After homogenisation and cloud-screening of both data sets, these got combined into a single one. This one is used in the following analysis. The AOD measurements are only available during clear-sky time. Hence, there is a clear-sky bias in the data. High aerosol events, which arrived during cloudy/rainy conditions can therefore not be captured by photometer data. If not stated otherwise, the AOD is always referred to nm. Daily medians are only computed, if at least 60 min of data is available for this day. A monthly median is calculated out of at least five daily medians.
5.2. Monthly Changes of AOD
Figure 5 gives an overview of monthly median AOD observations over the entire measurement period 2004 – 2023. The time of the Arctic Haze in early spring (March and April) is by about
higher than during the summer months (June to September). While these months are comparable homogeneously, April and May show a broader diversity, indicating less stable atmospheric conditions and an influence of different aerosol events arriving in Ny-Ålesund.
The winter months, October to March appear with very heterogeneous monthly median AOD observations. The year-to-year variability is high, but also the difference in the median AOD between summer and winter exceeds 0.1 and is on average three times higher than in summer.
Figure 5 emphasises clearly the enhancement of AOD during winter compared to summer months. As it can be seen the winter months, especially January, are very diverse with a generally high AOD. The Arctic Haze season in April and May can still be found, but also years with low monthly median AOD have been found. The difference between two adjacent years is relatively small for summer, whereas it becomes large for winter. With generally many storms in autumn the cloud cover is high and the data coverage of the star photometer quite sparse in October and November with a cloud cover up to 80% [
19].
In winter (October to March) the year-to-year variability as well as the changes between consecutive months is larger than during summer months (May to September). The pronounced increase of winter AOD increases in the last decade even further, with a simultaneous decrease of spring AOD. From an aerosol point of view the clearest time of the year is June and July. In mid of July to beginning of August 2019 extraordinary high AOD due to wildfires and long-ranged transported aerosol was observed in the Arctic and is further discussed by Xian et al. [
36]. Due to maintenance work on the photometer this event is not covered in July, but only in August and therefore shows an exceptional high AOD.
Figure 6 shows the distribution of AOD measurements for the years 2004 to 2023 per month in great detail. The months from March to September are characterised by generally a small variability between the years and a low AOD with small variability within this month. Some months and years with exceptional high AOD can still be found, but they indicate a clear and individual event, rather than a general trend. The exceptional high AOD in August 2019, which is already in much detail described by Xian et al. [
36] is not shown in this figure.
From November to February only star photometer observations are available. September, October and March are covered by both instruments.
During night time the data availability decreases on one hand (see
Figure 3), but on the other hand the measurements become more divers with a higher mean AOD, which was already shown in
Figure 5. In the recent years a significant increase of AOD was found from October to February, indicating that a change of aerosol load and/or properties has happened. This increased AOD is not found during polar day. Therefore by combining sun and star photometer in a homogenised data set, a comprehensive overview of aerosol properties can be made, especially in the Arctic, where polar day and Night occurs. The variability of AOD within a month is much larger than in summer months, easily visible by larger boxes in
Figure 6 and agrees with
Figure 4. The variability can partially be explained by having generally a sparser data availability (see
Figure 3). Other influences are further discussed in
Section 5.3 and
Section 5.7.
All in all it can be concluded, that winter is a very interesting and surprisingly highly polluted time of the year in the pristine environment of the Arctic. The importance of the Arctic Haze is clearly being reduced and winter becomes the most polluted season, while simultaneously the amplitude between minimum and maximum of the median becomes larger and larger over time. Several different reasons for this change will be discussed in
Section 5.8.
5.3. Trend Analysis for AOD
As already shown in
Figure 6 the AOD varies between years and months significantly. In the following the trend of the Arctic AOD is analysed.
For a more substantial analysis of changes in AOD a trend analysis is performed, first for the entire period of 2004 – 2023, afterwards for every decade separately. Results of the deseasonalized trend and their standard deviation are presented in
Table 3.
Over the entire observation time (2004 – 2023) the months April to June and especially May became clearer with a reduction of up to
within 20 years while in October and November the AOD increases with up to
. In agreement with
Figure 5 the standard deviation is larger for winter and smaller for summer with values around 0.01 (June), indicating that summer months are generally more homogeneously than winter months (0.09 in February).
We also tried to investigate the trend over one decade each (2004 – 2013 and 2014 – 2023, respectively) but the large variability between two adjacent years does not allow a trend analysis. Hence, we stick to a twenty year long trend analysis.
As it can be seen in
Figure 7 and
Table 3 the variability between each year is very large. By just using data sets with a length of a decade a possible trend might be hidden within its variability. Therefore long data sets of at least 20 years are necessary for a proper trend analysis.
5.4. Ångström Exponent
The Ångström Exponent is a very important parameter to determine the effective size of aerosols. The sign convention is according to Equation (
13) with
being Rayleigh scattering. It was only calculated for the aerosol optical depth, after the cloud-screening algorithm.
Similar to
Figure 4,
Figure 8 shows the daily median Ångström Exponent for both instruments from 2004 – 2023. As it can be seen, most of the
values concentrate within the range of
. Some exceptions are recorded for values
.
Figure 9 gives a relative overview about the density of AOD versus AE, where yellow indicates a high density of combination and blue colors a low one [a.u.] for the two photometer data sets separately.
For the sun photometer data the probability accumulates on a very small range of AOD- and AE-values with
and corresponding
. A band of small aerosols and low AOD is found (
). The AOD in this regime is very low, which results in a large uncertainty. This error propagates through the calculation of the Ångström Exponent and hence, these values can not fully be trusted. Individual events with high AOD and comparably large
are also found. Since no averaging was applied to the data displayed in
Figure 9, much more points are visible compared to
Figure 8.
The situation is different for the star photometer. As already seen in for example
Figure 5, the AOD is much larger than during solar measurements. This result can be also found here in this Figure, but with corresponding high
. Typical combinations for the star photometer are
and
.
Generally aerosols in the atmosphere above Ny-Ålesund are larger in winter times with a corresponding higher AOD than in summer times. The same result was also found by Gogoi et al. [
37].
An overview of monthly median AE values is given in
Figure 10 for the entire measurement period in grey. In orange over all these 20 years the median is plotted.
For the entire measurement period it can be said, that summers are usually more homogeneously than winters, which are also very diverse from year to year. A generally increased
in April and May compared to other months of the same year can not clearly be seen in the data, which would be expected for a clear Arctic Haze season. The exceptionally low value, and therefore large particles, in August correspond to the year 2019. As Xian et al. [
36] has observed, these aerosols can be traced back to wildfires.
The winter (October to February) is characterised by large particles with
, while the particle size decreases, characterised by the Ångström Exponent towards July, where it reaches its minimum (
). Winter is very diverse in respect of the monthly median Ångström Exponent. In November median values are possible between 0.5 and 3.5, while the monthly median in July has values typically between 1.2 and 1.7. A more detailed distribution of the Ångström Exponent is presented in
Figure 11.
From March to August the year-to-year variability is relatively small as well as the monthly variation. Generally, the values of the Ångström Exponent decrease from one month to the next one. The monthly variability reaches its minimum in July with low values, which indicate small particles on average. A small year-to-year variability evolves from June onwards with increasing tendency towards autumn and winter. This homogeneity is also found in the AOD of
Figure 6 with a low, but nearly constant and homogeneously distributed AOD.
After the polar day is over a clear change in Ångström Exponent can be observed. The variability within a month becomes significantly larger as well as the year-to-year variability. For the months November to January an decreasing tendency from values around 3 from 2019 to 2023 was observed. Within the months of these four years particles became significantly larger with a simultaneously decreasing variability. We conclude, aerosols, which arrive in the Arctic in winter, become more homogeneously. This pattern is also clearly visible in the AOD (see Figure ). In the same period the AOD rises and mean AOD values to around 0.3 are observed.
In the years 2004 – 2013 the variability within a month and from year to year is very large, but from 2014 onwards a clearer pattern can be seen: Aerosols were very large (mean ). Then the effective size decreased until 2021 to . Afterwards the observations indicate larger particles again and became smaller the next year. This observation is also found in the AOD. When the mean AOD is high () and reduced with smaller . This indicates, that large particles are transported into the Arctic.
5.5. Trend Analysis for Ångström Exponent
To investigate the changes in Ångström Exponent over the years since 2004 the deviation from the monthly mean
is shown in
Figure 12. As already presented in
Figure 3 the distribution of measurement time is highly variable between years and months. This table as well as
Figure 11 can be used as a indication about the data coverage for the individual months and years.
For months with
, the observed aerosols had above-average effective sizes, for cases with
vice-versa. While the variability were largest in the beginning of the observation time, they decreased in all months. The trend of the monthly mean
as well as its standard deviation is shown in
Table 4.
With a positive trend indicated in
Table 4 the effective aerosol size becomes smaller over time, while a negative trend indicates arriving particles over Ny-Ålesund are becoming larger. In winter (November to February) aerosol tend to become smaller, while a slight increase of aerosol size is observed over the two decades in June to August. Additionally, the standard deviation is also largest during winter and smallest during summer. As already concluded in
Section 5.2 the particles are more heterogeneous in winter, which can be supported by the analysis of the Ångström Exponent as well. The increase of AOD in autumn and early winter is caused by particles, which become smaller over time. Since the effective particle size decreases also in Throughout the winter as well as in March and April, we conclude, the time of the Arctic Haze is not shifted to earlier times, but we rather observe a general trend throughout the entire winter.
5.6. Case Study: Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) can occur in the Arctic lower stratosphere, when the temperature drops below 195 K. PSCs provide the surface, on which chemical reaction can take place forming free chlorine radicals, which directly destroy ozone molecules. Due to the required low temperatures of the atmosphere, they are typically observed in Ny-Ålesund between December and February [
38]. Since these stratospheric clouds occur above Ny-Ålesund only during winter, when in parallel the AOD is significantly higher than during summer times, we estimate the possible impact of a PSC to star photometer observations. To get a high-dependent information about the PSC, we use additional Raman Lidar data.
Lidar observations have the big advantage compared to photometers by having a height resolution. By measuring the back-scattering of aerosol and cloud layers distinct and different layers can be identified. The here presented ground-based observations (
Figure 13) by the Raman Lidar KARL (Koldewey Aerosol Raman Lidar), which is operated manually from Ny-Ålesund, show one exemplary day with a PSC in February 2020. The temporal resolution is 10 min with a spatial resolution of 60 m. More information about the Raman Lidar KARL can be found at Hoffmann [
39].
A rough estimation of the AOD can be obtained from the extinction coefficient measured by a Raman Lidar. The integrated extinction profile of the Lidar signal is the AOD. More information about the calculation of the AOD are described by Herrmann et al. [
40].
As already seen in
Figure 13 the occurrence of PSCs in the polar stratosphere varies from day-to-day, even though the PSC in around 20 km on 9 February 2020 seems to be very stable. As Massoli et al. [
41] showed, the temperature in the lower stratosphere can change rapidly from day to day, which immediately can stop the formation of PSCs or shift it into higher/lower altitudes.
Generally it can be seen in
Figure 13 the lower troposphere is quite polluted, indicated by high backscatter values. This also supports the observations by the photometer, which see generally a high aerosol load during winter times (see Figures and ).
A thick PSC was detected by KARL in an altitude range of about 17 km to 22 km. With regularization methods the optical depth of this PSC is estimated following the method of [
40]. An optical depth of the PSC reaches
for the time period 5:09 UT to 6:40 UT. Parallel star photometer measurements with the star Merak reveal a mean aerosol optical depth for the entire atmospheric column of
. Merak had during this measurement time an elevation between
and
. The Sun moved during this measurement from an elevation of about
to
.
Since this here presented polar stratospheric cloud is a very dominant one, the contribution of PSCs generally on star photometer measurements can have an offset of
. Even if one would reduce the monthly median AOD for December to February by the estimated optical depth of 0.06 with a PSC cover of 100%, the winter months would still be much more polluted than summer ones (see
Figure 5). Hence, the enhancement of AOD in winter can not be caused by PSC-contamination in star photometer data. As already Maturilli et al. [
42] have shown, polar stratospheric clouds occur not constantly in the arctic winter stratosphere. Therefore a total contribution of
to the monthly median AOD is a overestimation of the influence of PSCs.
5.7. Duration of Events
With autocorrelation analysis a typical length of AOD events shall be determined for every month individually.
Figure 14 shows in grey the autocorrelations for each month,
, and in green the median of the different years. Lags of 1 h and 1 day are indicated each by the black vertical lines. The frequency and potential periodicity of these events of these events is afterwards analysed by Fourier analysis. Black diamonds indicate inflection points of the median curve.
For all months the variability between the different years of one month is large as well as from month to month. For all months the correlation coefficient decreases to within the duration length of several hours.
For every month the inflection point of the median curve (black diamond of Figure ) is determined. This duration estimates a typical aerosol event of this month. The correlation coefficient was in all cases >0.47. The different duration lengths are shown in
Table 5. For calculating the autocorrelation no interpolation was applied for measurement gaps.
It can be seen that the duration is longest during the time between May and October and shortest throughout winter and spring (November to April). Generally a low variability occurs on minute time-scales. This indicates that aerosol events change on larger scales, and according to the inflection points within usually about 3 h to 7 h. September and October have different patterns with a high variability within minute-scale, but this is due to the low data coverage (see
Figure 3). On time-scales of several days the correlation coefficient varies strongly between up to -1 and +1, which due to noise. The atmosphere has for this time no memory of previous events. Therefore, we conclude the observed events are all different from each other, especially during winter, the autocorrelation becomes noisy. However, for some months a small positive correlation coefficient can be observed by 1.2 to 1.5 days with
. A similar peak in
is also observed with a lower intensity in July to August with a similar length.
The more rapid decline of the median curve of the correlation coefficient between 1 h and 1 day in winter (November to March) indicates that consecutive aerosol events within one month are very diverse and no projection or forecast of their length or intensity can be made. These events also change rapidly. A smoother transition between consecutive aerosol events occur more often in summer. There the decline of
is weaker, which indicates a smoother transition from low aerosol load to an event. This duration of aerosol events agrees with the study by Dada et al. [
43], who analysed aerosol events caused by warm air mass intrusions. Overall the duration of a single event of depends strongly on the atmospheric conditions [
44].
For calculating the periodicity of high aerosol events a Fourier Analysis is used. Due to a better data coverage and due to the automatic measurement by the sun photometer, this section only deals with data from April to August with a temporal resolution of 1 min. Due to the partially large measurement gaps of the star photometer, winter is excluded for the Fourier analysis. The spectrum of all measured AOD events is analysed by using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). This spectrum is then used to identify typical periodicity of events dependent on year and month.
To fill the measurement gaps, which occurred due to cloud screening artificial points were added, filling the gaps linearly. This reduces the "smearing" effects in the frequency room, because lots of sin-functions are needed to create sharp edges or jumps in functions. For large frequencies the difference between linear interpolation in the measurement gaps or setting the missing AOD-values to 0 did not make a significant difference.
In all months and years low frequencies are preferred as it can be seen in
Figure 15 and the shorter the frequencies are less often they occur, although all months and years look different from each other. To focus more on the ones with higher probability the plot is cut already at 1000/month. As there is no maximum at a frequency at 30/month or 31/month, respectively. We do not see any diurnal cycle and, hence, no indication of a wrong air mass correction for the sun photometer. No structural frequency could be found in the spectrum. According to FFT analysis this means, there is not a "typical" time interval with which a high aerosol event decays and the aerosol column concentration goes back to normal. As already Dada et al. [
43], Ansmann et al. [
45] already found out in their studies, the duration of a single event is highly dependent on the environmental conditions. Therefore every single aerosol event is special and a prediction of its duration it not possible to make.
To focus a bit more on long-term changes in the frequency pattern and absolute frequentness are analysed.
Figure 16 shows the relative frequentness of frequencies within minutes (with an event repetition of 1 min to 60 min) for local processes, within hours (for events repeated between 1 h to 24 h) for regional processes and within days (events with repetition of one day to the end of month) for large-scale processes and long-range transport of aerosols from other locations.
Table 6.
Median and standard deviation in brackets of the relative occurence [%] for the three time intervals of
Figure 16 (within days, hours and minutes, respectively).
Table 6.
Median and standard deviation in brackets of the relative occurence [%] for the three time intervals of
Figure 16 (within days, hours and minutes, respectively).
| |
April |
May |
June |
July |
August |
| days |
73.28 |
86.53 |
81.05 |
86.53 |
82.58 |
| |
(11.59) |
(10.41) |
(10.70) |
(10.15) |
(12.04) |
| hours |
25.29 |
13.14 |
18.37 |
12.91 |
17.21 |
| |
(11.31) |
(9.84) |
(9.92) |
(9.87) |
(11.62) |
| minutes |
1.17 |
1.11 |
1.11 |
1.10 |
0.48 |
| |
(0.79) |
(0.95) |
(0.96) |
(0.82) |
(1.12) |
Local processes (frequencies within minutes) play the least important role, indicated by the low relative occurrence of high frequencies and rather similar from month-to-month and throughout the years. Additionally the standard deviation of the time series is also lowest and enhances the result of
Table 5.
Obviously low frequencies are preferred, which indicates long-range transport and large-scale processes, since the measured aerosol doesn’t change over several days. Therefore the aerosol sources must be far away and contribute over longer times to the atmospheric budget. On the long transport pathways into the Arctic the aerosol is also aged, meaning it is processed by chemical and physical mechanisms and might differ from the original aerosols at the sources. The variation, here determined by the standard deviation is smallest with values around 10.15% in July. The largest standard deviation is found in August with 12.04%.
Aerosol events, which happen on regional scale, and hence changing within a day are common (with 10% to up to 50%) of the time with a similar standard deviation as large as for the events advected from long distances into the Arctic. Here April has an exceptional high contribution with 25.29%, whereas the contribution in other months is between 12.91% and 18.37%. The standard deviation is quite high with more than 11% in April and August and about 9.8% from May to July.
5.8. Possible Aerosol Sources and Sinks
While the global temperature in the troposphere increases significantly due to climate change the stratosphere cools down [
46]. This effect enhances the probability of PSC formation, since the formation is strongly coupled to the temperature in the stratosphere. Therefore it is not trivial to directly transfer older studies like [
41,
42] to today’s occurrence probabilities of PSCs.
A correlation analysis with deseasonalised AOD-data and several indices characterising large-scale processes with a potential impact on the Arctic aerosol budget is performed in the following:
PNA- (Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern) and
NAO-Index (North Atlantic Oscillation) by the
Climate Prediction Center (last accessed on 6 June 2024): The NAO- and PNA-Indices are calculated daily and is based on Rotated Principal Component Analysis and is applied to monthly standardised 500 mbar height anomalies
-
The MODIS is a NASA satellite-based radiometer designed for Earth observations across 36 different spectral bands, ranging from 0.4
m to 14.4
m in wavelength. Depending on the specific bands selected, MODIS offers a spatial resolution of
and a temporal resolution of approximately two days. MODIS detects wildfires by analysing the 4
m and 11
m bands, identifying temperature anomalies relative to the background and absolute temperatures. This study uses the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) from the two satellites Aqua and Terra, with a gridded spatial resolution of 1 km, to characterise wildfire events. For more information about MODIS and its data products, visit the official website:
MODIS – Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
-
Arctic Sea Ice Extend by
Meereisportal [
47] (Data received by authors on 19 January 2024):
The sea ice extend is a product of several, homogenised data sets from different passive microwave sensors from satellite observations with horizontal resolutions between 5 km to 50 km with frequencies between 89 to 7 GHz. More information can be found at
Online Sea-Ice Knowledge and Data Platform <
www.meereisportal.de>.
Radiosonde products (temperature (T), pressure (P), wind speed (Wind Speed) and water vapour mixing ration (water vapour)) are available and in detail described at Maturilli and Kayser [
48], Maturilli [
49]. At AWIPEV at least once a day a radiosonde is launched at 11 UT, measuring temperature, pressure, water vapour mixing ratio and indirectly wind speed and direction. The altitude, in which the wind is less perturbed by orography is at about 700 m as it is shown by Gral et al. [
50] using wind Lidar measurements
Precipitation observations are taken from
Met Norway. A day with precipitation was chosen, if the daily cumulative amount was
mm
The North Atlantic Oscillation depends on the strength and positions of Iceland Low and Azores High. In the positive phase both pressure systems are well evolved and the large-scale weather systems pass quickly. The meridional transport is weaker in the North Atlantic sector, which also prevents aerosols reaching the Arctic over this pathway. In a negative phase both pressure systems are weak, blocking occurs. Continuously cold Arctic air reaches the midlatitudes or warm Atlantic air penetrates into the Arctic.
The PNA (Pacific/ North America) index has a big influence on the extratropics on the Northern Hemisphere. The positive phase is associated with an enhanced East Asian jet stream with its exit over the western part of USA with precipitation anomalies including above-average amounts in the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwestern USA, while the negative phase is associated with blocking activity over the high latitudes of the North pacific and a strong split-flow over the central North Pacific.
Nothing except a deseasonalisation of the data was done with these data sets. In the frame of a case study Gral and Ritter [
9] tested the hypothesis that sea ice prevents the removal processes of aerosols from the lower atmosphere. Another explanation for a positive correlation between sea ice extend and AOD could be the erosion of ice crystals by wind. These ice crystals are then further transported and measured in Ny-Ålesund. To test this hypothesis depolarization measurements of the aerosols would be needed. This information is not available with both photometers of this study. and therefore has to be done in future studies.
On a regular basis wildfires occur in the Northern Hemisphere and are a big source for aerosols, which can be lifted by several processes into the troposphere or even stratosphere, where they are able to be transported over long distances [
45,
51,
52]. Since Russia and North America represent the two major land masses, where wildfires occur, these regions are represented in the rectangular field by the geographical coordinates
N
E and
N
E for “Russia”. “North America” (NA) is defined by the corners at
N
W and
N
W.
Assuming that aerosols are a good tracer of wind fields, this altitude of 700 m is used to compare the photometer data with. For this study monthly mean profiles were taken for the comparison with monthly mean AOD measurements.
To estimate the causes for AOD events a multi linear regression analysis is performed. Monthly median values of NAO, PNA, pressure, temperature and wind speed at 700 m altitude, integrated water vapour over the entire troposphere, sea ice cover of the Arctic, precipitation days and wildfires in North America and Russia.
Figure 17 shows the measured AOD median and the reconstructed AOD based on the above-mentioned parameters after performing a multi linear regression.
The observed and the reconstructed AOD-curves are further correlated with each other to get an estimation about the alignment between each other. For all months a correlation coefficient was found. By just looking at individual time periods the situation is different: while March and April can be reconstructed very well (), summer is poorer represented with a correlation . Winter is close to the annual correlation .
The factors of the multi linear regression are shown in Table 7. Since sea ice cover is in the order of magnitude of , but NAO or PNA is usually , a normalisation was applied before calculating the regression parameters. Depending on each order of magnitude the given factors have to be multiplied accordingly.
Table 7.
The factors for the multi linear regression are shown. Due to the large span between the different parameters in the order of magnitudes, these parameters are normalised to a range between for a better comparison between each other. The order of magnitude for the normalisation is given in .
Table 7.
The factors for the multi linear regression are shown. Due to the large span between the different parameters in the order of magnitudes, these parameters are normalised to a range between for a better comparison between each other. The order of magnitude for the normalisation is given in .
| |
NAO |
PNA |
P |
T |
water |
Wind |
Sea Ice |
Precip |
FRP |
FRP |
| |
|
|
|
|
vapour |
Speed |
Cover |
Days |
(NA) |
(RU) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mar – Apr |
-0.0441 |
-0.1759 |
-0.3882 |
0.1932 |
-0.1987 |
0.3812 |
2.7290 |
-0.7187 |
0.3409 |
0.0385 |
| May – Sep |
-0.0902 |
0.0732 |
2.2886 |
-6.2772 |
0.0650 |
-0.3841 |
-1.0288 |
-0.1547 |
-0.1080 |
-1.0163 |
| Oct – Feb |
0.1163 |
0.0886 |
0.7487 |
-2.0478 |
-0.1585 |
-0.6025 |
0.7918 |
-0.0369 |
-0.0499 |
-0.0498 |
| Jan – Dec |
0.0229 |
0.1023 |
1.4990 |
-5.0067 |
0.0225 |
0.2291 |
0.3505 |
0.1687 |
-0.0158 |
-0.0179 |
The chosen parameters for the multi linear regression analysis represent different seasons with a different signs and order of magnitude for the selected months or in total. March and April are very well represented, which indicates that the aerosols are long-range transported into the Arctic and originate from sources outside of the Arctic. Summer on the other hand has a comparably bad correlation. This can be caused by the presence of more local sources and agrees to in-situ measurements by Tunved et al. [
53]. Generally speaking the full annual cycle can partially be explained by the chosen parameters and the correlation could be improved by using slightly different variables, with which the AOD is reconstructed.
As shown in Table 7 the coefficients of the multi linear regression analysis are different for each chosen period, with all parameters being comparably small. Early spring (March and April) are in direct comparison still a bit different, which also agrees with the previous findings of our study. The negative sign for fire radiative power (FRP) for North America and Russia might be a bit counter intuitive. We think, the highly polluted air by boreal wildfires either has no trajectories into the European Arctic or the aerosol is dry or wet removed before arriving at Svalbard. The positive coefficient between sea ice cover and AOD agrees to the study by Gral and Ritter [
9] with a significantly larger data set. With these coefficients of Table 7 we conclude, the measured aerosol load throughout the time period 2004 – 2023 is a superposition of different sources and sinks as well as different pathways into the Arctic. A clear correlation between an AOD event and a source or pathway was not found.