Buffalo on the Edge: Factors affecting Historical Distribution and Restoration of Bison bison in the Western Cordillera, North America

The historic western edge of bison (Bison bison) range and the ecological processes that caused its formation are frequently debated with important implications for bison restoration in the Western Cordillera of North America. We test the hypothesis that a combination of bottom-up habitat suitability and top-down harvest pressure from Indigenous peoples were important processes in forming the western edge of bison distribution. Using 9,384 historical journal observations from 1691 – 1928, we employ MaxEnt ecological niche modelling to identify suitable bison habitat across the Western Cordillera from bottom-up climatic, land cover, and topographic factors. We then use mixed-effect logistic regression to test if bison occurrence in journal records can be explained by the abundance of Indigenous humans, wolves, or grizzly bears, in addition to MaxEnt-derived habitat suitability. We find support for our hypothesis based on the limited suitable habitat in the Rocky Mountains that likely prevented westward bison dispersal from core habitat, and the was a negative relationship between bison occurrence and human harvest pressure. On this basis, we propose that intensive human harvest from large Indigenous populations in the Western Cordillera, subsidized by other wildlife, salmon, and vegetation resources, is an underappreciated socioecological process that needs to be restored alongside bison populations. Co-managing bison with Indigenous people will also mitigate the adverse effects of overabundant bison and maximize the ecological and cultural benefits of bison restoration.