5.5. Parameter sensitivity analysis
The main factors that affect the reliability index and probability safety coefficient of the structural performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire are: (1) the mean value of variables; (2) The coefficient of variation of variables; (3) Target reliability indicators.
- (1)
The Influence of Random Variable Mean on Reliability Index and Probability Safety Factor
In order to study the influence of the mean value of random variables on the reliability indicators and probability safety factors of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire, the control variable method is adopted. Each analysis only changes the mean value of a certain variable, and the change plan is to take 0.9, 1.0, and 1.1 times the original value respectively, while the mean values of other random variables are taken as the original value. The specific calculation results of the influence of the mean of each random variable on the reliability index and probability safety coefficient of the performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire are shown in
Table 13 to
Table 20.
Table 13.
Effect of Average Section Width on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 13.
Effect of Average Section Width on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.1928 |
5.0018 |
4.7829 |
4.0192 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.3817 |
5.2938 |
5.1029 |
4.8372 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.7182 |
3.6728 |
3.5782 |
3.3928 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.1029 |
3.8172 |
3.7292 |
3.6172 |
Table 14.
Impact of Average Section Height on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 14.
Impact of Average Section Height on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.1928 |
5.0018 |
4.8982 |
4.3827 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.2932 |
5.1827 |
5.1019 |
4.5627 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.8272 |
3.6729 |
3.5827 |
3.3928 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.1029 |
3.8472 |
3.7182 |
3.5728 |
Table 15.
Effect of Average Concrete Strength on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 15.
Effect of Average Concrete Strength on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
4.9182 |
4.8271 |
4.8271 |
4.1029 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.4982 |
5.3919 |
5.2109 |
4.9828 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.8271 |
3.6279 |
3.5826 |
3.2647 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.1029 |
3.8271 |
3.7463 |
3.6274 |
Table 16.
Effect of the mean uncertainty of the calculation mode on reliability indicators and probabilistic safety factors.
Table 16.
Effect of the mean uncertainty of the calculation mode on reliability indicators and probabilistic safety factors.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.1716 |
5.0187 |
4.8721 |
4.2761 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.3928 |
5.1982 |
5.2817 |
4.5261 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.7261 |
3.6251 |
3.5627 |
3.2817 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.2817 |
3.8172 |
5.7162 |
3.6581 |
Table 17.
Effect of mean area of prestressed reinforcement on reliability index and probabilistic safety factor.
Table 17.
Effect of mean area of prestressed reinforcement on reliability index and probabilistic safety factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.1722 |
5.0018 |
4.8271 |
4.1029 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.3627 |
5.2171 |
5.0271 |
4.7182 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.8172 |
3.6273 |
3.5182 |
3.2019 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.1029 |
3.7298 |
3.7182 |
3.6271 |
Table 18.
Effect of average strength of prestressed steel bars on reliability indicators and probabilistic safety factors.
Table 18.
Effect of average strength of prestressed steel bars on reliability indicators and probabilistic safety factors.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
4.9182 |
4.8172 |
4.6172 |
4.2018 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.4817 |
5.4716 |
5.3716 |
4.7162 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
3.7162 |
3.6172 |
3.5827 |
3.3928 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
4.1028 |
3.8172 |
3.7162 |
3.5102 |
Table 19.
Effect of Average Dead Load on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 19.
Effect of Average Dead Load on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.3817 |
5.2817 |
5.1829 |
4.8172 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.1928 |
5.0182 |
4.8271 |
4.0192 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
4.1029 |
3.9182 |
3.7172 |
3.6571 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
3.7162 |
3.6721 |
3.5817 |
3.2492 |
Table 20.
Impact of Average Live Load on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 20.
Impact of Average Live Load on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| Parameter |
Mean value |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.9 |
5.4271 |
5.3281 |
5.1082 |
4.7168 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 1.1 |
5.2091 |
4.9281 |
4.7821 |
4.2918 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.9 |
4.1029 |
3.8719 |
3.7162 |
3.6152 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 1.1 |
3.8721 |
3.6271 |
3.5721 |
3.2481 |
By analyzing the contents of
Table 13 to
Table 20, it can be concluded that the reliability index of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire increases with the increase of the main beam width, main beam height, concrete strength, calculation mode uncertainty, prestressed steel area, and the average of prestressed steel strength, while decreases with the increase of the average of dead and live loads; The probability safety factor of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire increases with the increase of the main beam width, main beam height, concrete strength, calculation mode uncertainty, prestressed steel bar area, and the mean value of prestressed steel bar strength, while decreases with the increase of the mean value of dead and live loads. Overall, the mean of random variables has a significant impact on the reliability index and probability safety factor of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire. In specific engineering practice, attention should be paid to monitoring and statistics to reduce structural safety risks and ensure the normal operation of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire.
- (2)
The Influence of Random Variable Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor
In order to study the influence of the coefficient of variation of random variables on the reliability indicators and probability safety factors of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire, the control variable method is adopted. Each analysis only changes the coefficient of variation of a certain variable, and the change plan is to take 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 times the original value respectively, while ensuring that the coefficient of variation of other variables remains unchanged. The specific calculation results of the influence of the coefficient of variation of each random variable on the reliability index and probability safety coefficient of the structural performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire are shown in
Table 21 to
Table 28.
Table 21.
Effect of Section Width Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 21.
Effect of Section Width Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3726 |
5.2918 |
5.1928 |
4.6872 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.1827 |
5.0182 |
4.8271 |
4.2817 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1028 |
3.8232 |
3.8172 |
3.6716 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.8271 |
3.6251 |
3.4726 |
3.2817 |
Table 22.
Impact of Section Height Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 22.
Impact of Section Height Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3716 |
5.1726 |
5.1029 |
4.7162 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.0192 |
4.9181 |
4.8172 |
4.3716 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1028 |
3.8172 |
3.7164 |
3.7162 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.7172 |
3.6527 |
3.5627 |
3.1726 |
Table 23.
Effect of Concrete Strength Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 23.
Effect of Concrete Strength Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3918 |
5.1928 |
5.0182 |
4.5263 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.1928 |
5.0819 |
4.7182 |
4.3617 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1827 |
3.6172 |
3.7179 |
3.7162 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.7162 |
3.6521 |
3.5728 |
3.1928 |
Table 24.
Effect of Calculation Mode Uncertainty Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 24.
Effect of Calculation Mode Uncertainty Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3198 |
5.2183 |
5.1029 |
4.7162 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.1827 |
5.2771 |
4.8172 |
4.5162 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1928 |
3.8172 |
3.7861 |
3.6172 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.8172 |
3.6173 |
3.5617 |
3.1874 |
Table 25.
Effect of Area Variation Coefficient of Prestressed Steel Bars on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 25.
Effect of Area Variation Coefficient of Prestressed Steel Bars on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3817 |
5.2615 |
5.1823 |
4.6257 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.1726 |
4.9182 |
4.7456 |
4.2736 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.2716 |
3.9182 |
3.7584 |
3.6474 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.6172 |
3.6153 |
3.8745 |
3.3162 |
Table 26.
Effect of Strength Variation Coefficient of Prestressed Steel Bars on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 26.
Effect of Strength Variation Coefficient of Prestressed Steel Bars on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.4827 |
5.2737 |
5.2183 |
4.6517 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.2617 |
4.9827 |
4.7264 |
4.4726 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1725 |
3.9183 |
3.7261 |
3.6253 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.7163 |
3.5726 |
3.4516 |
3.2617 |
Table 27.
Effect of Constant Load Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 27.
Effect of Constant Load Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.3716 |
5.2716 |
5.2172 |
4.7263 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.1827 |
5.0182 |
4.6735 |
4.3627 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.2182 |
3.9271 |
3.8721 |
3.3627 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.8271 |
3.5262 |
3.5287 |
3.2617 |
Table 28.
Effect of Live Load Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
Table 28.
Effect of Live Load Variation Coefficient on Reliability Index and Probabilistic Safety Factor.
| parameter |
coefficient of variation |
Before fire |
After fire 15min |
After fire 30min |
After fire 60min |
| Reliability index |
0.5 |
5.4638 |
5.2716 |
5.1028 |
4.6274 |
| 1.0 |
5.2772 |
5.1031 |
4.9917 |
4.4732 |
| 2.0 |
5.0281 |
4.8927 |
4.8109 |
4.2817 |
| Probabilistic safety factor |
0.5 |
4.1726 |
3.8172 |
3.7263 |
3.5162 |
| 1.0 |
3.9827 |
3.7872 |
3.6279 |
3.4821 |
| 2.0 |
3.7162 |
3.6573 |
3.5267 |
3.3627 |
By analyzing the contents of
Table 21 to
Table 28, it can be concluded that the reliability indicators of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire decrease with the increase of the main beam width, main beam height, concrete strength, calculation mode uncertainty, prestressed steel bar area, prestressed steel bar strength, constant and live load variation coefficients; The probability safety factor of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire decreases with the increase of main beam width, main beam height, concrete strength, calculation mode uncertainty, prestressed steel bar area, prestressed steel bar strength, and variation coefficients of dead and live loads. Overall, the coefficient of variation of random variables has a significant impact on the reliability index and probability safety factor of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire. In specific engineering practice, attention should be paid to the discreteness of monitoring and statistical parameters to reduce structural safety risks and ensure the normal operation of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire.
- (3)
The Influence of Target Reliability Index on Probability Safety Factor
In order to study the impact of target reliability indicators on the probability safety factor of performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire, the target reliability indicators were modified each time, that is, the changed target reliability indicators were taken as 3.2, 3.7, 4.2, 4.7, and 5.2. The specific calculation results of the impact of target reliability indicators on the probability safety coefficient of performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after a fire are shown in
Table 29.
According to the analysis in
Table 29, as the target reliability index increases, the probability safety coefficient of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire shows a decreasing trend. This indicates that with the increase of the target reliability index, the probability safety coefficient of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire gradually decreases, the actual required safety performance of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire gradually increases, and the safety reserve of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fire gradually decreases; The probability safety coefficients calculated based on the reliability back analysis method under each target reliability index are all smaller than the safety coefficients calculated based on the deterministic model, indicating that parameter uncertainty has a significant impact on the probability safety coefficient of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fires. Ignoring parameter uncertainty will overestimate the safety coefficient of prestressed concrete beam bridges after fires.