Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Prediction of Daily Ambient Temperature and Its Hourly Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks in Urban Allotment Gardens and in an Urban Park in Valladolid, Castilla y León, Spain.

Version 1 : Received: 31 August 2023 / Approved: 1 September 2023 / Online: 6 September 2023 (14:33:20 CEST)

How to cite: Tomatis, F.; Diez, F.J.; Wilhelm, M.S.; Navas-Gracia, L.M. Prediction of Daily Ambient Temperature and Its Hourly Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks in Urban Allotment Gardens and in an Urban Park in Valladolid, Castilla y León, Spain.. Preprints 2023, 2023090404. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0404.v1 Tomatis, F.; Diez, F.J.; Wilhelm, M.S.; Navas-Gracia, L.M. Prediction of Daily Ambient Temperature and Its Hourly Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks in Urban Allotment Gardens and in an Urban Park in Valladolid, Castilla y León, Spain.. Preprints 2023, 2023090404. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202309.0404.v1

Abstract

Cities exemplify the evolving world with changing demographics and climates. Urban green spaces play a crucial role in improving the quality of life of people through their potential to mitigate temperatures. Therefore, comprehending their impact is of para-mount interest. Given the challenges in obtaining temperature data from urban locations, this study develops Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict daily and hourly temperatures in Valladolid, Spain, with a particular focus on urban allotment gardens and a forested urban park. ANNs were built and evaluated from various combinations of inputs (X), hidden neurons (Y) and outputs (Z) under the practical rule of "making net-works simple, to obtain better results". The best performing model was 6-Y-1 ANN archi-tecture with an impressive result of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.42°C in the urban garden called Valle de Arán. However, other five ANN architectures were also tested (7-Y-5; 6-Y-5; 7-Y-1; 3-Y-Z and 2-Y-1). ANNs dedicated to urban temperature analysis hold immense potential for urban planning and research, aiding in under-standing the urban climate, forecasting future temperatures, identifying temperature mitigation strategies and even for managing urban crops

Keywords

urban temperature; urban climate; urban gardens; urban parks; urban green spaces; urban climate mitigation; artificial neural networks; predictions

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Agricultural Science and Agronomy

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