The Road Map to Digital Twin of Kyrenia: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Directions

1. Introduction

In order to improve decision-making processes, optimise resource allocation and enhance urban resilience, the concept of digital twins has been increasingly adopted in urban planning. The potential of digital twins for real-time data integration, simulation and urban analysis has been demonstrated by existing projects in cities such as Nicosia. However, these studies often focus on larger urban centres. This leaves a gap in understanding how digital twins can be tailored to smaller, culturally distinct cities such as Kyrenia. Theoretical frameworks for creating digital twins include data integration, simulation, and urban analytics, but there is a need for methodologies that consider the unique urban characteristics of Kyrenia.

Digital Twin Technology (DTT) has its roots in the early 2000s. when it was first introduced by Dr. Michael Grieves at the University of Michigan. Digital twins are virtual models of physical entities or systems. They allow for real-time monitoring, simulation and analysis. In the context of urban planning, digital twins offer the potential to simulate and analyse the performance of entire cities. This enables planners to make more informed decisions about infrastructure, resource management and environmental sustainability. Integrating real-time data from multiple sources, such as IoT devices and social media, has further enhanced the capabilities of DTT, enabling more accurate and dynamic representations of urban environments. The development of DTT has been driven by several key factors. These include the increasing availability of large datasets, advances in computing and simulation technologies, and the growing need for more efficient and sustainable urban planning solutions. These developments have contributed to rapid growth in the digital twin market, expected to reach $73,5 billion by 2025 .

The concept of digital twin technology (DTT) has its roots in the early 2000s when it was first introduced by Dr. Michael Grieves at the University of Michigan . Digital twins are virtual models of physical entities or systems, allowing for real-time monitoring, simulation, and analysis. In the context of urban planning, digital twins offer the potential to simulate and analyze the performance of entire cities, enabling planners to make more informed decisions regarding infrastructure, resource management, and environmental sustainability . The integration of real-time data from various sources, such as IoT devices and social media, has further enhanced the capabilities of DTT, allowing for more accurate and dynamic representations of urban environments . The evolution of DTT has been driven by several key factors, including the increasing availability of large datasets, advances in computing and simulation technologies, and the growing need for more efficient and sustainable urban planning solutions . These developments have contributed to the rapid growth of the digital twin market, which is expected to reach $73,5 billion by 2025 .

The applications of the digital twin have expanded beyond their origins in the aerospace and manufacturing industries to include the urban environment. Because of their benefits in improving the reliability of system management, they have been applied to smart cities and society, systems engineering, healthcare, utility processes and robotics. From an urban planning perspective, digital twins have the potential to enhance the understanding of cities through digital transformation and the integration of various state-of-the-art technologies. This opens up new possibilities for collective planning and decision-making. A digital twin system can be used as an interactive tool to support participatory decision making in urban planning and geodesign, by detecting problems in urban systems before they occur, or by identifying possible significant impacts in the physical world. Urban challenges such as climate change and cross-border movement of people and goods can also be addressed through digital twins.

Urban Digital Twin (UDT) has been identified as a potential technology for achieving digitally enabled positive urban change through landscape architecture and urban planning. It is currently unclear, however, how this new technology will impact on community resilience and adaptation planning. A scoping review of existing studies on the construction of UDTs identifies challenges and opportunities of UDT technologies for community adaptation planning. This review highlights the need for the integration of multi-agent interactions, artificial intelligence and coupled natural-physical-social systems into a human-centred UDTs framework to improve community infrastructure resilience. UDTs benefit coastal communities by providing capabilities such as three-dimensional (3D) visualization, augmented reality (AR), virtual city models, and forecasting. These capabilities allow for augmented and virtual interaction with the community, enabling planners to solve complex societal and environmental challenges.

The use of digital twins in urban planning has not been without its controversial aspects. Researchers have raised concerns about privacy and security, accuracy and reliability, ethics, integration with existing systems, technical complexity, decision uncertainty and environmental impact. There is also a lack of clarity about what constitutes a digital twin, how it differs from the traditional tools used by urban planners, and how the technology should be developed and used to facilitate workflows and collaboration with different stakeholders. Successful implementation requires designing for ease of use, acquiring new skills, strong managerial support and effective collaborative strategies. The challenges of using digital twins in an urban context are multifaceted. They include both technical and non-technical dimensions:

1-Technical Challenges: Integrating heterogeneous systems to create digital twins is a significant challenge. The complexity of implementation increases exponentially rather than linearly. This includes issues related to data format conversion, software licensing, standardisation, updates, technical skills and hardware requirements. Visualisation also poses challenges regarding smooth rendering, platform requirements and usability.

2-Non-technical challenges: These include regulatory and policy barriers, lack of stakeholder collaboration, privacy and security concerns, and the need for clear vision and KPIs. To reduce the risk of unanticipated large investments, it is essential to establish a common understanding of expected outcomes and develop appropriate performance indicators. In addition, the business model for digital twins is a significant non-technical challenge. This indicates a need for best practices and use cases to support better adoption.

Several cities have already implemented digital twins as part of their urban planning strategies:

- Singapore and Dubai: These cities have demonstrated how UDTs can significantly change how cities are managed and planned, focusing on sustainability and resilience .

- Norwegian Smart City Network: Cities like Stavanger have been active participants in initiatives deploying digital twins to monitor and manage their urban environment, focusing on specific aspects or contained areas of the city due to the complexity of integrating various data sources and systems .