Telecoupling Perspective on the Evolution and Driving Factors of Virtual Cropland Networks in Global Wheat Trade

International agricultural trade plays a crucial role in balancing the global food supply and demand while facilitating the cross-regional allocation of cropland resources. This study examines the virtual cropland flows embedded in international wheat trade. Utilizing the telecoupling framework and wheat trade data from eight time points between 1995 and 2023, we developed a global virtual-cropland-flow network. Social network analysis (SNA) was used to characterize the structural features and identify telecoupling systems, whereas the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) regression was applied to analyze the driving factors. The findings reveal that (1) the virtual cropland network shows structural vulnerability and evolutionary complexity amid increasing connectivity, with an overall rise in density and significant fluctuations in the average clustering coefficient and path length. (2) The network exhibits a distinct telecoupling structure. The sending system has shifted from U.S.-Canada dominance to a multipolar pattern involving Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and the United States. The receiving systems mainly comprise Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with China as the core inflow country. The United States and France, supported by major transnational agribusinesses, act as key spillover systems, consistently holding a high betweenness centrality. (3) Economic development and foreign demand significantly promote the establishment and intensification of trade relationships between countries. Geographical distance has a dual effect: it strongly negatively influences trade initiation but can be overcome by high complementarity between countries during trade deepening. (4) Although international wheat trade effectively conserves global cropland resources, it also introduces systemic risks and environmental spillovers in some countries. Developing nations that are highly dependent on wheat imports, such as Egypt, are more vulnerable to network fluctuations. By integrating multidisciplinary perspectives, this study provides a scientific basis for constructing sustainable food trade systems and agricultural resource governance. It offers valuable insights for advancing SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), sustainable land systems, and the optimization of global land governance.