ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0357.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science Keywords: GRACE; GRACE-FO; TWS; hydroclimatic; drought; flooding; Nile River Basin; Africa
Online: 18 January 2021 (15:14:32 CET)
This research assesses the changes in the total water storage (TWS) during the twentieth century and their future projections in the Nile River Basin (NRB) via TWSA (TWS anomalies) records from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), GRACE-FO (Follow-On), data-driven-reanalysis TWSA and land surface model (LSM), in association with precipitation, temperature records, and standard drought indicators. The analytical approach incorporates the development of 100+ yearlong TWSA records using a probabilistic conditional distribution fitting approach by the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape) model. The drought and flooding severity, duration, magnitude, frequencies, and recurrence were assessed during the studied period. The results showed, 1- The NRB between 2002 to 2020 has transited to substantial wetter conditions. 2- The TWSA reanalysis records between 1901 to 2002 revealed that the NRB had experienced a positive increase in TWS during the wet and dry seasons. 3- The projected TWSA between 2021 to 2050 indicated slight positive changes in TWSA during the rainy seasons. The analysis of drought and flooding frequencies between 1901 to 2050 indicated the NRB has ~64 dry-years compared to ~86 wet-years. The 100+ yearlong TWSA records assured that the NRB transited to wetter conditions relative to few dry spells. These TWSA trajectories call for further water resources planning in the region especially during flood seasons. This research contributes to the ongoing efforts to improve the TWSA assessment and its associated dynamics for transboundary river basins. It also demonstrates how an extended TWSA record provides unique insights for water resources management in the NRB and similar regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0042.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geoinformatics Keywords: GRACE TWS, GRACE-FO, Nile River Basin, Spatial autocorrelation, OLS, GWR.
Online: 4 September 2019 (13:26:12 CEST)
GRACE-derived Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) continue to be used in an expanding array of studies to analyze numerous processes and phenomena related to terrestrial water storage dynamics, including groundwater depletions, lake storage variations, snow, and glacial mass changes, as well as floods, droughts, among others. So far, however, few studies have investigated how the factors that affect total water storage (e.g., precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, evapotranspiration) interact and combine over space and time to produce the mass variations that GRACE detects. This paper is an attempt to fill that gap and stimulate needed research in this area. Using the Nile River Basin as case study, it explicitly analyzes nine hydroclimatic and anthropogenic processes, as well as their relationship to TWS in different climatic zones in the Nile River Basin. The analytic method employed the trends in both the dependent and independent variables applying two geographically multiple regression (GMR) approaches: (i) an unweighted or ordinary least square regression (OLS) model in which the contributions of all variables to TWS variability are deemed equal at all locations; and (ii) a geographically weighted regression (GWR) which assigns a weight to each variable at different locations based on the occurrence of trend clusters, determined by Moran’s cluster index. In both cases, model efficacy was investigated using standard goodness of fit diagnostics. The OLS showed that trends in five variables (i.e., precipitation, runoff, surface water soil moisture, and population density) significantly (p<0.0001) explain the trends in TWSA for the basin at large. However, the models R2 value is only 0.14. In contrast, the GWR produced R2 values ranging between 0.40 and 0.89, with an average of 0.86 and normally distributed standard residuals. The models retained in the GWR differ by climatic zone. The results showed that all nine variables contribute significantly to the trend in TWS in the Tropical region; population density is an important contributor to TWSA variability in all zones; ET and Population density are the only significant variables in the semiarid zone. This type of information is critical for developing robust statistical models for reconstructing time series of proxy GRACE anomalies that predate the launch of the GRACE mission and for gap-filling between GRACE and GRACE-FO.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0096.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Central Asia; GRACE; drought; vegetation; water storage; groundwater
Online: 6 September 2021 (13:15:03 CEST)
With the influences of climate change and human activities, the resources and environment of “One Belt and One Road” are facing severe problems and challenges. This study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamics of the drought environment and the response of vegetation cover to the drought by using drought indicators. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) drought severity index (GRACE-DSI) and GRACE water storage deficit index (GRACE-WSDI), were calculated to present hydrological drought. Moreover, based on GRACE, Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) model, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, the groundwater in Central Asia was retrieved to calculate the groundwater drought index called the GRACE Standardized Groundwater Level Index (GRACE-SGI). The results show that the annual precipitation in Central Asia increased slightly at a rate of 0.39 mm/year (p = 0.82) since 2000, while the temperature increased slightly at a rate of 0.05 ℃/year (p = 0.10). The water storage decreased significantly at -0.59 mm/year (p <0.01) and experienced a decrease-increase-decrease process. During the study period, the arid situation in Central Asia deteriorated, especially in the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea basin. From 2007 to 2015, the Central Asian environment was generally arid and suffered from different du-rations and degrees of hydrological and groundwater droughts. The drought indicators (i.e., GRACE-DSI, GRACE-WSDI) and the NDVI showed a significantly positive correlation during the growing season. However, the NDVI of cultivated land and grassland distribution areas in Central Asia showed a strong negative correlation with GRACE-SGI. It is concluded that the drought environment in Central Asia affected the growth of vegetation. The continued deterioration of the arid situation may further stress the ecological system in Central Asia.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0444.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geology Keywords: GRACE; Ocean Bottom Pressure; Earthquakes; Mediterranean Ridge accretionary complex.
Online: 22 January 2021 (12:15:52 CET)
Mediterranean Ridge accretionary complex (MAC) is one of the most critical subduction zones in the world. It is known that the region exhibits a continuous mass change (horizontal/vertical movements). This process is associated with the devastating and tragic earthquakes shaking the MAC for centuries. Here, we investigate the ocean bottom pressure (OBP) anomalies in the MAC derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellite missions. The OBP time series for the MAC comprises a decreasing trend in addition to 1-, 1.53-, 2.36-, 3.67-, and 9.17-year periodic components partially explained by the atmosphere, oceans, and hydrosphere (AOH) processes, and Earth's pole movement. We noticed that the OBP anomalies appear to link to a rising trend and periods in earthquakes' power time series. This finding sheds new light on the mechanisms controlling the most destructive natural hazard.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0410.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Streamflow depletion; trend analysis; irrigation; land use change; GRACE; water scarcity
Online: 17 September 2020 (13:20:04 CEST)
Water scarcity is a key challenge to global development. In Brazil, the Sao Francisco River Basin (SFB) has experienced water scarcity problems because of decreasing streamflow and increasing demands from multiple sectors. However, the drivers of decreased streamflow, particularly the potential role of surface-groundwater interaction, have not been yet investigated. Here, we assess long-term trends in baseflow, quickflow, and streamflow of the SFB during 1980–2015 and constrain the most likely drivers of observed decreases through trend analysis of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and terrestrial water storage change (TWS). We found that over 82% of the observed decrease in streamflow can be attributed to a significant decreasing baseflow trend (< -20 m3 s-1 y-1) along the SFR with spatial agreement between decreased baseflow, increased ET, and irrigated agricultural land. We also noted a decrease in TWS across the SFB with trends exceeding -20 mm y-1. Overall, our findings indicate that decreasing groundwater contributions (i.e., baseflow) is providing the observed reduction in total SFR flow. A lack of significant P trends indicates that only P variability likely has not caused the observed baseflow reduction, mainly in the Middle and Sub-middle SFB. Therefore, groundwater and surface withdrawals may be likely a driver of water scarcity over the SFB.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0057.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: HBV, GRACE, SMAP, ESA CCI SM v04.4, AMSR-E, Moselle River
Online: 5 September 2019 (10:14:35 CEST)
Although the complexity of physically based models continues to increase, they still need to be calibrated. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in using new satellite technologies and products with high resolution in model evaluations and decision-making. The aim of this study is to investigate the value of different remote sensing products and groundwater level measurements in the temporal calibration of a well-known hydrologic model i.e. HBV. This has been rarely done for conceptual models as satellite data are often used in spatial calibration of the distributed models. Three different soil moisture products from ESA CCI SM v04.4, AMSR-E and SMAP, and total water storage anomalies from GRACE are collected and spatially averaged over the Moselle River Basin in Germany and France. Different combinations of objective functions and search algorithms all targeting a good fit between observed and simulated streamflow, groundwater and soil moisture are used to analyse the contribution of each individual source of information. Firstly, the most important parameters are selected using sensitivity analysis and then, these parameters are included in a subsequent model calibration. The results of our multi-objective calibration reveal substantial contribution of remote sensing products to the lumped model calibration even if their spatially distributed information is lost during the spatial aggregation. Inclusion of new observations such as groundwater levels from wells and remotely sensed soil moisture to the calibration improves the model’s physical behaviour while it keeps a reasonable water balance that is the key objective of every hydrologic model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0261.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geophysics Keywords: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment; gravimetric land uplift rate modelling; GRACE; independent component analysis
Online: 25 January 2019 (15:08:15 CET)
The mantle mass flow interconnected with the process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the reformation of the Earth’s crust constantly perturbs the observed gravity field towards a hypothetic isostatic state. We analyse the temporal changes of the gravity field from the GRACE data, using different mathematical and/or statistical methods to detect the GIA amidst other gravity signals. A number of gravimetric post-glacial land uplift rate (LUR) modelling methods are investigated and compared with the data from a total number of 515 GPS stations and preferred GIA forward models in Fennoscandia and North America. We investigate three mathematical methods, namely regression, principal component, and independent component analysis (ICA) to extracting the GIA signal from the GRACE monthly geoid heights. We use some regularization techniques to exploit the GRACE monthly data to their maximum spatial resolution and to increase the Signal to Noise Ratio of their short wavelengths. Near the centres of the study areas the gravimetric LUR model using the fast-ICA algorithm of Hyvärinen and Oja (2000) is shown to be in a complete agreement with the GPS data and the predictions of the GIA forward models, and for the whole areas, subject to epeirogeny movement of the two regions, their discrepancies reach to the extrema at -1.8 and +3.3, and -4.5 and +7.5 mm/a, respectively. We show that the largest discrepancies between the gravimetric model using the ICA method and the GIA forward model, occur for the sub-regions likely collocated with strong ice mass change signals.