System Readiness Assessment for Emerging Multimodal Mobility Systems Using a Hybrid Qualitative–Quantitative Framework

This paper introduces a hybrid framework for assessing the technical feasibility and system readiness of emerging multimodal mobility concepts, with a focus on the Pods4Rail project. The methodology combines qualitative and quantitative approaches to address the inherent uncertainty of early design phases. The qualitative component evaluates Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) for individual subsystems using expert judgment and visual heat maps, identifying critical challenges in automation, digitalization, and sustainability. The quantitative approach distinguishes between the probabilistic model—representing the uncertainties in TRL and IRL—the problem of propagating these uncertainties to estimate the System Readiness Level (SRL), and the algorithm used to solve this problem, which in this case is Monte Carlo simulation. This framework enables SRL estimation under uncertainty, where explicit quantification of uncertainties is essential for sound decision-making. Results indicate that Pods4Rail project currently falls between SRL 1 and SRL 2, corresponding to concept refinement and technology development stages. While subsystems such as the Transport Unit and Rail Carrier Unit exhibit higher maturity, planning and logistics remain less developed. By combining interpretative insights with statistical rigor, this framework provides a comprehensive readiness assessment and supports informed decision-making for future integration and risk management. The proposed approach is transferable to other innovative mobility systems facing similar challenges in early development stages.