Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Statistical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic Stages Worldwide

Version 1 : Received: 19 May 2020 / Approved: 20 May 2020 / Online: 20 May 2020 (04:24:15 CEST)

How to cite: Datta, R.; Trivedi, P.K.; Kumawat, A.; Kumar, R.; Bhardwaj, I.; Kumari, N.; Agiwal, V.; Kumar, S.; Kumar, A.; Shukla, A.; Kumar, J. Statistical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic Stages Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020050319 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0319.v1). Datta, R.; Trivedi, P.K.; Kumawat, A.; Kumar, R.; Bhardwaj, I.; Kumari, N.; Agiwal, V.; Kumar, S.; Kumar, A.; Shukla, A.; Kumar, J. Statistical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic Stages Worldwide. Preprints 2020, 2020050319 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202005.0319.v1).

Abstract

COVID-19 is an infectious disease, growth of which depends upon the linked stages of the epidemic, the average number of people one person can infect and the time it takes for those people to become infectious themselves. We have studied the COVID-19 time series to understand the growth behaviour of COVID-19 cases series. A structural break occurs in the COVID-19 series at the change time form one stage to another. We have performed the structural break analysis of data available for 207 countries till April 20, 2020. There are 42 countries which have recorded five breaks in COVID cases series. This means that these countries are in the sixth stage of growth transmission and show a downward pattern in reporting in the daily cases, whereas countries with two and three breaks, record the rapid growth pattern in the daily cases. From this study, we conclude that the more the breaks in the series, there is more possibility to determine the constant or decreasing rate of daily cases. It is well fitted using lognormal distribution as this distribution is archived at its highest peak after some period and then suddenly it decreases at a longer time period. This can be seen in various countries like China, Australia, New Zealand and so on.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; structural break; growth stage

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