an authorized official and is ready to be applied to the Emergency Response Operation Plan. Plans for emergency response operations are carried out based on information regarding damage and the need to obtain results of a quick review. Contingency plans are submitted to the legislature for political commitment and support and budget allocation.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0024.v1
Subject: Engineering, General Engineering Keywords: sustainability; socio-technical transitions; contingency theory
Online: 2 February 2023 (02:55:56 CET)
With a worldwide growing concern for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on human health and the environment, transportation has become a central theme in mitigation, responsible for 14% of human GHG emissions. To build endurance to climate change, transportation services must adapt to the current scenario and act quickly to avert future changes. Deeply rooted changes in socio-technical systems will be necessary to achieve significant CO2 reduction and secure the well-being of future generations. This study's objective is to comprehensively review the current state of carbon mitigation in the transportation sector. This is done through a systematic literature review engrained in the socio-technical transition theory and the structural theory of contingency. Twenty-six review papers covering 2,983 original articles are selected for full-text examination concerning carbon emissions in transportation. Enablers, barriers, benefits, disadvantages and metrics in carbon emissions reduction are identified, and a comprehensive framework is built. Results provide a view of the current sustainability scenario in transportation and allow a better understanding of the factors influencing carbon emission initiatives in transportation and its outcomes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0021.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Effect size; correlation coefficient; association measure; covariance; mean square contingency coefficient; mean square effect half-size; Pearson’s Phi; 2 × 2 table; binary crosstab; gross crosstab; contingency table
Online: 1 September 2021 (14:28:47 CEST)
Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is in crisis, in part due to bad methods, which are understood as misuse of statistics that is considered correct in itself. This article exposes two related common misconceptions in statistics, the effect size (ES) based on correlation (CBES) and a misconception of contingency tables (MCT). CBES is a fallacy based on misunderstanding of correlation and ES and confusion with 2 × 2 tables, which makes no distinction between gross crosstabs (GCTs) and contingency tables (CTs). This leads to misapplication of Pearson’s Phi, designed for CTs, to GCTs and confusion of the resulting gross Pearson Phi, or mean-square effect half-size, with the implied Pearson mean square contingency coefficient. Generalizing this binary fallacy to continuous data and the correlation in general (Pearson’s r) resulted in flawed equations directly expressing ES in terms of the correlation coefficient, which is impossible without including covariance, so these equations and the whole CBES concept are fundamentally wrong. MCT is a series of related misconceptions due to confusion with 2 × 2 tables and misapplication of related statistics. The misconceptions are threatening because most of the findings from contingency tables, including CBES-based meta-analyses, can be misleading. Problems arising from these fallacies are discussed and the necessary changes to the corpus of statistics are proposed resolving the problem of correlation and ES in paired binary data. Since exposing these fallacies casts doubt on the reliability of the statistical foundations of EBM in general, we urgently need to revise them.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0255.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Care home; Long-term care; Social care; Preparedness; Contingency plan; Safety culture; Workforce; Survey
Online: 9 June 2021 (10:52:34 CEST)
(1) Background: Nursing homes’ preparedness in managing a public health crisis has been fragile, with effects on safety culture. The objective of this study was to assess nursing homes’ COVID-19 preparedness in Southern Portugal, including personnel’s work experiences during the pandemic. (2) Methods: We used a COVID-19 preparedness checklist to be completed by management teams, followed by follow-up calls to nursing homes. Thereafter, a survey to personnel was applied. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis, and thematic analysis of open-end questions. (3) Results: In total, 71% (138/195) of eligible nursing homes returned the preparedness checklist. We conducted 83 follow-up calls and received 720 replies to the personnel survey. On average, 25% of nursing homes did not have an adequate decision-making structure to respond to the pandemic. Outbreak capacity and training were fragile areas among nursing homes’ contingency plans. We identified compliance with procedures and nonpunitive response to mistakes as fragile areas of safety culture, and teamwork as a strong safety area. (4) Conclusions: To strengthen how nursing homes cope with upcoming phases of the COVID-19 pandemic or future public health emergencies, nursing homes’ preparedness and safety culture should be fostered and closely monitored.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0109.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy & Fuel Technology Keywords: combined simulation; power and gas interdependence; security of supply; transient gas simulation; scenario analysis; power system contingency
Online: 22 November 2016 (09:33:38 CET)
Gas and power networks are tightly coupled and interact with each other due to physically interconnected facilities. In an integrated gas and power network, a contingency observed in one system may cause iterative cascading failures, resulting in network wide disruptions. Therefore, understanding the impacts of the interactions in both systems is crucial for governments, system operators, regulators and operational planners, particularly, to ensure security of supply for the overall energy system. Although simulation has been widely used in the assessment of gas systems as well as power systems, there is a significant gap in simulation models that are able to address the coupling of both systems. In this paper, a simulation framework that models and simulates the gas and power network in an integrated manner is proposed. The framework consist of a transient model for the gas system and a steady state model for the power system based on AC-Optimal Power Flow. The gas and power system model are coupled through an interface which uses the coupling equations to establish the data exchange and coordination between the individual models. The bidirectional interlink between both systems considered in this studies are the fuel gas offtake of gas fired power plants for power generation and the power supply to LNG terminals and electric drivers installed in gas compressor stations and underground gas storage facilities. The simulation framework is implemented into an innovative simulation tool named SAInt (Scenario Analysis Interface for Energy Systems) and the capabilities of the tool are demonstrated by performing a contingency analysis for a real world example. Results indicate how a disruption triggered in one system propagates to the other system and affects the operation of critical facilities. In addition, the studies show the importance of using transient gas models for security of supply studies instead of successions of steady state models, where the time evolution of the line pack is not captured correctly.
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: E-commerce; Cross Border e-commerce; Export Marketing Strategy (EMS); E-commerce drivers; Contingency model; Micro, Small and Meduim Sized Enterprise (MSME)
Online: 5 October 2021 (08:13:39 CEST)
For better export performance in cross border e-commerce, a contingency model integrates e-commerce into traditional export marketing strategy (EMS) with internal and external determinants of EMS. However, EMS of Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) is understudied. This study validates and modifies existing model for MSMEs. As a qualitative study, multiple sources of data including interviews, internal documents, and group discussions were used regarding business cases of entrepreneurs and supporting organizations in Mongolia and Korea. This research suggets contingency model for MSMEs with modified factors and different strategies in each factor. Specifically, intermal determinants are managerial capability, product competitiveness, and strategic marketing orientation. External determinants are export market competitivceness, export market infrastructure and entry barriers. EMS for MSMEs consists of the same factors with the original model but come up with different strategies. Theoretical and managerial implications were discussed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0632.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: EU legislation; plant health; invasive alien species; Fusarium circinatum; pitch canker; contingency plan; Pest risk analysis (PRA); international standards for phytosanitary measures (ISPMs); EPPO Standards
Online: 31 July 2018 (22:45:32 CEST)
The increase in arrivals of new forest pests highlights the need for effective phytosanitary legislation and measures. This paper introduces legislation targeted at prevention and management of potential introductions of forest pests and pathogens. A summary is given on plant health regulations on a global and regional level with detailed information on the situation in the European Union (EU). The current and new European legislation is discussed and a particular focus is given on eradication and contingency plans for Fusarium circinatum.