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Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023
Version 1
: Received: 1 December 2023 / Approved: 4 December 2023 / Online: 4 December 2023 (11:35:44 CET)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
He, Y.-H.; Chan, P.-W. Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 31. He, Y.-H.; Chan, P.-W. Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 31.
Abstract
Hong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. Koinu was a very challenging case for TC forecasting and warning services due to its compact size and erratic movement over the northern part of the South China Sea. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges on the forecasting aspect of the severe typhoon. The predicted tropical cyclone track and intensity from both conventional models and emerging artificial intelligence models are examined, as well as local wind and rainfall forecast. Experience in this case study showed that while deterministic global models only performed moderately and were not able to adequately support early warning, a regional model and AI models could more effectively support decision making for operational tropical cyclone warning service.
Keywords
tropical cyclone; track; intensity; wind; rainfall
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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