Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
African Swine Fever Shock: China’s Hog Industry Resilience and its Influencing Factors
Version 1
: Received: 29 July 2023 / Approved: 31 July 2023 / Online: 31 July 2023 (11:45:50 CEST)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Shi, Z.; Hu, X. African Swine Fever Shock: China’s Hog Industry’s Resilience and Its Influencing Factors. Animals 2023, 13, 2817. Shi, Z.; Hu, X. African Swine Fever Shock: China’s Hog Industry’s Resilience and Its Influencing Factors. Animals 2023, 13, 2817.
Abstract
African swine fever has damaged the foundation of China’s hog industry, caused a serious decline in hog production, highlighted the contradiction between supply and demand in the pork market, and led to major economic and social impacts. This study measured the industrial resilience of 31 Chinese provinces which faced the African swine fever shock and its spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics from 2018-2021 in terms of the two dimensions of resistance and recoverability. Using Geodetector, the study explored the key factors influencing the resilience of China’s hog industry. The results showed that 2018-2019 and 2020-2021 were the resistance and recovery periods of the hog industry under the African swine fever shock, respectively, with poor resilience characterizing the resistance period and improved resilience exemplifying the recovery period. At the early stage of the African swine fever outbreak, Tianjin, Shanxi, Guangxi and Yunnan had robust resistance in the hog industry, and the slaughter rate, economic level, mortality rate, carcass weight and culling rate showed the highest explanation for the resistance. At the most severe stage of the outbreak, the resistance of the hog industry in all provinces was generally poor, and the slaughter rate, per capita consumption and scale level showed the highest explanation for the resistance. In the period of rapid recovery of hog production, the recoverability of each province was very strong, and the industrial structure, culling rate, economic level and resource carrying capacity showed the highest explanation for the recoverability. In the reasonable adjustment period of hog production capacity, the recoverability based on the breeding sow inventory in 13 provinces, including Henan, Shandong and other large hog breeding provinces, was negative, and the scale level, slaughter rate, per capita consumption and resource carrying showed the highest explanation for the recoverability. It is recommended to take measures to enhance the resilience of the hog industry, strengthen the prevention and control of hog epidemics, improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism, and strive to enhance the ability of the hog industry to cope with major animal epidemics.
Keywords
African swine fever; hog industry; industry resilience; resistance; recoverability; influencing factors
Subject
Business, Economics and Management, Economics
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Comments (0)
We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.
Leave a public commentSend a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment
