Submitted:
10 September 2025
Posted:
12 September 2025
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
1.1. Literature Review
1.2. Methodology Used
2. Accident History of Cruise Ships and LNG Tankers
2.1. Safety Status of LNG Transport and the Cruise Industry
- Costa Concordia (2012) – Capsized after grounding off the Isola del Giglio, resulting in 32 fatalities.
- Carnival Triumph (2013) – After a fire in the engine room, the ship was without propulsion for four days, severely affecting passenger conditions.
- Orient Queen (2020) – was severely damaged in the ammonium nitrate explosion in Beirut, later capsized and killed two people.
- Star Princess (2006) – A fire broke out on deck, reportedly caused by an unattended cigarette, resulting in one death and 13 injuries from smoke inhalation.
- Royal Pacific (1992) – Collision with a Taiwanese fishing trawler in the Straits of Malacca, resulting in 30 deaths and 70 injuries, exacerbated by a faulty emergency response system.
2.2. Cruise Ship Exposure and Accident Trends
2.3. LNG Tankers’ Exposure and Accident Trends
3. Safety Features of Large LNG-Fuelled Cruise Ships Compared to Conventional Oil-Fuelled Cruise Ships
3.1. Hazards of LNG as Marine Fuel
3.2. LNG as Marine Fuel: Regulation, Adoption, and Cruise Sector Integration
3.3. Safety Risks of LNG Storage, Bunkering, and Passenger Exposure
| Seriousness of the accident by location | 15-60 kGT | 60-90 kGT | 90-180 kGT | > 180 kGT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Serious | 77 | 138 | 435 | 69 | 719 |
| At Sea | 3 | 3 | 13 | 19 | |
| Estuary/River | 2 | 2 | |||
| In Port/Harbour/Dock | 11 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 52 |
| Restricted Waters | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Shipyard/Dry Dock | 1 | 1 | |||
| Not known | 62 | 119 | 398 | 63 | 642 |
| Serious | 18 | 22 | 80 | 20 | 140 |
| At Sea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Canal | 1 | 1 | |||
| In Port/Harbour/Dock | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Restricted Waters | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Shipyard/Dry Dock | 1 | 1 | |||
| Not known | 10 | 18 | 76 | 19 | 123 |
| Total | 95 | 160 | 515 | 89 | 859 |
4. Formal Safety Assessment (FSA): Methodology and Limitations
- The financial capacity of ship owners/operators to implement risk mitigation measures.
- The economic valuation of human life in the context of regulatory decision-making.
- The relationship between a ship’s economic activities and the associated social risk acceptance criteria.
4.1. Individual and Societal Risk Assessment of LNG-Fuelled Passenger Ships
4.2. Event Tree Analysis for LNG-Fuelled Cruise Ships
5. Results and Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Abbreviations
References
- S&P Maritime Portal Sea-Web Casualty & Events Database, Available online: https://maritime.ihs.com, accessed 27 December 2024, 7 June 2025, 19 June 2025.
- Eliopoulou E.; Papanikolaou A.; Voulgarellis M. Statistical analysis of ship accidents and review of safety level, Safety Science 2016, 85, 282−292. [CrossRef]
- Eliopoulou, E.; Alissafaki, A.; Papanikolaou, A. Statistical analysis of accidents and review of safety level on passenger ships. Journal of Marine Science and Marine Engineering 2023, 11(2), 410. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) (2024), Annual overview of marine casualties and incidents 2024, Available online: Publications - Annual Overview of Marine Casualties and Incidents 2024 - EMSA - European Maritime Safety Agency.
- Vidmar P.; Perkovic M. Methodological approach for safety assessment of cruise ship in port, Safety Science, 2015, 80, 189–200. [CrossRef]
- Perkovic, M.; Gucma, L.; Przywarty, M.; Gucma, M.; Petelin, S.; Vidmar, P. Nautical Risk Assessment for LNG Operations at the Port of Koper. Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2012, 58, 607–613. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- TGE Gas Engineering GmbH, Podruznica Ljubljana. Sprejemni terminal utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina in plinsko-parna elektrarna, November 2007, Available online: http://frinko.mk/documents/doc_download/731-proekt-za-izgradba-plinska-centala-zastruja-tge-broura-final-.html.
- Aneziris, O.; Koromila, I.; Nivolianitou, Z. A systematic literature review on LNG safety at ports. Safety Science 2020, 124, 104595. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Iannaccone T.; Landucci G.; Scarponi E. G.; Bonvicini S.; Cozzani V. Inherent safety assessment of alternative technologies for LNG ships bunkering, Ocean Engineering 2019, 185, 100–114. [CrossRef]
- Ahola, M.; Murto, P.; Kujala, P.; Pitkänen, J. Perceiving safety in passenger ships – User studies in an authentic environment. Safety Science 2014, 70, 222–232. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vanem E.; Antao P.; Østvik I.; Del Castillo de Comas F. Analyzing the risk of LNG carrier operations, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2008, 9, 1328–1344. [CrossRef]
- Society of International Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators (SIGTTO) (2019), SIGTTO at 40 Years 1979–2019, A Commemorative SIGTTO Anniversary Publication 2019. Available online: https://www.sigtto.org/media/2903/sigtto-at-40-years.pdf.
- SEA-LNG, Available online: Safety - SEA-LNG.
- SHELL LNG Outlook 2024, Available online: LNG Outlook 2024 | Shell Global.
- Rundmo, T. Safety climate, attitudes and risk perception in Norsk Hydro. Safety Science 2000, 34, 47–59. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Siu O., L.; Phillips D., R.; Leung, T.-W. Safety climate and safety performance among construction workers in Hong Kong: the role of psychological strains as mediators. Accident Analysis & Prevention 2004, 36, 359–366. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brave S.; Nass C. Emotion in human computer interaction. In: Jacko, J., Sears, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Human– Computer Interaction. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2002, Mahwah, NJ, 251–271.
- Flin, R.; Mearns, K.; O’Connor, P.; Bryden, R. Measuring safety climate: identifying the common features. Safety Science 2000, 34, 177–192. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Davies P. A.; Fort E. LNG as a marine fuel: Likelihood of LNG releases, Journal of Marine Engineering & Technology 2013, 12:3, 3−10. [CrossRef]
- International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP). (2019). Risk assessment data directory - Process release frequencies, Report 434-01. Available online: https://www.iogp.org/bookstore/product/risk-assessment-data-directory-process-release-frequencies.
- Society for Gas as a Marine Fuel (SGMF), Formal Safety Notice, No.: FSN 22-02, date 04.07.2022 – Recommended actions to prevent LNG leakages from DD-CC hose bunkering/transfer system connections.
- Fu S.; Yan X.; Zhang D.; Li C.; Zio E. Framework for the quantitative assessment of the risk of leakage from LNG - fueled vessels by an event tree-CFD, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 2016, 43, 42–52. [CrossRef]
- Kumar, S.; Kwon H., T.; Choi K., H.; Lim, W.; Cho, J.H.; Tak, K.; Moon, I. LNG: an eco-friendly cryogenic fuel for sustainable development. Applied Energy 2011, 88, 4264–4273. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Davies P.A.: Greener fuels may not make shipping safer – here’s why. The Conversation Academic rigor, journalistic flair. Published: May 17, 2018, 8:44am EDT.
- Lee S.; Seo S.; Chang D. Fire risk comparison of fuel gas supply systems for LNG fuelled ships, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering 2015, 27, 1788-1795. [CrossRef]
- Li J.; Huang Z. Fire and explosion risk analysis and evaluation for LNG ships, International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology, Procedia Engineering 2012, 45, 70-76. [CrossRef]
- Lois P.; Wang J.; Wall A.; Ruxton T. Formal safety assessment of cruise ships, Tourism Management 2004, 25, 93–109. [CrossRef]
- Fowler T. G.; Sorgard E. Modeling ship transportation risk, Risk Analysis 2000. [CrossRef]
- Ronza A.; Felez S.; Darbra R.; Carol S.; Vilchez J.A.; Casal J. Predicting the frequency of accidents in port areas by developing event trees from historical analysis, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 2003, 16, 551-560. [CrossRef]
- Vanem E.; Antão P.; Del Castillo de Comas F.; Skjong R. Formal Safety Assessment of LNG Tankers, 10th International Symposium on Practical Design of Ships and Other Floating Structures Houston, Texas, United States of America, 2007, American Bureau of Shipping, Available online: Formal_Safety_Assessment_of_LNG_tankers20210928-9258-1kl9tn3.pdf.
- Aneziris, O.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Konstantinidou, M.; Nivolianitou, Z. Integrated risk assessment for LNG terminals. J. Loss Prev. Process Ind. 2014, 28, 23–35. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vidmar P.; Perkovic M.; Brcko T. Safety assessment for a cruise ship terminal, Scientific Journals Maritime University of Szczecin, 2013, 36 (108) z. 1 pp. 168–176 Available online: Safety assessment for a cruise ship terminal, Scientific... - Google Scholar.
- Woodward J.L.; Pitblado R.M. LNG Risk Based Safety: Modelling and Consequence Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2010; pp. 20-37 and 50-74. [CrossRef]
- Department of Energy; Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Port Delfin LNG Project Deepwater Port Application Appendix R - Major LNG Incidents, November 2016, Available online: Volume II of Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Port Delfin LNG Project Deepwater Port Application.
- Cruise Market Watch. Available online: Growth | Cruise Market Watch (accessed on 02.01.2025).
- CLIA - Cruise Lines International Association; State of the Cruise Industry Report, May 2024, Available online: 2024 State of the Cruise Industry Report | CLIA UK.
- U.S. Coast Guard. Cruise ship semi-annual newsletter of the USCG cruise ship national center of expertise (CSNCOE), Summer 2018, Issue 19, Available online: Microsoft Word - Issue #19 Summer 2018 Edition.
- Wikipedia, Available online: List of maritime disasters in the 21st century - Wikipedia, MS Empress of Australia - Wikipedia, Carnival Sunrise - Wikipedia, Pacific Encounter - Wikipedia.
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2008), Maritime Safety Committee 85th session MSC85/17/1 Formal Safety Assessment FSA – Cruise ships, (Submitted by Denmark), Available online: 17-1.doc.
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2008), Maritime Safety Committee 85th session MSC85/INF.2 Formal Safety Assessment FSA – Cruise ships, Details of the Formal Safety Assessment (Submitted by Denmark), Available online: http://martrans.org/documents/2011/fsa/MSC_85-INF-2.pdf.
- Society for Gas as a Marine Fuel (SGMF), LNG as a marine fuel - an introduction, FP-00-01-07 - Version 5.0, May 2023. Available online: Shop - SGMF.
- Chamberlain G.A.; Management of large LNG hazards, 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006, Available online:https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=3f560a5006c597a9b8bc5abb0108070063d932bf.
- Vanderbroek L.; Berghmans J. Safety aspects of the use of LNG for marine propulsion, International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology, Procedia Engineering 2012, 45, 21 – 26. [CrossRef]
- Wang S.; Notteboom T. The Adoption of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a Ship Fuel: A Systematic Review of Perspectives and Challenges, 2014. [CrossRef]
- International association of ports and harbors (IAPH). IAPH Clean Marine Fuels WG | IAPH.
- International Organization for Standardization (ISO). ISO 20519:2021 Ship and marine technology-Specification for bunkering of liquefied natural gas fuelled vessels. Available online: ISO - New ISO standard for the safe bunkering of LNG-fuelled ships.
- International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) (2024). International Standard IEC 60079-14, Edition 6.0, Available online: IEC 60079-14:2024 | IEC.
- The North of England P&I Association Limited. LNG as a marine fuel, 2019 Available online: All Publications: A full list of all North’s wide ranging publications.
- SEA-LNG, A view from the bridge 2023 - 2024 LNG – Leading Maritime Decarbonization, Available online: 24-01-28_FINAL_A_View_From_The_Bridge_2024.pdf.
- International Maritime Organization (IMO), Future Fuels and Technology Project, Available online: http://futurefuels.imo.org.
- DNV Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI), Available online: Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) for the shipping industry.
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2024), Marine Environment Protection Committee 82nd session MEPC 82/6/38 ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF SHIPS “Report of fuel oil consumption data submitted to the IMO Ship Fuel Oil Consumption Database in GISIS (Reporting year: 2023)” (Note by the Secretariat).
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2018). MSC-MEPC.2/Circ.12/Rev.2 Revised Guidelines for Formal Safety assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process. Available online: Formal Safety Assessment.
- Spouge, J. Risk Acceptance Criteria and Risk Based Damage Stability. Final Report, part 1: Risk Acceptance Criteria. 2015-02-24, European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA).
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2007), Maritime Safety Committee 83rd session MSC83/21/1 Formal Safety Assessment FSA – Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Carriers, (Submitted by Denmark), Available online: Microsoft Word - 21-1.doc.
- International Maritime Organization (IMO) (2007), Maritime Safety Committee 83rd session MSC83/INF.3 Formal Safety Assessment FSA – Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Carriers, Details of the Formal Safety Assessment (Submitted by Denmark), Available online: Microsoft Word - INF-3.doc.
- Duijm N.J.; Acceptance criteria in Denmark and the EU, Danish Ministry of the Environment 2009. Available online: https://www2.mst.dk/udgiv/publications/2009/978-87-7052-920-4/pdf/978-87-7052-921-1.pdf).
- Lehr, W.J.; Simecek-Beatty D. Comparative threat from LNG and fuel oil maritime accidents, International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2017, 01, 3151-3162. [CrossRef]












| Accident type | 20-60 kGT |
60-90 kGT |
90-180 kGT |
180+ kGT |
Total N |
Share | AF N/E |
RP 1/AF |
| Collision | 30 | 16 | 20 | 1 | 67 | 12.5% | 1.02 10-2 | 98.3 |
| Contact | 30 | 23 | 25 | 4 | 82 | 15.3% | 1.24 10-2 | 80.3 |
| Fire/Explosion | 38 | 25 | 40 | 3 | 106 | 19.7% | 1.61 10-2 | 62.1 |
| Hull/Machinery Damage | 107 | 56 | 77 | 240 | 44.7% | 3.64 10-2 | 27.4 | |
| Foundered | 1 | 1 | 0.2% | 1.52 10-4 | 6578 | |||
| Stranded | 26 | 10 | 5 | 41 | 7.6% | 6.22 10-3 | 160.7 | |
| All accidents (N) | 232 | 130 | 167 | 8 | 537 | 100% | 8.15 10-2 | 12.3 |
| All accidents (N%) | 43.2% | 24.2% | 31.1% | 1.5% | 100% | 100% | ||
| Fleet exposure (E) | 3,037 | 1,627 | 1,816 | 107 | 6,587 | |||
| Fleet exposure (E%) | 46.1% | 24.7% | 27.6% | 1.6% | 100% | |||
| Accidents freq. (AF) | 7.64 10-2 | 7.99 10-2 | 9.20 10-2 | 7.48 10-2 | 8.15 10-2 | 3.25 10-1 | ||
| Relative risk (N% / E%) | 0.94 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 0.92 | ||||
| Normalized AF share | 23.6% | 24.7% | 28.5% | 23.1% | 100% | 100% | ||
| Return period RP (1/AF) | 13.1 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 13.4 | 12.3 |
| Accident type | 20-60 kGT |
60-90 kGT |
90-180 kGT |
>180 kGT |
Total N |
Share | AF N/E |
RP 1/AF |
| Collision | 1 | 2 | 23 | 26 | 22.8% | 2.79 10-3 | 358.2 | |
| Contact | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7.0% | 8.59 10-4 | 1164.0 | |
| Fire/Explosion | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 9.6% | 1.18 10-3 | 846.5 | |
| Hull/Machinery Damage | 7 | 21 | 32 | 60 | 52.6% | 6.44 10-3 | 155.2 | |
| Foundered | ||||||||
| Stranded | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7.9% | 9.66 10-4 | 1034.7 | ||
| All accidents (N) | 12 | 29 | 73 | 114 | 100% | 1.22 10-2 | 81.7 | |
| All accidents (N%) | 10.5% | 25.4% | 64.0% | 100% | 100% | |||
| Fleet exposure (E) | 740 | 808 | 7,764 | 9,312 | ||||
| Fleet exposure (E%) | 7.9% | 8.7% | 83.4% | 100% | ||||
| Accidents freq. (AF) | 1.62 10-2 | 3.59 10-2 | 9.40 10-2 | 1.22 10-2 | 6.15 10-2 | |||
| Relative risk (N% / E%) | 1.32 | 2.93 | 0.77 | |||||
| Normalized AF share | 26.4% | 58.4% | 15.3% | 100% | 100% | |||
| Return period RP (1/AF) | 61.7 | 27.9 | 106.4 | 81.7 |
| Ship size | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2031 | 2033 | Total |
| 15-60 kGT | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |||||||
| 60-90 kGT | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| 90-180 kGT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | |||
| > 180 kGT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |||||
| Total / yr | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 47 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).