Submitted:
01 October 2025
Posted:
08 October 2025
Read the latest preprint version here
Abstract

Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Methods/Approach
Literature Search
Conceptual Framework Development
- Inflammasome activation (NLRP3, IL-1β, IL-18)
- Disruption of protein prenylation (Ras-related C3 Botulinum Toxin Substrate [Rac1], geranylgeranylation)
- Insulin resistance acting as an inflammation amplifier
- Shifts in thymus-derived lymphocyte (T-cell) balance (T Helper 17 cell subtype [Th17] versus regulatory T-cells [Tregs])
- Immune priming driven by Lp(a) and oxidized phospholipids
3. Mechanistic Framework
Clinical Problem and Paradoxes
The Residual Risk Paradox
- Inflammation drives residual risk (CANTOS, LoDoCo2) [5,6]
- Statins reduce MACE by ~25% per mmol/L [LDL-C] lowering but leave ~75% of events even with [LDL-C] <1.4 mmol/L [3,4] a gap better predicted by Apolipoprotein (Apo)B [22,23]
- Early epidemiological work, in particular the Framingham Study and its stress-defense analyses, established the baseline event rates and risk factors still used to benchmark modern therapies [24]
- A large meta-analysis confirms persistent risk and treatment heterogeneity [3] and statin-treated patients with low [LDL-C] still face higher event rates than untreated peers with similar concentrations [25]
The Statin Pleiotropy Paradox
The Temporal Paradox
The Enhanced Mechanistic Model
Core Framework Statement

Temporal Stratification Model
- Phase 1 (0–6 months): rapid [LDL-C] lowering with predominant anti-inflammatory benefit
- Phase 2 (6–24 months): competing beneficial and detrimental effects as mevalonate pathway disruption accumulates
- Phase 3 (>24 months): a persistent inflammatory floor limits further MACE reduction despite maintained [LDL-C] suppression


Primary Pathway: Dose-Dependent NLRP3 Activation
- NLRP3 inflammasome activation in arterial macrophages arises from convergent lipid-sensing pathways, Rac1 dysregulation, impaired protein prenylation, and oxidized lipids, forming the core of the inflammatory floor effect [49,50]
- Statins inhibit the mevalonate pathway, reducing geranylgeranylation and impairing Rac1 regulation to augment NLRP3 activity 2 [49,50], with mathematical and spectroscopic modeling confirming dose-dependent stress signatures consistent with inflammasome priming [28]. Moreover, statins modestly elevate Lp(a) levels [51], whose oxidized phospholipid cargo directly triggers NLRP3 activation, thereby offering a unified upstream pathway linking NLRP3 activation with insulin resistance and reinforcing the inflammatory floor despite optimal LDL-C levels 3 [45,46].
- Statin-mediated menaquinone-4 (MK-4) depletion may impair inflammasome regulation via reduced SXR activation (vide infra: Section 4 - Therapeutic Potential subsection).
- Macrophages retain IL-1β and IL-18 secretion despite expressing alternatively activated (pro-resolution) macrophage (M2) markers [52,53], driving LDLR-mediated lipid uptake [52], foam cell persistence [50,54] and cytokine-reinforced plaque instability [55]
- Statins also inhibit GTPase prenylation, suppressing Th17 differentiation [56,57] and expanding Tregs [58,59], though these adaptive immune effects vary among individuals [60] and sustain a pro-inflammatory milieu 4. In contrast, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors (FOURIER) and bempedoic acid (CLEAR Outcomes) show continuously diverging event-reduction curves at 2–3 years without the early plateau seen in statin trials [31,61].
Secondary Pathways
- Statin-induced NLRP3 activation → systemic IL-1β elevation
- IL-1β → worsens insulin sensitivity [69]
- Insulin resistance → further chronic inflammation [70]
- 10–15% increased diabetes risk with statin use 5 [27]
- Human and translational studies show statins can aggravate insulin resistance by reducing circulating GLP-1 via a Clostridium–Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)–bile-acid axis; UDCA supplementation restores GLP-1 and improves glycemia [13]
- Red blood cell (RBC)-derived extracellular vesicles in diabetes: Glycated or fragile RBCs release vesicles enriched in arginase-1, which are taken up by endothelial cells to suppress nitric oxide bioavailability and increase reactive oxygen species, driving endothelial dysfunction and inflammation [71]. In the statin context, where diabetes risk is elevated, such RBC-EV–mediated insults may synergize with impaired metabolic resilience to sustain a permissive vascular milieu for lipid retention and inflammasome activation.
- Insulin resistance enhances NLRP3 priming in macrophages 6 [72]
- Metabolic dysfunction amplifies pro-inflammatory cytokine production [73]
- A self-reinforcing cycle maintains the inflammatory floor [73]
Tissue-Specific Context Dependency
- Hepatocytes: Retain beneficial responses and systemic anti-inflammatory effects [72]
- Arterial Macrophages: Susceptible to prenylation disruption, driving persistent inflammasome activation [49]
- Systemic Immune Cells: Mixed responses influenced by genetic predisposition [74]
Parallel Amplification Pathways
Supporting EvidenceMolecular Mechanisms
- Histological mapping of human plaques confirms the persistence of macrophage-driven inflammation in morphologically stable lesions, reinforcing the concept of a durable, non-resolving inflammatory floor even in the absence of systemic flare markers [82].
- Statins increase IL-1β in macrophages in a dose-sensitive, NLRP3-dependent manner [11,27]
- Disruption of Rac1 and protein prenylation alters macrophage phenotype [49]
- M2 macrophages retain pro-inflammatory characteristics under chronic statin exposure [83]
- Foam cells are maintained due to impaired mobility and IL-1β-mediated LDL uptake [54]
- Geranylgeraniol supplementation mitigates statin-induced inflammasome activation [84]
Clinical Correlates
- Dose-dependent diabetes risk with statin therapy; mechanistic human evidence indicates statin-associated GLP-1 reduction contributes to this phenotype [13]
- Residual risk concentrated in secondary prevention populations [24,85]
- Colchicine reduces CV events by ~34% in statin-treated patients [6]
- Early vs late statin initiation shows different inflammatory profiles [32]
- Although statin therapy often reduces [CRP] to within the clinically acceptable range as measured by hs-CRP assays [86], concentrations may still exceed thresholds associated with arterial inflammation and cardiovascular risk. In other words, [CRP] falls, but not necessarily far enough to extinguish the inflammatory floor that sustains residual events. Meta-analytic evidence confirms that, even with optimal [LDL-C] reduction, many patients continue to experience cardiovascular events, often in association with persistent, albeit subclinical, elevations in inflammatory markers [23,32].
- Arterial vs Systemic Inflammation Decoupling: reflects systemic IL-6 levels, while NLRP3 activation is local and may be insulin resistance-amplified [26]. Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging shows arterial vs systemic dissociation [86].
- PCSK9 inhibitors show diminishing returns in heavily statin-treated populations [87]
Biomarker Evolution Patterns
- Initial [CRP] reduction followed by plateau or slight increase, while IL-18 levels remain elevated and predictive of cardiovascular death in both stable and unstable angina [33]
- Persistent elevation of IL-18 in high-dose statin users [88]
- Divergence between systemic and arterial inflammatory markers [86]
- Elevated IL-1β and IL-18 remain predictive of adverse cardiovascular outcomes despite LDL-C lowering, consistent with persistent inflammasome activity [63]
4. Therapeutic Implications
Refined Biomarker Strategy and Monitoring
Dynamic Biomarker Panel
Functional Assays
- Ex vivo macrophage polarisation capacity
- LDL uptake studies
- Inflammasome activation assays
Precision Monitoring Strategy
- Genetic screening: 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR), NLRP3, IL-1β, Rac1 variants
- Baseline phenotyping: Metabolic and inflammatory profile assessment
- Longitudinal tracking: Biomarker evolution over therapy duration
- Imaging correlation: Arterial inflammation persists despite systemic reduction 7 [90]; advanced PET tracers such as ¹⁸F-NaF (detecting microcalcification) and ⁶⁸Ga-DOTATATE or ⁶⁸Ga-PentixaFor (targeting activated macrophages or C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) expression) provide tissue-specific insight into persistent plaque activity, helping distinguish inflammatory floor regions from systemic responses [86,91]
Testable Predictions
Clinical Predictions
- On maximal-dose statin therapy, IL-1β/IL-18 will fall initially in step with [LDL-C], but after 12–24 months will plateau or rebound, so that at long-term steady-state (≥2 years) patients have higher IL-1β/IL-18 despite [LDL-C] remaining low
- Carriers of HMGCR or NLRP3 variants show greater susceptibility to the inflammatory floor effect
- Arterial inflammation persists on PET imaging despite systemic normalization
- Statin-induced diabetics show higher arterial inflammatory markers independent of glycemic control
Mechanistic Predictions
- Statin-treated macrophages express M2 markers but retain IL-1β secretion 8
- Geranylgeraniol supplementation suppresses IL-1β without altering [LDL-C]
- Early vs late statin exposure yields distinct epigenetic and inflammatory profiles
- Anti-inflammatory agents benefit genetically susceptible patients more than average
Intervention Predictions
- Early combination therapy prevents inflammatory floor effect establishment
- Metformin co-therapy lowers localized IL-1β levels and diabetes risk
- Biomarker-guided statin dosing improves risk/benefit balance
- Genetic profiling enables earlier combination treatment
- Adjunct UDCA will restore GLP-1 and attenuate elevated blood glucose and insulin-resistance amplification in patients on high-intensity statins [13]
Clinical Implementation Strategy
Risk Stratification Approach
- Aggressive systolic blood pressure control: (120-90 mmHg) and polyphenol-rich diets may blunt mechanical and immunometabolic triggers, reducing NLRP3 activation, improving insulin sensitivity, and lowering endothelial shear stress, to support plaque resolution [92–94]
- Low Risk: Statin monotherapy, routine monitoring
- Moderate Risk: Enhanced biomarker tracking, conditional combination therapy
- High Risk: Immediate combination therapy and intensive monitoring
Precision Medicine Integration
- One off determination of [LP(a)]
- Genetic testing to identify susceptible variants
- Metabolic and inflammatory baseline profiling
- Individualized ApoB, LDL-C, and inflammatory targets
- Dynamic treatment adjustments
- Therapeutic approaches that enhance Treg function or suppress Th17 responses could be beneficial, as suggested by recent insights into T-cell roles in atherosclerosis [95,96]
Therapeutic Sequencing
- Pre-Phase (Structural Priming and Vascular Neogenesis)In the SFE framework, adventitial vasa vasorum hyperplasia and diffuse intimal hyperplasia prime arteries for lipid retention and inflammation, Yang et al. showed in rabbits that adventitial vasa vasorum proliferation precedes intima–media thickening and predicts plaque development [97]. Following this, diffuse intimal hyperplasia (DIH), as described by Subbotin, may further predispose to lipid retention by increasing oxygen diffusion distance and creating localized hypoxia. This facilitates smooth muscle cell phenotypic modulation and extracellular matrix accumulation [98]. Together, adventitial vasa vasorum and DIH can create a permissive terrain upon which lipids accumulate and immune processes initiate. Identifying and interrupting these early, pre-lipid stages may offer an opportunity for pre-emptive vascular therapy in at-risk individuals.
- Phase 1 (0–6 months): Statin therapy initiation
- Phase 2 (6–24 months): Monitor for inflammatory floor effect
- Phase 3 (>2 years): Maintain combination therapy for at-risk individuals
Research Priorities and Study Design
Longitudinal Mechanistic Studies
- 5-year biomarker tracking studies
- Stratified cohorts by genetic risk
- Human arterial tissue sampling
- PET imaging to correlate markers with inflammation
Intervention Trials
- Early statin + anti-inflammatory randomized controlled trials
- Biomarker-guided versus standard care dosing
- Metformin combination trials
- Personalized therapy based on genomic risk
Mechanistic Validation
- Murine models to examine NLRP3–foam cell trajectory
- Ex vivo validation of macrophage phenotypes
- Prospective validation of biomarker panels
Modeling Research
Clinical Implications and Future Directions
Immediate Clinical Applications
- Biomarker screening for residual inflammatory risk
- Early combination therapy consideration
- Avoid unnecessary statin up-titration in the inflammatory floor effect phenotype
- Better risk communication strategies
Long-Term Paradigm Shifts
- Broaden to immunometabolic cardiology
- Genetically informed prevention models
- Simultaneous targeting of lipid, metabolic, and immune pathways
- Integrated biomarker and imaging-based care models
- While NLRP3 remains the most extensively characterized inflammasome in atherosclerosis, other complexes such as absent in melanoma 2 and NOD-like receptor family CARD domain containing 4 may also contribute to vascular inflammation [53]. Recognizing the pivotal role of adaptive immunity in atherosclerosis, future paradigms may shift towards immunomodulatory therapies [50,101]. Their integration into the SFE framework awaits further mechanistic clarity.
Therapeutic Innovation Opportunities
- NLRP3-specific anti-inflammatory therapies
- Fixed-dose statin + anti-inflammatory combinations
- Genetic testing panels for cardiovascular risk
- Point-of-care inflammatory biomarker devices
- Adventitial vasa vasorum modulation: Early detection and targeting of proliferation, via ultrasound or contrast-enhanced imaging, may offer a window to prevent downstream plaque formation before intimal thickening or immune infiltration
- Structural-stage targeting: Therapeutic modulation of DIH and matrix remodeling, especially in metabolically susceptible individuals, may delay or prevent the creation of lipid-retentive terrain. This approach expands risk-reduction efforts upstream of lipid-lowering or anti-inflammatory therapies.
- Targeted modulation of Lp(a)-associated risk - is now achievable through gene-silencing therapies such as pelacarsen (antisense oligonucleotide), olpasiran and zerlasiran (small interfering RNAs, siRNAs), which have been shown to reduce [Lp(a)] by up to 90% in clinical trials. These agents provide precision strategies for genetically mediated [Lp(a)] elevation.
- Statins can variably raise [Lp(a)] in some individuals, though this effect is not universal and may not always be clinically significant
- Novel agents like muvalaplin (an oral inhibitor of Apo(a)-ApoB binding) offer non-injectable alternatives
- While colchicine does not reduce [Lp(a)], it may blunt downstream inflammation triggered by Lp(a)-bound OxPLs, offering potential therapeutic synergy in high-risk inflammatory phenotypes
Why This Framework Matters
Clinical Relevance
- Explains paradoxes in residual cardiovascular risk
- Enables identification of patients needing intensified therapy
- Enhances clinical efficiency via better risk stratification
- Supports enhanced cardiovascular disease risk reduction
Scientific Impact
- Postulates a unifying mechanistic model
- Encourages precision research designs
- Enhances biomarker development
- Sets the stage for future immunometabolic therapies
Therapeutic Potential
- RNA-silencing approaches: Recent preclinical studies demonstrate that hepatocyte-targeted siRNA and GalNAc-conjugated oligonucleotides against Farnesyl-diphosphate Farnesyltransferase 1 (FDFT1) achieve >70% knockdown of squalene synthase mRNA, reduce plasma [LDL-C] by 30–40%, and attenuate atherosclerotic lesion development in animal models. Early human Phase I data with GalNAc–FDFT1 siRNA suggest durable [LDL-C] lowering with quarterly subcutaneous dosing and a favorable safety profile [102,103].
- Combination with Statins: Preclinical co-administration of low-dose statin plus FDFT1 siRNA yielded additive [LDL-C] lowering (~60-70% total) and greater atherosclerotic plaque regression than either alone, supporting a dual-mechanism strategy to overcome the inflammation floor of statin monotherapy
- Targeting the rescue of the impaired synthesis of MK-4: a form of vitamin K₂ that modulates inflammatory resolution and mitochondrial homeostasis - although direct clinical evidence is lacking, murine studies show that statins can suppress MK-4 formation in extrahepatic tissues. MK-4 deficiency impairs activation of matrix Gla protein (MGP), promoting microcalcification, and may enhance NLRP3 inflammasome activity by removing antioxidant and anti-NF-κB restraints [104]. Observational human data further link low circulating [MK-4] with greater coronary calcification, suggesting a plausible translational mechanism [105]. Thus, MK-4 depletion may represent a second direct molecular axis, alongside geranylgeranyl gyrophosphate / Rac1 disruption, through which statins promote a persistent inflammatory floor within atherosclerotic lesions. This again illustrates the paradoxical effect of statins in that they also enhance plaque stabilization through calcification.
- FDFT1 silencing: limits squalene-derived isoprenoids, reducing macrophage endoplasmic reticulum stress and NLRP3 activation, offering a novel strategy to target the inflammatory floor
- IL-10: may drive post-MI plaque regression and myocardial remodeling by enhancing M2 polarization, suppressing MMP-9, and boosting mitochondrial function, but its efficacy falls off above ~1 µg/mL, highlighting the need for controlled delivery [106]
- Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)-driven plaque reduction: a meta-analysis of 23 intravascular ultrasound trials showed each 1% decrease in percent atheroma volume was linked to a 19% lowering of MACE [107], and in statin-treated coronary artery disease patients, a higher ratio of EPA-derived mediators (18-hydroxyeicosapentaenoic acid + resolvin E1) to leukotriene B₄ strongly predicted actual plaque regression [108]
- New gene-editing approaches: such as VERVE-102, which offers durable, possibly lifelong PCSK9 silencing in humans, may further decouple [LDL-C] lowering from the immunometabolic disruptions observed with statins and thus represent an ideal platform for combination therapy targeting inflammatory floor mechanisms [109]
- Unique protein dysregulations: opportunities lie in their discovery by the application of proteomics mass spectrometry, paving the way to new therapies and mechanistic insights. Early spatially resolved proteomic studies of human plaques [110] (preprint) suggest that arterial PCSK9 secretion, ECM remodeling, and region-specific inflammatory pathways may be particularly tractable targets, underscoring the value of local proteomic mapping for future therapy development.
5. Conclusions
Declaration of Generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process
Author Contributions
Acknowledgements
Conflict of Interest
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| Therapy Class | Trial(s) | Time for Initial Risk Reduction | Temporal Pattern | Plateau Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statins (moderate–high dose) | CTT meta-analysis [2,3,26] | Within 3–6 months | Rapid early ↓, then plateau | Yes | Clear early benefit, but ~75% of events still occur despite [LDL-C] <1.4 mmol/L |
| PCSK9 inhibitors | FOURIER, ODYSSEY OUTCOMES [31,64] | 12–24 months | Progressive over time | No | In FOURIER and ODDYSEY, event curves continue diverging through their 2-3 year follow-up, but longer-term trajectories remain to be determined |
| Ezetimibe | IMPROVE-IT [65] | ~24 months | Delayed, modest effect | Mild | Additive to statins; risk reduction ~6% over 6 years |
| Bempedoic acid | CLEAR Outcomes [61] | ≥24 months | Linear, steady | No | Benefit emerges gradually, consistent with an early plateau in statin curves, and raises the question of a statin-linked inflammatory floor |
| Lifestyle interventions | PREDIMED, PURE, observational cohorts [66,67,68] | 2–5 years | Slow, cumulative | Not applicable | Heterogeneous effects: within 2–5 year studies, no clear plateau is observed, but longer-term data are limited |
| Biomarker | Mechanistic Role | Interpretive Value | Preferred Monitoring |
|---|---|---|---|
| ApoB | Structural protein for all atherogenic lipoproteins | Direct measure of total atherogenic particle burden | Immunoassay; preferable to LDL-C in residual risk evaluation |
| IL-1β | Primary NLRP3 inflammasome effector cytokine | Direct marker of inflammasome activation and macrophage priming | Plasma assay (ELISA or multiplex) |
| IL-18 | Co-product of NLRP3 activation | Correlation with plaque activity; elevated in persistent risk | Plasma assay; potential for plaque-specific imaging correlation |
| IL-18/IL-10 Ratio | Balance between inflammation and resolution | Indicator of inflammatory floor and impaired resolution capacity | Calculated from serum cytokine panel |
| TNF-α | Promotes foam cell persistence, metabolic dysfunction | Marker of chronic plaque inflammation and macrophage dysfunction | Serum or plasma; longitudinal tracking preferred |
| CRP | Downstream IL-6–driven acute-phase reactant | Systemic surrogate for residual inflammatory risk | Standard clinical immunoassay |
| Adiponectin | Anti-inflammatory adipokine is suppressed in insulin resistance | Negative correlation of NLRP3 activation | ELISA or multiplex adipokine panel |
| HOMA-IR | Composite index of insulin resistance | Proxy for systemic metabolic reinforcement of NLRP3 | Derived from fasting insulin and glucose |
| GLP-1 | Incretin reduced by statins via microbiota–bile acid axis | Lower levels flag insulin-resistance amplification under statins; candidate for UDCA rescue | Fasting plasma GLP-1 (stabilized tubes); paired with HOMA-IR |
| 1 | Square-bracket notation (e.g., [LDL-C]) denotes molar concentration throughout. |
| 2 | This mechanism is supported by murine and cell culture studies, full validated in human arterial macrophages is yet to occur. |
| 3 | In vitro models support OxPL–NLRP3 activation, the in vivo contribution of Lp(a) to this pathway is yet to be quantified. |
| 4 | The role of adaptive immune–macrophage crosstalk in this context has not yet been fully mapped, however, emerging data suggest that insulin resistance may modulate T-cell polarization and indirectly reinforce pro-inflammatory macrophage phenotypes. |
| 5 | Meta-analytic evidence links statin therapy to new-onset diabetes, with heightened risk in patients with pre-existing metabolic dysfunction—supporting a systemic feedback loop. |
| 6 | While IL-1β–induced insulin resistance is supported by human and animal data, the bidirectional loop involving macrophages remains under active investigation. |
| 7 | [CRP] reflects measured concentrations via hs-CRP assay, and there is a distinction between clinical targets and immunologic sufficiency. |
| 8 | Bentzon et al. have extensively characterized macrophage dynamics in plaque progression and regression models, forming a foundational framework for interpreting phenotypic transitions in atherosclerosis. |
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