Submitted:
17 April 2025
Posted:
18 April 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Questionnaire Design
2.3. Data Collection and Analysis
2.3.1. Data Collection
- I.
- Active involvement in farming within communal land systems.
- II.
- Dependence on infrastructure such as roads, bridges, fences, and soil erosion structures.
- III.
- Direct experiences with climate change impacts on farming activities.
2.3.2. Data Analysis
2.3.3. Empirical Model Specification: Multivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model
2.3.4. Independent and dependent Variables
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Level of Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Agricultural Resources and Infrastructure
| Affected Agricultural Resources and infrastructure | Less affected | Moderately affected | Highly affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Percent (%) | |||
| Bridges | 5 | 10 | 85 |
| Arable land | 7 | 12 | 81 |
| Dipping tanks | 13 | 32 | 55 |
| Fences | 22 | 15 | 63 |
| Roads | 5 | 8 | 87 |
| Soil Erosion Control structures | 2 | 17 | 81 |
3.3. Econometric Analysis: Multivariate Ordered Probit Regression Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Variables | Measurements | Percent (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | 1= Male | 72 |
| 2= Female | 28 | |
| Age | 1= 18-29 Years | 3 |
| 2=30-44 Years | 17 | |
| 3= 45-59 Years | 36 | |
| 4=60-70 Years | 42 | |
| 5= 71 or older | 2 | |
| Education | 1= No Education | 10 |
| 2= Primary school | 30 | |
| 3- High School | 55 | |
| 4= TVET College | 2 | |
| 5= University | 3 | |
| Type of farmer | 1= Subsistence Farmer | 18 |
| 2= Smallholder Farmer | 78 | |
| 3= Commercial farmer | 4 | |
| Duration of Observing Climate change | 1= Past 20 Years | 48 |
| 2= Past 10 Years | 33 | |
| 3= Past 5 Years | 12 | |
| 4= Last Years | 7 | |
| Access to climate change information | 1= Yes | 93 |
| 2= No | 5 | |
| 3= Not sure | 2 | |
| Source of climate change information | 1= Radio/TV | 93 |
| 2= Newspaper | 7 | |
| 3= Extension Officers | 0 | |
| Farming distance km | 1= less than 5km | 92 |
| 2= More than 5km | 8 | |
| Use of Indigenous knowledge | 1=Detect weather | 3 |
| 2= Restore soil & plant health | 87 | |
| 3= Treat livestock diseases | 8 | |
| 4= Purify water | 2 | |
| Level of impact by extreme weather events (EWEs) | ||
| Frost | 1= Low | 20 |
| 2=High | 48 | |
| 3= Extreme | 32 | |
| Strong Winds | 1= Low | 9 |
| 2=High | 43 | |
| 3= Extreme | 48 | |
| Flooding | 1= Low | 2 |
| 2=High | 17 | |
| 3= Extreme | 82 | |
| Drought | 1= Low | 18 |
| 2=High | 15 | |
| 3= Extreme | 67 | |
| Hail | 1= Low | 13 |
| 2=High | 47 | |
| 3= Extreme | 40 | |
| Variables | Bridges | Arable land | Dipping tanks | Fences | Roads | Soil Erosion Control structures |
| Coefficient (Standard Errors), p-value | ||||||
| Gender | 1.392 (1.074)0.195 | -0.346 (0.687), 0.615 | -1.040 (0.477), 0.029 ** | 0.772 (0.531), 0.146 | 3.224 (1.488), 0.030 ** | 2.499 (1.021), 0.014 ** |
| Age | -0.171 (0.369)0.645 | 0.518 (0.373), 0.164 | -0.162 (0.261), 0.535 | -0.006 (0.264), 0.982 | -0.374 (0.429), 0.383 | 0.056 (0.438), 0.898 |
| Education | -0.367(0.294)0.211 | -0.093 (0.302), 0.757 | -0.075 (0.249), 0.763 | -0.393 (0.228), 0.084 * | -0.352 (0.331), 0.287 | -0.136 (0.296), 0.645 |
| Type of farmer | 1.381 (0.776)0.075* | 0.183 (0.662), 0.782 | 1.698 (0.499), 0.001 *** | 0.426 (0.486), 0.381 | 2.239 (0.937), 0.017 ** | 1.546 (0.736), 0.036 ** |
| Duration of observing CC | -0.182 (0.288)0.527 | -0.171 (0.292), 0.557 | 0.206 (0.224), 0.358 | 0.255 (0.226), 0.258 | -0.146 (0.391), 0.709 | -1.066 (0.394), 0.007 *** |
| Access to CC info | 4.916 (677)0.994 | 5.434 (577.774), 0.992 | 1.729 (1.002), 0.084 * | 5.209 (345.225), 0.988 | 6.996 (560.984), 0.990 | 4.371 (509.127), 0.993 |
| Source of CC info | 4.606(1272)0.997 | -1.421 (0.998), 0.154 | 0.953 (0.818), 0.244 | -0.576 (0.824), 0.484 | 6.580 (769.737), 0.993 | -1.548 (0.879), 0.078 * |
| Farming distance km | 5.86511(883.6067)0.995 | 6.187 (606.253), 0.992 | 1.309 (0.947), 0.167 | 0.858 (0.836), 0.304 | 0.912 (1.228), 0.458 | -0.769 (1.010), 0.446 |
| Use of indigenous knowledge | 0.302(0.7195105)0.674 | 2.383 (1.281), 0.063 * | 0.394 (0.608), 0.517 | 1.015 (0.571), 0.076 * | -0.150 (0.929), 0.872 | 0.780 (0.766), 0.308 |
| Level of impact by frost | -0.341 (0.595)0.567 | 1.279 (0.563), 0.023 ** | 1.016 (0.430), 0.018 ** | -0.463 (0.413), 0.262 | 0.473 (0.653), 0.468 | 1.235 (0.663), 0.062 * |
| Level of impact by strong winds | 0.742 (0.4705906)0.115 | 0.844 (0.439), 0.054 * | -0.194 (0.394), 0.622 | 0.620 (0.381), 0.103 | 0.475 (0.656), 0.469 | 0.801 (0.500), 0.109 |
| Level of impact by Flooding | 0.923(0.471807)0.050** | 1.052 (0.581), 0.070 * | -2.249 (0.894), 0.012 ** | 0.591 (0.437), 0.176 | -0.809 (0.893), 0.365 | 0.779 (0.664), 0.241 |
| Level of impact by Drought | 1.392(1.073)0.195 | -0.471 (0.359), 0.189 | 0.130 (0.304), 0.668 | -0.441 (0.326), 0.175 | 1.046 (0.504), 0.038 ** | -0.145 (0.382), 0.705 |
| Level of impact by frost Hail | -0.171(0.3698)0.645 | -0.872 (0.542), 0.108 | -0.223 (0.366), 0.542 | 0.534 (0.382), 0.162 | -1.014 (0.622), 0.103 | -1.364 (0.631), 0.030 ** |
| LR Chi2(14) | 17.40 | 23.45 | 40.67 | 23.23 | 22.41 | 24.49 |
| Prob > Chi2 | 0.02357 | 0.0533 | 0.0002 | 0.0566 | 0.0707 | 0.0399 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.07977 | 0.3275 | 0.3525 | 0.2139 | 0.3883 | 0.3835 |
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