Jian, J.; Chen, J.; Webster, P.J. Enhancement of Cruise Boat Resilience to Strong Convective Gusts with Global Model Cumulus Variable Prediction. J. Mar. Sci. Eng.2023, 11, 1588.
Jian, J.; Chen, J.; Webster, P.J. Enhancement of Cruise Boat Resilience to Strong Convective Gusts with Global Model Cumulus Variable Prediction. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, 1588.
Jian, J.; Chen, J.; Webster, P.J. Enhancement of Cruise Boat Resilience to Strong Convective Gusts with Global Model Cumulus Variable Prediction. J. Mar. Sci. Eng.2023, 11, 1588.
Jian, J.; Chen, J.; Webster, P.J. Enhancement of Cruise Boat Resilience to Strong Convective Gusts with Global Model Cumulus Variable Prediction. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, 1588.
Abstract
Ship pilots and maritime safety administration have an urgent need for more accurate and earlier warnings on strong wind gusts. This study firstly investigates the “Oriental Star” cruise ship cap-sizing event in 2015, one of the deadliest shipwreck events in recent years, and explores all related hydro-meteorological components in a global mesoscale model. It is found that, rather than the missing signal in raw surface wind prediction, the cumulus precipitation variable (CP) increases dramatically during the accident occurrence, which significantly corresponds to the sub-grid strong wind gust. The effective lead-time can be extended from 24hr (deterministic model) to 48hr (en-semble model). This finding is then verified in another two recent deadly cruise boat accidents. The introduction of the new variable is bearing the hope of improvement to the current maritime safeguard system, on predicting sub-grid strong wind gusts for small-size cruise boats in offshore and inland rivers. Finally, an automatic-response system is developed to provide economical con-vection prediction via Inmarsat email communication, aiming to explore operational severe con-vective gust early-warning and appropriate numerical mesoscale model application.
Keywords
Strong wind gust; early warning; ensemble forecasts; severe convection; auto-response system
Subject
Engineering, Marine Engineering
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
