System Dynamics Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Indian Cattle: Epidemiological Insights for Effective Prevention Strategies

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious transboundary animal disease causing substantial productivity losses and economic burdens in livestock systems. This study aimed to examine FMD transmission dynamics in Indian cattle populations and to evaluate the potential impact of key control strategies using a system dynamics approach. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered–Carrier (SEIRC) model was developed to represent disease progression, incorporating causal loop diagrams and stock-and-flow structures to capture feedback mechanisms and time delays inherent to FMD epidemiology. Model simulations were conducted by systematically varying critical parameters, including the basic reproduction number (R₀), duration of infectivity, vaccination coverage, persistence of the carrier state, and duration of movement restrictions during outbreaks. The results indicated that higher R₀ values accelerated disease spread and increased peak infection levels, while shorter infectious periods resulted in more abrupt outbreaks. Vaccination coverage of at least 75% effectively stabilized the susceptible population and reduced epidemic risk. In simulated scenarios, an R₀ of 4 combined with a 14-day infectious period led to the elimination of infectious animals. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrated control strategies, particularly high vaccination coverage and timely movement restrictions, for reducing outbreak magnitude and duration, and provide evidence-based insights to support FMD prevention and control planning in endemic settings.