Reliability and Risk Modelling in Occupational Safety and Health in the Context of Climate Change and Sustainability: A Scoping Review

Climate change will pose greater challenges to occupational safety and health, and advanced approaches for risk and reliability modeling that can include sustainability perspectives are needed. This scoping review aims to map and synthesize the current methodologies on modeling OSH risks in the context of climate change and sustainability. We systematically searched the Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, ERIC, and other databases following the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for studies published from 2010 to 2025. Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria and were categorized into four thematic groups: the reliability engineering and probabilistic models, climate-related occupational risk models, hybrid and AI-based models, and the sustainability-oriented reviews. Results The study indicates a methodological shift from deterministic toward probabilistic and systems-based toward data-driven approaches, while heat stress is identified as the key climate-related hazard. Sustainability considerations are increasingly embedded within the risk frameworks, linking safety outcomes with productivity, labor capacity, and resilience. Still, the integration is uneven, and key performance metrics are underreported. The advanced computational methods, such as Bayesian networks and machine learning techniques, along with hybrid models, show promise but need further validation in a wide range of occupational settings. CONCLUSION This review stresses the need for more integrative, transparent, and harmonized modeling practices, providing support to climate-resilient and sustainable OSH management systems.