Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Statistical Approach to Assess Chill and Heat Requirements of Olive Tree Based on Flowering Date and Temperatures Data: Towards Selection of Adapted Cultivars to Global Warming

Omar Abou-Saaid
ORCID logo ,
Adnane El Yaacoubi
ORCID logo ,
Abdelmajid Moukhli
,
Ahmed El Bakkali
ORCID logo ,
Sara Oulbi
,
Magalie Delalande
ORCID logo ,
Isabelle Farrera
ORCID logo ,
Jean-Jacques Kelner
,
Sylvia Lochon-Menseau
,
Cherkaoui El Modafar
,
Hayat Zaher
,
Bouchaib Khadari
*
Version 1 : Received: 13 October 2022 / Approved: 14 October 2022 / Online: 14 October 2022 (10:44:53 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 26 November 2022 / Approved: 29 November 2022 / Online: 29 November 2022 (01:05:59 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Abou-Saaid, O.; Yaacoubi, A.E.; Moukhli, A.; Bakkali, A.E.; Oulbi, S.; Delalande, M.; Farrera, I.; Kelner, J.-J.; Lochon-Menseau, S.; Modafar, C.E.; Zaher, H.; Khadari, B. Statistical Approach to Assess Chill and Heat Requirements of Olive Tree Based on Flowering Date and Temperatures Data: Towards Selection of Adapted Cultivars to Global Warming. Agronomy 2022, 12, 2975. Abou-Saaid, O.; Yaacoubi, A.E.; Moukhli, A.; Bakkali, A.E.; Oulbi, S.; Delalande, M.; Farrera, I.; Kelner, J.-J.; Lochon-Menseau, S.; Modafar, C.E.; Zaher, H.; Khadari, B. Statistical Approach to Assess Chill and Heat Requirements of Olive Tree Based on Flowering Date and Temperatures Data: Towards Selection of Adapted Cultivars to Global Warming. Agronomy 2022, 12, 2975.

Abstract

Delineating chilling and forcing periods is one of the challenging topics to understand how temperatures drive the timing of budburst and bloom in fruit tree species, especially when flowering data are limited to a short-term phenology data. Here, we investigated this question on olive trees, using flowering data collected over six years on 331 cultivars cultivated in the worldwide collection of Marrakech, Morocco. Using Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach on a long-term phenology (29 years) of Picholine Marocaine cultivar, we showed that the relevance of delineating chilling and forcing periods depends more on the variability of inter-annual temperatures than on the long-term datasets. In fact, chilling and forcing periods are similar between those delineated using datasets of 29 years and those of only six years (2014-2019). Furthermore, we demonstrated that the variability of inter-annual temperatures is the main factor explaining this pattern. We, then, used datasets of six years to assess chill and heat requirements, of 285 cultivars. We classified Mediterranean olive cultivars into four groups according to their chill requirements. Our results, using the kriging interpolation method, indicated that flowering dates of most of these cultivars (92%) were governed by both chilling and forcing temperatures.

Keywords

Olea europaea L.; flowering data; Partial Least Squares regression; Dynamic model; chill requirements; climate change; Mediterranean fruit tree; adapted cultivars.

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Agricultural Science and Agronomy

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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