Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

Version 1 : Received: 23 November 2022 / Approved: 28 November 2022 / Online: 28 November 2022 (03:28:16 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 3 February 2023 / Approved: 6 February 2023 / Online: 6 February 2023 (03:09:45 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Kopsco, H.L.; Gronemeyer, P.; Mateus-Pinilla, N.; Smith, R.L. Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA. Insects 2023, 14, 213. Kopsco, H.L.; Gronemeyer, P.; Mateus-Pinilla, N.; Smith, R.L. Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA. Insects 2023, 14, 213.

Abstract

The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970-2000, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. Presence of forest and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat all species was predicted to shrink in the 2050 climate scenario, and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario, but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.

Keywords

Ticks; species distribution models; habitat suitability models; Illinois; climate

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 6 February 2023
Commenter: Heather Kopsco
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: We revised this manuscript according to reviewer comments, including increasing the resolution of the analysis. Results changed due to these updates.
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