Submitted:
22 October 2025
Posted:
23 October 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
- Physically based recovery of the instantaneous active power, which takes into account the real efficiency of the inverter at any time, without relying on indirect metrics such as power factor, which are often unstable at high loads.
- Construction of an internal median of the hourly power, used as a reference profile to identify deviations, losses and atypical behavior. This allows objective detection of deficiencies compared to the typical behavior of the installation without the need for external reference data.
- Comparison with climatically conditioned reference profiles, based on long-term climate models that take into account solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological factors valid for the specific location of the installation. Through them, the real efficiency factor is calculated and cases of technical, not climatic, energy deficit are identified.
- Analysis of the dynamic behavior of the inverter, including load, power changes over time (ramp-rate), reactive intervention and compliance with regulatory limits. In addition, a spectral analysis of the quality of electricity is performed, including harmonic content and the presence of DC in the output.
2. Literature Review
- the ability to quickly track rapid changes in irradiance (clouds, wind gusts),
- stability and low oscillation around the MPP in partial shading,
- the interaction with DC bus limits and quasi-steady-state efficiency of the converter (avoiding frequent transitions to low-efficiency modes and clipping).
- Grid Compatibility: IEEE 1547/RfG requirements impose functions that change the current and reactive power setting and indirectly model the DC load. Enabled Volt/VAR/Volt/Watt control affects the MPP position under AC side constraints.
- Modeling and Verification: Sandia Inverter Model parameterization, validated against EN 50530, provides a robust relationship between DC conditions and AC output. PI is suitable for fleet comparisons and early regression detection.
- Control and Filters: LCL + PR/active damping minimizes current harmonics and losses, improving efficiency over a wide range of load conditions, which is critical at low DC voltages/clouds.
- Data and climate: Climate variability (fast cloudiness, dust episodes) for SEE (incl. Bulgaria) requires a valid hourly (or finer) resource from PVGIS/NASA POWER and, if necessary, climate normalization with PECD.
3. Description and Objectives of the Study
- to build a detailed inverter operating profile - energy, load, dynamics, and , on physically recovered active power;
- to introduce an operational indicator for deficit relative to the internal median and to clearly distinguish it from curtailment;
- to integrate a climate basis for reporting (daily and total) and climate-adjusted energy deficit .
4. Notations
5. Theoretical Foundation
- DC voltage ;
- DC current ;
- AC phase voltages/currents ;
- active/reactive power ,;
- power factor ;
- inverter efficiency ;
- internal temperature
- PLL: estimates , from through a PI controller on .
- Outer loop – one of two strategies:
- maintaining (or output active power );
- MPPT of DC/DC, which sets a reference power/current to the inverter.
- Inner current loop in :
- Current limitation:
- Voltage/modulation limitation:
- PQ-capabilities:
- Harmonic norms:
- energy balances ;
- efficiency assessment/MPPT-use;
- verification of compliance with restrictions (current, PF, THD);
- correlations to external factors (illuminance, temperature, market regimes).
- The photo part is:
- The open voltage is:
- MPPT “incremental conductivity” (algorithmic criterion) is:
- THD (from FFT/DFT):
- TDD and DC component:
- “Ellipse” of the work area:
- Limit on required minimum PF:
- Means and variance:
- Ramp-rate (rate of change):
- Capacity factor и PR:
6. Methods and Algorithms for Analysis and Evaluation
7. Numerical Realization
7.1. Input Data and Their Processing
-
DC input to the inverter:
- () – instantaneous DC power [];
- and - string/MPPT voltages and currents (average DC voltage is also used as an indicator of illumination).
-
AC side and power quality:
- reactive power [];
- power factor (dimensionless, sign not significant for analysis).
-
Conversion efficiency:
- instantaneous inverter efficiency (in %) – normalized to .
- Operational by day (median of 5-min for the respective day);
- Deficit intervals (marked for );
- Energy balance versus .
-
PVGIS/seriescalc (ERA5 or SARAH-2) [28] – expected PV power [] per hour for the given geometry and losses at location coordinates.
- If is unknown, a request is made with (resulting in the form ) and calibrated with machine towards clear noons/high percentiles:
- The input to the model is after interpolation to a 5-min step.
- Copernicus C3S SIS Energy – PECD (PV Capacity Factor) [32] – hourly for the region and the numerical input is:where is calibrated robustly to the observed peaks/energy (e.g., with 99th percentile or Huber regression without a free term).
-
NASA POWER (hourly) [30]– hourly meteorological/solar covariates that are used as input to a regression model for :
- ALLSKY_SFC_SW_DWN () [],
- T2M [], WS10M [], (by choice RH2M [%]).
- Time zone and DST: all hourly climate series are transferred to the location of the studied PV Plant (winter/summer time) to match local SCADA times.
- Resampling: 60→5 min linear interpolation is performed, as well as a check for jumps at hourly boundaries.
- Low resource filter: windows with of capacity or are ignored (to avoid twilights and artificial zeros) for estimation.
- Capacity calibration: Percentile scaling or Huber regression on clear noons is used where there is no nameplate for peak power.
- control: TRIP/RESTART (rapid drop to ≈0 and recovery) and intervals with obvious network limitation are trimmed during calibration/training.
- Energies and powers from SCADA: Daily energy ; distributions , , ramp-rate , diagrams,
- PR (climatically coordinated):where (preferred), or (NASA)
- Curtailment (climatically coordinated):with low resource filters.
- Diagnostics with residues:as a function of time of day, temperature, wind.
- SCADA core: #Time (5 min), (), →; for illumination; (), cos() for and control.
- Internal basis: (median per hour) – only for operational comparisons (, deficit intervals, energy balance).
-
Climatic basis:
- PVGIS → [, per hour],
- PECD → ,
- NASA POWER → covariates (, , ) for .
7.2. Results
7.3. Discussion of the Obtained Results
- Predictable daily movement (stable “PV bell”). The hourly median is smooth and the IQR is narrow around noon → easy planning and more accurate forecasts; less operational risk from sudden surprises in the peak area.
- Continuity and high availability. Cumulative energy grows without long “platforms” → no long shutdowns. The nine TRIP/RESTARTs are short, indicating good overall system health.
- Excellent power quality. and ~0.10% time below 0.95; cloud is around → consistent mode , minimal reactive deviations and high compatibility with grid code.
- "Soft" power dynamics. ; rare high ramps are short and associated with clouds/restarts → less need for aggressive ramp-rate limits and low probability of flicker/voltage stresses.
- High efficiency in the operating area. at nominal loads → low conversion losses and good match between DC resource and AC output.
- Lack of systematic clipping. The observed , and do not form a wide plateau at the ceiling → the inverter/sizing is adequate for the available solar resource in the window under consideration.
- Operational observability and early warning of deviations. Internal “hourly median” gives a quick indicator when the day is below typical (186 short “deficits”) → easy targeting of O&M attention without complex external models.
- Good data quality. Uniform 5-min resolution (median ), consistent channels (, , , ) → reliable KPIs and robust statistics.
- Engineering flexibility towards KPI. The profile is ready for direct addition with climate base (PVGIS/PECD/NASA) → quick transition to "official" PR and climate-aligned without reworking the entire pipeline.
- The profile is operationally robust and compatible with grid practice: no systematic clipping, , moderate ramp-rate values.
- If the aim is an official report (), integrating PVGIS/PECD for the same window will give an absolute “bar” and will turn operational “deficits” into a quantitative loss compared to the potential.
- It is advisable to monitor dynamic tails () — although rare, they are markers for “stressful” meteorological events; in future smoothing requirements, these cases are a target for local management.
- TRIP/RESTART are few and short, but correlation with alarm events is useful to confirm that they do not have a common recurring cause.
8. Conclusions
- Physically-informed recovery of from SCADA via and , which avoids numerical instabilities at and provides reliable input for all subsequent KPIs.
-
A unified method for inverter profiling at 5-min resolution that combines:
- diurnal median profile with IQR (robust description of the "typical day"),
- percentile load indicators (, , ),
- formalized ramp-rate distribution with as a grid-relevant KPI,
- analysis as an injection quality index,
- curve for estimating conversion losses.
- An operational referent (internal hourly median) and a formal “shortfall” detector, defined as segments of minimum duration, which provides an automated “below typical” indicator without external meteorological inputs. A clear distinction is shown between this indicator and the notion of .
-
Climate-friendly production coordination: a two-tier framework for external bases is proposed:
- direct PV base (PVGIS, PECD) with stable capacity calibration via percentile scale () or robust regression (Huber, no free term), and
- explanatory base (NASA POWER) via robust regression with “clean interval” filter rules.
- 5.
- Reproducible analytical chain with clearly defined inputs, filters, aggregations and figures (A–K), exported KPI tables and graphs.
- 6.
- A diagnostic matrix for O&M, in which the residuals can be mapped by hour/temperature/wind for detection of shading, thermal effects, etc. - a proposal that links scientific analysis with direct operational actions.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time Moment (Time index) |
— | Discretization 5 min (Median ) |
|
| Time Step | |||
| Hour of Day | |||
| Calendar Date | — | Local Time (Europe) | |
| Sum of Times | — | For Energies/Units | |
| Median | — | Sustainable Statistics | |
| -percentile (quantile) | — | e.g., , | |
| IQR | Inter-Quartile Range | — | |
| Positive Part | — | ||
| ( | \cdot | ) | Absolute Value |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC Power to Inverter | From | ||
| Inverter Efficiency | — | From | |
| AC Active Power | Restored: | ||
| Reactive Power | From | ||
| Power Factor (Sign) | — | From | |
| ( | \mathrm{PF} | (t)) | Absolute |
| Aggregated DC Voltage | Average of | ||
| Aggregated DC Currents | A | Average of |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Produced Energy | |||
| Daily Energy | |||
| Ramp-Rate | over 5 min | ||
| ( | _{95}) | 95th percentile of ( | |
| , | Percentile Levels | For "upper" levels | |
| Observed Maximum | No clipping if no plateau |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Hourly Median Power | "Typical Day" (Weather-Sensitive) |
||
| Cumulative Energy on an Internal Basis | |||
| Operational Relative to | — | Median of per day | |
| "Deficit" Intervals | — | Segments | |
| Total Deficit Relative to |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Reference Power (Total) |
PVGIS/PECD/NASA model | ||
| Expected PV Power from PVGIS | By geometry/losses | ||
| PVGIS Power Normalized (per 1 ) |
For scale calibration | ||
| Scale to Real Capacity | |||
| Capacity Factor (PECD) |
— | 0…1 | |
| Scale to | |||
| Regressive (NASA) |
|||
| Global Radiation at Horizon | NASA POWER: hourly | ||
| Temperature at 2 m | NASA POWER | ||
| Wind at 10 m | m/s | NASA POWER |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | — | ||
| Overall | — | ||
| Climate-Friendly "Deficit" (Curtailment) |
|||
| Residual against |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zenith Angle of the Sun | ° | in Geometric Base | |
| Exponent in Geometric Base | — | ||
| Inclination of the Modules | ° | PVGIS parameter | |
| Azimuth (0°= South) | ° | PVGIS parameter | |
| ILR | DC:AC coefficient (Inverter Loading Ratio) |
— | Design parameter |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point in Plane | |||
| ( | \mathrm{PF} | <0.95) | Deviation Indicator |
| TRIP/RESTART | Shutdown/Restart Events | — | Number and Times of Events |
| Symbol | Designation | Units | Range / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in Regression/Calibration | — | Larger on clear afternoons | |
| Set of "Pure" Intervals | — | For calibration | |
| Indicator Function | — | Optionally in Algorithms |
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