A Risky and Potentially Costly Future: Implications of Climate -Induced Changes in Groundwater and Flooding for Coastal Dairy Farming in New Zealand

Climate change poses significant risks to New Zealand’s coastal agriculture through both slow-onset hazards (e.g., gradual sea-level–induced groundwater rise) and sudden-onset hazards (e.g., increasing frequency and severity of storms). These physical changes threaten the productivity and economic viability of coastal farms. However, few studies assess their combined economic impacts in a manner that supports land-use planning. This paper presents a conceptual framework to examine the implications of interacting slow- and sudden-onset climate hazards for New Zealand dairy farms, informed by real-world consultation with subject-matter experts to support feasibility analysis. We draw conclusions that illustrate the monetary impacts on farms associated with potential absorptive, adaptive, and transformational responses. The findings highlight the critical role of timing as environmental conditions deteriorate under climate change, as well as the need for policy frameworks that recognize and monetize the contribution of ecosystem services provided by coastal vegetation habitats to social, cultural, and environmental wellbeing. Incorporating these values into present-day financial decision-making is essential for supporting climate-related financial risk reduction and long-term land-use planning. Without such frameworks, the most beneficial land-use transitions are unlikely to be affordable or sustainable in New Zealand, especially towards year 2100.