ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0661.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: EUA; EU ETS; Spillover; Optimal weight; Hedging ratio; Sudden change
Online: 27 July 2020 (15:18:05 CEST)
With the rapid spread of carbon trading in the global economy, the interactions of prices between carbon (or clean/renewable energy) and traditional fossil energies such as coal and oil have raised growing attention, but little research have discussed their dynamic volatility spillover and time-varying correlation. The purpose of this study is to investigate these issues, for the weekly data of EUA futures, Biofuel and Brent oil prices from 25 October 2009 to 5 July 2020. We employ the VAR-GARCH model with the BEKK specification. Our results are summarized as follows. At first, we identified the sudden changes and the volatility persistence in the three markets, and also confirmed that the volatility of the markets has changed significantly over time. Secondly, we find that there are a weak volatility spillover effect among the three markets, while a strong spillover effect between the EUA and Brent oil markets. Lastly, in financial markets, the EUA can be used as a hedging portfolio for the Biofuel and Brent oil markets. These results can help investors to well compose their portfolios and manage their investment risks, and help potential pollutant emission sources to join in carbon market in a cost-effective way.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0352.v1
Subject: Engineering, Marine Engineering Keywords: risk connectedness; network approach; value-at-risk; international stock market; extreme risk
Online: 20 March 2023 (07:57:54 CET)
We analyze the upside and downside risk connectedness among international stock markets. We characterize the connectedness among international stock returns using the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach and compute the upside and downside value-at-risk. We document that the connectedness level of the downside risk is higher than that of the upside risk and that stock markets are more sensitive when the stock market declines. We also find that specific periods (e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 turmoil) intensify the spillover effects across international stock markets. Our results demonstrate that the EU, Ger-many, and the US acted as net transmitters of dynamic connectedness; however, Japan (JP), China (CH), and India (IN) acted as net receivers of dynamic connectedness during the sample period. These findings provide significant new information to policymakers and market participants.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0430.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: oil price; maritime freight rate; asymmetry; dependence; copula; decomposition
Online: 16 November 2020 (15:33:46 CET)
Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market in three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the strongest channel. Therefore, it investigates the relationship between oil prices and three major maritime freight rates; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). We employ the decomposition method, not studied in the existing literature. The copula approach identifies the time-varying effects and asymmetry in the tail dependence structure between oil prices and freight rates. The main results of this analysis are as follows. The decomposed components display different conditional dependence patterns, and asymmetry is revealed in the upper and lower tail dependence. In the long run, we find more dependence in extreme periods like the financial crises. In short-run fluctuations, we find the dependence increases in an economic boom. The implications of the results suggest that dependence can vary over time and may change depending on extreme events, implying that the complementary strategies of the long run and short run should be different.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0229.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: cryptocurrency; double long memory (LM); structural breaks (SBs); efficient market hypothesis; ARFIMA-FIGARCH model
Online: 13 December 2022 (07:03:26 CET)
This study estimates the effects of double long memory and structural breaks on the persistence level of six major cryptocurrency markets. We apply the Bai and Perron’s structural break test, Inclán and Tiao’s iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm, and the fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) model with different distributions. The results show that long memory and structural breaks characterize the conditional volatility of cryptocurrency markets and confirm our hypothesis that ignoring structural breaks leads to an underestimation of the persistence of volatility modelling. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH model with structural breaks and a skewed Student–t distribution fits the cryptocurrency market’s price dynamics well.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0314.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: energy poverty; economic growth; energy governance; multidimensional poverty
Online: 16 August 2021 (09:00:19 CEST)
During the last two decades, energy poverty has captured a growing attention of researchers and policymakers due to its strong association with economic poverty and poor economic performance. This study uses a broad set of macro level indicators and makes the first attempt to measure energy poverty and its impact on economic growth of Pakistan over the period 1990 to 2017. In particular, our energy poverty indicator considers four main dimensions of energy poverty, namely, energy services, clean energy, energy governance and energy affordability. Our main results show that though the overall energy poverty has reduced in Pakistan during the selected sample period, the country shows an increasing dependence on polluted energy supply in order to meet its growing demand of energy. In second stage of the investigation, we test the neoclassical growth theory where we incorporate energy poverty along with human capital as source of economic growth. Our cointegration results reveal a strong relationship between energy poverty and economic growth that is also dynamically stable in short run. These strong negative linkages between energy poverty with economic growth for the sample economy complement the previous literature on the subject.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0291.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Coronavirus Disease 2019; Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression; Portfolio Weight; Hedging Effectiveness
Online: 10 June 2021 (12:07:58 CEST)
This paper examines interlinkages and hedging opportunities between nine major cryptocurrencies for the period between 30 September 2015 and 4 June 2020, which notably includes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak lasting from early 2020 through the end of the sample period. The results of dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) analysis using a minimum connectedness approach show a high degree of correlation between cryptocurrencies throughout the sample period. However, the correlations reach their minimum values during the COVID-19 pandemic, which indicates that cryptocurrencies acted as a hedge or safe haven during the stressful period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The weight of cryptocurrencies was significantly reduced and their hedging effectiveness varied greatly during the pandemic, which indicates that investors’ preferences changed during the COVID-19 period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0335.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: air quality; extreme weather; MA-MSD method; investor sentiment; behavioral finance
Online: 14 December 2020 (13:13:36 CET)
We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the equity returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we use dummy variables created by employing a moving average and moving standard deviation. The important results are as follows. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative influence on the equity returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative impacts on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the weather effect of the abnormal temperature on the stock returns is greater in severe bearish market. Whereas the effect of the air pollution on the stock returns is greater in the bullish market. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analyzing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0171.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: Air quality; Extreme weather; MA-MSD method; Investor sentiment; Behavioural finance
Online: 7 August 2020 (04:08:44 CEST)
We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the stock market returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we apply dummy variables generated by applying a moving average and moving standard deviation. Our study provides several interesting results. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the more the Shenzhen stock returns drop, the greater the effect of the abnormal temperature is. Whereas, the more the Shenzhen stock returns increase, the greater the effect of the abnormal air quality is. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analysing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0235.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Bitcoin; economic policy uncertainty; spillover; wavelet coherence analysis; quantile cross-spectral dependence
Online: 18 May 2022 (03:15:25 CEST)
In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0265.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Finance Keywords: currency market; commodity market; stock market; risk factors; nonlinear de-pendence; spillover network
Online: 20 May 2022 (02:27:30 CEST)
The widespread integration and growing dependence among currency, stock and commodity markets make these markets often very vulnerable to shocks and at risk of collapse at the same time. As a result, these trends threaten the sustainability of the entire financial system. In this study, we explore the spillovers and nonlinear dependences between the seven major foreign ex-change rates, crude oil and gold prices, a global stock price index, and oil and stock implied volatility indices as proxy variables for global risk factors by em-ploying directional spillover network approach. We also use multi-scale de-composition method and nonlinear causality test between these variables to capture multi-level relationships at short and long horizons. Major findings are summarized as follows. First, from the multi-scale decomposition analysis, we identify that Granger causality test results and the direction and strength of return spillovers change with the level of decomposition. Second, the results of nonlinear causality tests show variation in both the significance and direction of Granger causality relationships between the decomposed currency and other series at different timescales, especially for the decomposed oil, gold, and OVX series. Third, the measured directional spillover indices identify the EUR as the largest contributor of connectedness to the other series. The central role of the EUR is a net transmitter of connectedness to gold, oil, the GBP, JPY, and CHF.