Exploring the Fire Regime in Gilé National Park, in Zambezia Province, Central Mozambique

Miombo forest in Gilé National Park (PNAG), central Mozambique have significant habitat for endemic biodiversity but face mounting pressure from recurrent fire disturbance. This study assessed fire patterns and mapped fire risk in support of adaptive management in the PNAG. We investigated miombo fire regime over 23 years (2001 to 2023) in terms of return intervals, frequency, temporal distribution, spatial density and intensity, area extent, and severity, by using two MODIS satellite products (MCD14ML active fire; MCD64A1 burned area). Primary risk drivers were established and spatial fire likelihood mapped, using Random forest algorithm. Analysis revealed pronounced late dry-season burning (August-October) affecting approximately 60% of PNAG annually, especially in central-northern and eastern landscapes. Remarkably, 88% of the park maintain 1 to 2 year fire return interval while only 7% maintains return frequencies of 3 to 4 year cycles, important for maintaining Miombo ecosystem functionality. Medium to medium-high fire severity covered 98% of total fire areas. Climate-related drivers and hunting activities were identified as key fire imitators, peaking in central areas in terms of likelihood. Findings demonstrate urgent need for spatially-differentiated fire governance incorporating strategic zoning and prescribed burning to maintain PNAG's ecological resilience and conservation value.