A Cognitive Predictive Model of Air Traffic Controller’s Mental States

This paper presents the development and implementation of a psychological model aimed at predicting the mental states of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs) within an Exploratory research project, entitled CODA (The Controller Adaptative Digital Systems Assistant), within the SESAR 3 Joint Undertaking and European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme. The proposed model aims to advance human–machine collaboration in air traffic management by enabling the precise prediction of critical operator cognitive and affective states, including mental workload, fatigue, stress, and attentional engagement. By formally integrating core cognitive processes—namely perception, comprehension, and decision-making—within its architecture, the model provides a principled framework for the continuous monitoring and real-time adaptation of support systems. Such adaptive capabilities are intended to optimize the allocation of assistance provided by artificial agents, thereby strengthening human–system coordination and contributing to enhanced operational safety and efficiency within the complex and highly dynamic environment of air traffic control. To estimate the parameters of the model, several air traffic simulations were conducted with expert controllers. In these simulations changes to traffic situations were introduced. Those changes could affect the controllers' mental states. The results of these changes were observed in the measured verbal and psychophysiological dependent variables. This paper presents results that partially validate the initial parameters of the models. These results will contribute to a future improvement of the model by refining the parameters of the proposed formulas for calculating mental workload, fatigue, stress, and vigilance in the air traffic control task.