Disruptiveness and Resilience in a Global Timber Trade Network: Modeling Underload Cascading Failures and Structural Vulnerability

This study constructs a global timber trade network (2004-2023) to model underload cascading failures, assessing node-level disruptiveness and resilience. The network has grown structurally integrated, with density rising and path length shortening. Export-oriented economies (e.g., Canada, Vietnam) prove more susceptible to cascading failures than import-oriented ones (e.g., China, Japan), confirming upstream-to-downstream failure propagation. Node disruptiveness is heterogeneous: major exporters (Canada, Germany) cause the largest efficiency losses, while intermediaries (South Africa) impair connectivity. Out-strength and betweenness centrality are key determinants of disruptiveness. Resilience in 2023 varies widely; China's diversified sourcing enhances its resilience, whereas the U.S., Japan, and South Korea face higher vulnerability due to supply concentration. Overall, declining resilience among major importers underscores growing systemic risks. Although strategic diversification improves individual positions, large-scale disruptions remain a considerable threat, highlighting the imperative for optimized sourcing and robust contingency planning to stabilize global timber flows.