Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Risks in Major Cryptocurrency Markets: Modelling Double Long Memory and Structural Breaks

Version 1 : Received: 11 December 2022 / Approved: 13 December 2022 / Online: 13 December 2022 (07:03:26 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Jiang, Z.; Mensi, W.; Yoon, S.-M. Risks in Major Cryptocurrency Markets: Modeling the Dual Long Memory Property and Structural Breaks. Sustainability 2023, 15, 2193. Jiang, Z.; Mensi, W.; Yoon, S.-M. Risks in Major Cryptocurrency Markets: Modeling the Dual Long Memory Property and Structural Breaks. Sustainability 2023, 15, 2193.

Abstract

This study estimates the effects of double long memory and structural breaks on the persistence level of six major cryptocurrency markets. We apply the Bai and Perron’s structural break test, Inclán and Tiao’s iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm, and the fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH) model with different distributions. The results show that long memory and structural breaks characterize the conditional volatility of cryptocurrency markets and confirm our hypothesis that ignoring structural breaks leads to an underestimation of the persistence of volatility modelling. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH model with structural breaks and a skewed Student–t distribution fits the cryptocurrency market’s price dynamics well.

Keywords

cryptocurrency; double long memory (LM); structural breaks (SBs); efficient market hypothesis; ARFIMA-FIGARCH model

Subject

Business, Economics and Management, Finance

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