4. Discussion
Model adequacy was assessed using R², AIC, BIC, and the Asymptotic Index (AI). AIC and BIC penalize over-parameterization, helping to avoid choices based solely on R² which can appear high even under unrealistic fits thereby promoting models that balance goodness-of-fit with biological coherence and statistical parsimony [
13,
15]. The information-theoretic framework for AIC and BIC followed [
12]. The AI, originally proposed as a composite criterion for nonlinear regression, has been further validated for animal-science applications through simulation studies [
19,
20]. Under these criteria, the best-supported models in our data were Gompertz for body weight, logistic for protein, and Richards for fat.
The asymptotic index (AI) was used in this study as an integrating metric to simultaneously evaluate different statistical fit criteria such as the asymptotic standard deviation (ASD), the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the residuals, and the coefficient of determination (R²). AI makes it possible to synthesize, into a single value, the global quality of fit, considering not only statistical precision but also the stability of the estimated parameters [
7].
Lower AI values indicate more adequate models, as they reflect greater consistency between the adjusted parameters and the observed data. One of AI’s main differentiators relative to criteria such as AIC and BIC is that it not only penalizes model complexity but also integrates the variability of the estimated parameters, providing a more complete view of fit quality.
In our data, Gompertz showed the lowest AI and the most coherent parameters, aligning with prior reports in quail and broilers. Similar results were reported by [
4], who emphasized AI’s efficiency as a comparative tool in broiler growth curves. Likewise, [
15] observed that AI was decisive in identifying more consistent models in Japanese quail, reinforcing its applicability in avian species. These results confirm the greater robustness of the Gompertz model, which had already been pointed out as the most adequate by [
14] in quail.
Thus, AI complements analyses based on R², AIC, and BIC, reducing the risk of selecting models with high explanatory power but biologically incoherent parameters. Its use is particularly relevant in animal science, where the biological interpretation of parameters (asymptote, growth rate, and inflection point) is just as important as statistical fit quality.
After the statistical analysis of the models, it becomes necessary to evaluate the biology of the estimated parameters, since a statistically well-fitted model does not always correspond to the reality of avian growth. The main parameters of interest are the asymptotic value (a), the growth rate (k), the curve’s inflection point (ti), and, in the case of the Richards model, the additional parameter m, which adjusts the curve’s shape.
Von Bertalanffy presented an asymptote of 193.1 g/quail, slightly above the final body weight expected for Japanese quail (140-160 g/quail). Nevertheless, the inflection point was negative (t = −5.81 days), which makes no biological sense because it suggests that the phase of greatest growth would have occurred even before hatching. This type of distortion has already been reported by [
5,
13], evidencing limitations of the model during early rapid growth.
For the Brody model, the estimated asymptote is completely unrealistic (a = 931.6 g/quail), far above the weight of any quail strain. This compromises its applicability, although it estimated an inflection point close to the start of the experimental period (t
i = 0.60 day). Studies with broilers [
8] and in quail (meat-type) [
16] have also indicated that the Brody model tends to overestimate the asymptotic weight, being inadequate for short-cycle birds.
The Gompertz curve presented biologically consistent parameters, with an asymptote of 169.7 g/quail, within the real range observed for quail, and an inflection point at 15.65 days, a period compatible with the phase of greatest nutrient deposition. The growth rate (k = 0.0778) also remained within the expected range, consistent with other quail studies [
15]. This shows the model’s good ability to describe the biological pattern of growth.
The logistic model produced plausible asymptotes and a symmetric curve, but did not capture the observed asymmetry of growth as well as Gompertz, which indicates a more symmetrical curve. According to [
7], this behaviour is expected in the logistic model but does not always adequately reflect the asymmetry of real avian growth.
By contrast, Richards presented a plausible asymptote (a = 164.6 g/quail) but a negative inflection point (ti = −9.0 days), which compromises its biological interpretation. The additional parameter m could make the curve more flexible and improve the fit, but in this case yielded incoherent behaviour, as also described by [
4] in broilers.
The joint analysis of the statistical and biological parameters shows that, although the von Bertalanffy, logistic, and Richards models presented acceptable fits and Brody was clearly inadequate the Gompertz model best described the body-weight curve of Japanese quail from 1 to 36 days of age. This model not only presented the best statistical indicators (lowest AIC, BIC, and AI, in addition to high R²) but also provided biologically plausible parameters: an asymptote compatible with the expected final weight, a consistent growth rate, and an inflection point at the critical developmental period (15 days of age). These results corroborate previous studies in different avian species, in which Gompertz was identified as the most consistent model to describe growth curves.
Evaluation of the different nonlinear models (
Table 8) applied to growth and nutrient-deposition curves in Japanese quail from 1 to 36 d reveals important differences in both statistical fits and biological plausibility of parameters. It is observed that model choice varied according to the body component evaluated. The curves obtained allow direct relationships between body weight, nutrient deposition, and nutritional management of Japanese quail.
For body weight, the Gompertz model estimated an inflection point at 15.7 days (
Table 8), indicating that the phase of greatest growth rate occurs precisely at the transition between the nutritional periods routinely adopted in practice (1–14 and 15–36 days). This reinforces the importance of nutrient-dense diets in the initial phase, ensuring adequate support for accelerated growth prior to the peak of deposition.
In protein deposition, the logistic model indicated an inflection point at 17.5 days (
Table 8), coinciding with the phase of greatest protein requirement for muscle formation. This demonstrates that protein requirements increase at the start of the second phase (15–36 days). Thus, the curves obtained support adjusting protein and essential amino acid levels at this critical stage. Studies by [
6] in quail had already highlighted the need to align protein-deposition inflection points with diet formulation.
For ash deposition, the Gompertz model estimated an inflection point at 15.1 days (
Table 8), also in the intermediate stage of development. This reinforces the need for adequate supplementation of calcium and available phosphorus right after 14 days, ensuring support for skeletal growth and bone mineralization.
Studies by [
7,
15] confirm that the initial phase is marked by higher bone deposition, but maintaining adequate ash levels to the end of the second phase is essential to prevent structural problems and, for quail entering lay, to promote greater persistence of production, heavier eggs, and a longer peak of lay.
In fat deposition, the Richards model estimated an inflection point at 35.6 d (
Table 8), indicating significant fat accumulation only at the end of the period studied. This pattern confirms that young quail prioritize protein and ash deposition in the first weeks, whereas fat accumulates later. In growers (30–36 days), the observed increase in fat deposition only suggests a higher dietary energy pull; however, energy increases should be limited to avoid unnecessary adiposity. The nutritional emphasis remains on meeting amino acid and mineral requirements while preventing excess energy supply. After the onset of lay, an appropriate energy-to-protein balance contributes to persistence of egg production
The estimated deposition of protein and ash (
Table 9), as well as the ages at which maximum daily gain occurs in quail, fall around 15–18 days. These estimates were derived from the fitted equations in
Table 8, which adequately describe growth and body nutrient deposition. Using mathematical models for this purpose is recommended because they enable the estimation of critical inflection points and maxima in nutrient deposition information essential for designing more efficient nutritional plans.
Several authors have already highlighted the importance of this approach. [
3] emphasize that modelling growth and body composition allows identifying phases of higher protein and energy demand, optimizing diet formulation. The aforementioned studies also showed that nonlinear models (Gompertz, logistic, von Bertalanffy, Richards) are effective tools to predict nutritional requirements and adjust feeding programs according to productive goals (rapid growth, lean meat deposition, or control of excess fat).
Daily protein deposition peaked (1.082 g/day), at 18 days of age (
Figure 1), whereas ash deposition (0.162 g/day) stabilizes a few days earlier, around 15–16 days (within the 15–18 days window). From this period onward, there is a progressive decline in daily protein and ash deposition rates, while fat deposition (1.241 g/day) increases sharply, reaching an asymptote at 35 days (
Figure 1). Similar results were described by [
6].
The inversion of the deposition pattern (
Figure 1), when fat deposition surpasses ash deposition, occurs at about 18.6 days, evidencing the moment when ash demand for ossification has been largely met [
21]. However, the general metabolism of quail starts to prioritize energy storage at about 28.7 days, when protein and fat deposition rates are inverted. This transition, already described in broilers by [
13], coincides with the decline in the efficiency of dietary protein use and the increase in lipogenesis.
Maximum carcass ash deposition occurred at 15 days (
Figure 1), slightly before the protein peak at 18 days, however, these events are closely related. This indicates that during the first weeks of life, the supply of protein and ash (calcium and phosphorus) is critical for the optimal growth of quail. This represents a strategic point to better prepare the quail for ovarian development and to ensure a more persistent and prolonged laying period.
Nutrient deposition data, originally expressed in g, were normalized to a relative scale (0-100%) to enable direct biological comparison among components. This approach allows for the identification of the periods during which protein and fat deposition exert greater influence on overall growth. By standardizing deposition curves, it becomes possible to highlight the temporal relationship between protein accretion and fat deposition (
Figure 2), providing insights into the physiological priorities for growth and body composition development in Japanese quail.
From 24.9 to 29.3 days, the fat deposition curve becomes steeper, with daily fat deposition increasing from 28.36 to 46.98% of the 35-days peak, a 65.66% increase. This pattern indicates a shift in which body-weight gain begins to be supported not only by protein intake but also increasingly by energy intake. During this interval, quail reach 75.66% (104.48 g/quail) to 86.14% (118.95 g/quail) of the 36-day body weight (138.09 g/quail). It is worth noting that, although in decline, protein deposition still sustains body-weight gain during this period; compared with the peak at 18 days, protein deposition has already fallen by 19.61 percentage points at 24.99 days (80.4 vs 100%; 0.870 vs 1.082 g/day).
From 29.3 to 36 days, the fat deposition curve becomes even steeper: daily fat deposition increases from 46.98% (at 29.3 days) to 100% at 35 days, an additional gain of 53.02 percentage points, or a 113% increase. Over the same period, protein deposition decreases from 50.65% (0.548 g/day) to 23.66% (0.256 g/day) relative to the maximum already reached at 18 days of age (100% – 1.082 g/day), a 53% reduction. During this stage, quail increase in body weight from 118.95 to 135.81 g/bird by 35 days.
The intersection point (29.3 days) represents a physiological milestone, at which protein demand declines and energy demand increases. It is important to note that this increase corresponds to only 14.17%. In other words, the growth rate is extremely low, and at this age, most of the energy consumed is used for maintenance rather than for body-weight gain. As a result, the dietary energy-to-protein ratio reaches its maximum during the initial 36 days of life. The diet should ensure at least a minimal weight gain so that the birds can sustain persistence and egg production during the laying phase. After lay begins, maintaining an appropriate energy-to-protein balance supports persistence of egg production [
9].
The joint analysis of the fitted equations (
Table 8) and the estimated values (
Table 9) allow nutritional strategies to be inferred from
Figure 1 and
Figure 2. The results presented here confirm the relevance of modelling growth and deposition curves as a tool for decision-making in quail nutrition. We propose changing the nutritional plan for growing Japanese quail from the current scheme (1–14 and 15–36 days), as recommended by the Brazilian Tables for Poultry and Swine [
2], to 1–18, 19–29, and 30–36 days.