Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany

Version 1 : Received: 4 March 2021 / Approved: 5 March 2021 / Online: 5 March 2021 (11:46:46 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Luong, T.T.; Pöschmann, J.; Kronenberg, R.; Bernhofer, C. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany. Water 2021, 13, 1061. Luong, T.T.; Pöschmann, J.; Kronenberg, R.; Bernhofer, C. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning Based on Model Output of Soil Moisture: Case Study Wernersbach, Germany. Water 2021, 13, 1061.

Journal reference: Water 2021, 13, 1061
DOI: 10.3390/w13081061

Abstract

Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information is required to issue warn-ings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 hours, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996 – 2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The approach proved potential as an early flood indicator for head-catchments with limited available information.

Subject Areas

rainfall threshold; flash flood warning; antecedent soil moisture; BROOK90 model; EXTRUSO project

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