Groundwater Response to Hurricane-Induced Vegetation Loss in a Humid Coastal System

Large-scale vegetation disturbances can significantly affect evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater dynamics in humid, shallow aquifer systems, but these impacts are difficult to isolate due to climatic variability. This study examines the effects of vegeta-tion loss on ET, groundwater recharge, and water table response in Bay County, Flori-da, following Hurricane Michael (2018). Historical analyses of precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (RET), and groundwater depth were integrated with physically based groundwater modeling using an enhanced ICPR4/ StormWise framework that explicitly incorporates ET and vegetation-dependent crop coefficients. Trend and cor-relation analyses show weak precipitation–groundwater relationships but a strong in-verse relationship between daily RET and groundwater depth (r = −0.74), indicating that ET exerts a dominant short-term control on groundwater fluctuations. Model simulations driven by observed precipitation reveal that interannual rainfall variabil-ity governs recharge and can mask vegetation-driven ET effects. When precipitation was held constant, reduced ET in the post-hurricane landscape increased groundwater recharge and elevated water tables, with a 4.5% reduction in ET producing a 7.8% in-crease in recharge and water-table rises of up to 1 ft (0.30 m). These results highlight the importance of ET-inclusive modeling for evaluating post-disturbance groundwater responses in coastal aquifer systems.