COVID-19 is an infectious disease, growth of which depends upon the linked stages of the epidemic, the average number of people one person can infect and the time it takes for those people to become infectious themselves. We have studied the COVID-19 time series to understand the growth behaviour of COVID-19 cases series. A structural break occurs in the COVID-19 series at the change time form one stage to another. We have performed the structural break analysis of data available for 207 countries till April 20, 2020. There are 42 countries which have recorded five breaks in COVID cases series. This means that these countries are in the sixth stage of growth transmission and show a downward pattern in reporting in the daily cases, whereas countries with two and three breaks, record the rapid growth pattern in the daily cases. From this study, we conclude that the more the breaks in the series, there is more possibility to determine the constant or decreasing rate of daily cases. It is well fitted using lognormal distribution as this distribution is archived at its highest peak after some period and then suddenly it decreases at a longer time period. This can be seen in various countries like China, Australia, New Zealand and so on.

As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is continuously increasing in India, so epidemiological modeling of COVID-19 data is urgently required for administrative strategies. Time series and is capable to predict future observations by modeling the data based on past and present data. Here, we have modeled the epidemiological COVID-19 Indian data using various models. Based on the collected COVID-19 outbreak data, we try to find the propagation rule of this outbreak disease and predict the outbreak situations in India. For India data, the time series model gives the best results in the form of predication as compared to other models for all variables of COVID-19. For new cases, new deaths, total cases and total deaths, the best fitted ARIMA models are as follows: ARIMA(0,2,3), ARIMA(0,1,1), ARIMA(0,2,0) and ARIMA(0,2,1). Based on time series analysis, we predict all variables for next month and conclude that the predictive value of Indian COVID-19 data of total cases is more than 20 lakhs with more than 43 thousand total deaths. The present chapter recommended that a comparison between various predictive models provide the accurate and better forecast value of the COVID-19 outbreak for all study variables.

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020. For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis. Maximum number of day’s data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) presents an enormous global healthcare challenge, especially among rural communities due to limited access. To overcome this, many low- and middle-income countries are resorting to task shifting, using community health workers (CHWs) for diabetes management. However, its successful implementation depends on the practice behaviours and knowledge of these workers. This cross-sectional study from rural South India aimed to evaluate the proficiency of 275 CHWs in diabetes screening and management. A customized questionnaire, developed through experts and government was used to evaluate the practice behaviours and knowledge. Analytical methodologies consisted of descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and mosaic plots for comprehensive data interpretation. Results showed significant deficiencies of mean correct practice behaviours at 48 and 50% respectively. The identified gaps included diabetes diagnosis, HbA1c testing, diet, self-management, complications screening and risk assessment. In several areas, correct practice behaviour was reported by a relatively large number of CHWs despite incorrect answers to the related knowledge questions such as referral to the health centres, self-management and calculation of diabetes risk assessment. Addressing these deficiencies requires a thorough needs assessment and tailored training for improved diabetes management by CHWs. Training of CHWs, should not only identify prior knowledge and/or behaviour but also their interrelationship to help create a robust and flexible set of practice behaviours.