Varotsos, C.; Sarlis, N.V.; Mazei, Y.; Saldaev, D.; Efstathiou, M. A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event. Forecasting2024, 6, 187-203.
Varotsos, C.; Sarlis, N.V.; Mazei, Y.; Saldaev, D.; Efstathiou, M. A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event. Forecasting 2024, 6, 187-203.
Varotsos, C.; Sarlis, N.V.; Mazei, Y.; Saldaev, D.; Efstathiou, M. A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event. Forecasting2024, 6, 187-203.
Varotsos, C.; Sarlis, N.V.; Mazei, Y.; Saldaev, D.; Efstathiou, M. A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event. Forecasting 2024, 6, 187-203.
Abstract
Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El-Niño/La-Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, This study aims, 2015-2016). In September 2022, La-Niña entered its third year and was unlikely to continue through 2023. Instead, since 2022 forecasts pointed to a transition from La-Nina to a Neutral phase in summer or late 2023. The onset of the El-Niño occurred around April 2023, and it is anticipated by sophisticated models to be a strong event through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023 - February 2024). The aim of this study is to demonstrate the ability of the combination of two new methods to improve the accuracy of the above claim because El-Niño apart from climate anomalies, significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies, regulating the spread of diseases by insects (e.g., malaria and dengue fever), and influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. This is done by exploring first the previous major El-Niño events in the period January 1876-July 2023. Our calculations show that the ongoing 2023-2024 El-Niño will not be the strongest.
Keywords
El Niño; non-linear dynamics; natural time analysis; symmetry breaking; receiver operating characteristics; nowcasting; extreme events; entropy
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
