Submitted:
21 July 2025
Posted:
22 July 2025
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Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Overview of the Electricity Sector
2.2. IPAT Equation
2.2.1. Population (P)
2.2.2. Affluence (A)
2.2.3. Technology (T)
- a)
-
The emission factors for each type of technology are based on average values for the EU-27 + United Kingdom, as is provided by the United Nations Economic Commission for the Europe (UNECE) Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options [34]:
- o
- Hydroelectric power plants up to 360 MW;
- o
- Photovoltaic panels with polysilicon solar cells;
- o
- Nuclear power plants with PWR-type reactors with a capacity of 1000 MW;
- o
- Onshore wind power plants.
- b)
- Gross electricity production until 2050 is estimated based on forecasts from the Electricity System Operator of Bulgaria until 2031 [24]. Prediction modeling for the remaining period of 2032-2050 is performed by linear regression using the Forecast Function in Excel.
- c)
- Final electricity consumption in the country is projected based on the data until 2030 in the Integrated Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria [25].
- d)
- The initial parameters of the first scenario reflect the actual distribution of electricity generation capacities in the mix for the period 2010–2022 (with the average value between the minimum and maximum shares of production), while each subsequent scenario assesses the impact of increasing the share of nuclear energy on the grid emission factor. The last two scenarios evaluate the potential impact of accelerated penetration of renewables in the mix, and the final scenario illustrates electricity generation entirely from renewable energy sources.
- The construction of hydrogroups with a higher installed capacity may lead to significantly elevated emission factors (up to 150 gCO₂/kWh), primarily due to equipment manufacturing and long-distance transportation impacts.
- Silicon solar panels are currently the most common on the market.
- Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) are the most commonly deployed nuclear reactor type globally. This technology is also used in Bulgaria’s existing nuclear units and planned future projects.
- For renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants, the potential environmental impact is assessed over their entire life cycle, as the aim is to evaluate the impact and relevance of these alternative low-emission technologies in their future construction and replacement of fossil fuel-fired power plants. For this reason, only the emission factor for direct emissions from electricity production was used for fossil fuel-fired power plants [26].
- Biomass included in the energy mix is treated as carbon-neutral and is therefore excluded from total emission calculations. Biomass is considered a carbon-neutral fuel and its emission factor is assumed to be zero when participating in the electricity generation, but this does not mean that no CO2 emissions are released during its combustion. Although CO₂ is emitted during combustion, the assumption of neutrality is based on the premise that the plants used for biomass absorb an equivalent amount of CO₂ through photosynthesis during their life cycle. Due to the lack of available data on the life-cycle emissions of biomass combustion installations, their emissions are not included in this analysis.
- According to the modeled scenario of the Electricity System Operator, an upward trend in gross electricity production in Bulgaria is observed, which can be explained by the electrification of a number of sectors in the country as a tool in the fight against climate change. This trend highlights the increasing importance of clean energy production in addressing the energy trilemma.
3. Results
4. Discussion
- a)
- Renewable energy sources have variable and intermittent generation profiles, and weather conditions cannot be reliably predicted over the long term. This may result in situations where electricity demand is high, but the lack of wind or sunlight results in an inability to meet the demand.
- b)
- Nuclear power plants are much more efficient, as they are characterized by a much larger installed capacity on a significantly smaller occupied area.
- c)
- If a scenario with a substantial share of renewables in the electricity mix is chosen, ensuring reliable grid operation would require the use of energy storage technologies to store the surplus energy generated during peak renewable production hours.
- d)
- Currently, the most widely used method for energy storage is by pumping water into a reservoir, after which this water is released to produce electricity when needed. For this reason, pumped-storage hydropower plants (PSHPPs) are often used as balancing facilities to meet peak loads. PSHPPs have significant potential in terms of environmental impact and efficiency, but their development is constrained by the geographical availability of water resources.
- e)
- A critical aspect of renewable energy sources is their dependence of geographical location. Some countries produce all or nearly all of their electricity from low-carbon sources. For instance, Paraguay, Iceland, Sweden, and Uruguay generate more than 95% of their electricity from such sources, while France exceeds 90%. [27] Iceland generates its electricity entirely from alternatives to fossil fuels, producing approximately 80% from hydropower and 20% from geothermal energy. However, this electricity mix is a result of the country’s favorable geographical location and is not universally applicable. In contrast, nuclear power plants—especially the small modular reactors—can be deployed almost anywhere.
- f)
- As previously mentioned, the environmental impact of low-emission technologies is mainly associated with the construction phase and the extraction of materials, as well as the management of waste at the end of the facility’s life cycle. Solar panels have an average lifespan of 25–30 years, whereas wind turbines typically last 20–25 years. In contrast, a nuclear power facility could be operated for up to 60 years, which is twice as long.
- If the current electricity mix remains unchanged, greenhouse gas emissions will increase significantly by 2050 due to the rising demand for electricity and production, consequently. Emissions from the production of consumed electricity in the country are expected to grow from around 17.6 million tons in 2010 to nearly 26 million tons by 2050.
- Increasing the share of nuclear energy in the electricity mix reduces the grid’s emission factor and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
- Producing 100% of the electricity with nuclear power plants would naturally have the least impact on the environment. However, this is not an optimal solution in terms of power system reliability, as a diversified mix of installed capacities provides greater flexibility in responding to potential problems. Bulgaria is expected to operate until 2050 its two 1000 MWe nuclear units that lack sufficient maneuverability to meet changes in the grid load. For this reason, a scenario with electricity production entirely from nuclear power plants was not considered.
- Nevertheless, nuclear energy ensures the stability of the energy supply, as it is a baseload power, which can be determined from its capacity factor of 94%. The only downtime is during the scheduled annual maintenance period.
- The scenario in which electricity is generated entirely from renewable energy sources, although highly hypothetical is possible with the current energy storage technologies. Anyway, shows a higher grid emission factor compared to scenarios that include nuclear power plants in the mix (but exclude fossil fuel plants). This result once again confirms the importance of nuclear power plants for the energy transition and their relevance for the production of “clean” and “green” energy.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| EU | European Union |
| FHPP | Factory Heat Power Plants |
| GDP | Gross Domestic Product |
| GHG | Greenhouse Gas |
| HPSPP | Heat Production and Supply Power Plant |
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| IPPU | Industrial Processes and Product Use |
| LULUCF | Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry |
| NPP | Nuclear Power Plant |
| PSHPP | Pumped-Storage Hydropower Plant |
| PWR | Pressurized Water Reactor |
| RES | Renewable Energy Sources |
| TPP | Thermal Power Plant |
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| Emission factor in gCO2/kWh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPP | HPSPP | FHPP | NPP | PV | Wind | Hydro |
| 1283 | 531 | 721 | 5 | 37 | 12 | 11 |
| Year | Final electricity consumption, TWh | Population (P) | Electricity consumption per capita (A), MWh/person | Technology (T), tCO2-eq/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 28.30 | 7,396,000 | 3.83 | The grid emission factor of the considered scenarios |
| 2015 | 29.60 | 7,178,000 | 4.12 | |
| 2020 | 30.00 | 6,943,999 | 4.32 | |
| 2025 | 33.67 | 6,742,721 | 4.99 | |
| 2030 | 35.36 | 6,541,233 | 5.41 | |
| 2035 | 37.13 | 6,346,422 | 5.85 | |
| 2040 | 38.77 | 6,163,898 | 6.29 | |
| 2045 | 40.28 | 5,993,914 | 6.72 | |
| 2050 | 41.73 | 5,831,730 | 7.16 |
| Type of power plant |
Share of national electricity production, % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S 1 | S 2 | S 3 | S 4 | S 5 | S 6 | S 7 | |
| TPP | 44 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HPSPP | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FHPP | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NPP | 36 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 70 | 45 | 0 |
| PV | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 14.8 | 34.8 | 59.1 |
| Wind | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 26.5 |
| Hydro | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 8.4 |
| Biomass | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Grid EF, tCO2/MWh | 0.6223 | 0.4439 | 0.3164 | 0.1889 | 0.0108 | 0.0175 | 0.0260 |
| Year | Impact of tCO2-eq | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S 1 | S 2 | S 3 | S 4 | S 5 | S 6 | S 7 | |
| 2025 | 20,952,287 | 14,943,199 | 10,650,993 | 6,358,787 | 363,469 | 589,880 | 874,366 |
| 2030 | 22,004,662 | 15,693,754 | 11,185,963 | 6,678,172 | 381,725 | 619,508 | 918,283 |
| 2035 | 23,110,294 | 16,482,292 | 11,748,005 | 7,013,718 | 400,905 | 650,635 | 964,422 |
| 2040 | 24,125,023 | 17,205,999 | 12,263,838 | 7,321,678 | 418,508 | 679,203 | 1,006,768 |
| 2045 | 25,070,038 | 17,879,984 | 12,744,232 | 7,608,479 | 434,901 | 705,808 | 1,046,205 |
| 2050 | 25,971,690 | 18,523,044 | 13,202,582 | 7,882,121 | 450,543 | 731,193 | 1,083,832 |
| Capacity factor in % | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPP | HPSPP | FHPP | NPP | PV | Wind | Hydro | Biomass |
| 48.6 | 46.7 | 34.8 | 94.1 | 14.4 | 23.2 | 18.2 | 44.1 |
| TPP | Gross electricity production, MWh |
GHG emissions, tCO2/year |
|---|---|---|
| TPP Maritsa East 2 | 9,665,636 | 10,198,045 |
| TPP ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 | 6,400,018 | 6,752,548 |
| TPP AES-3C Maritsa East 1 | 4,131,370 | 4,358,937 |
| Total | 20,197,024 | 21,309,530 |
| GHG emissions, tCO2-eq/year | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Including LULUCF | 54,656,000 | 53,495,000 | 53,117,000 | 47,553,000 |
| LULUCF | -8,489,000 | -8,641,000 | -8,594,000 | -8,593,000 |
| Excluding LULUCF | 63,145,000 | 62,136,000 | 61,711,000 | 56,146,000 |
| Total emissions from energy sector | 44,574,000 | 44,014,000 | 42,707,000 | 36,500,000 |
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