Predicting Potential Global Distribution of the Invasive Species Aethina tumida Murray (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), and Its Natural Enemies Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser, 1955)

Invasive alien species threaten agricultural and natural ecosystems security. Aethina tumida Murray (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), a globally recognized quarantine pest of honeybees, poses severe threats to colony health and apicultural sustainability. Whereas Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser, 1955), an entomopathogenic nematode, exhibits biocontrol potential agent of this pest. This study used MaxEnt and CLIMEX models to predict the global potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Result indicate that temperature and precipitation are the core environmental factors that constrain their distribution. Under current climatic conditions, both models demonstrate that suitable habitats for A. tumida is primarily located in South America, southern Africa, and South Asia, whereas S. carpocapsae exhibits a broader, spread almost globally. Notably, CLIMEX predicts a more extensive suitable range than the MaxEnt model for two species. MaxEnt predict result indicate suitable habitat of A. tumida expansion into North America, Europe and central Australia, while S. carpocapsae is expected to expand to Asia, North America, and Africa. Under both the A1B and A2 climate scenarios, the highly suitable habitat for both pests decreases significantly, whereas moderately and marginally increases markedly. Collectively, the results provide key scientific basis and decision-making support for the precise prevention and control of invasive pests.