Version 1
: Received: 3 September 2022 / Approved: 6 September 2022 / Online: 6 September 2022 (02:36:46 CEST)
How to cite:
Mosadegh, E.; Babaeian, I.; Ashrafi, K.; Motlagh, M.S. Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Future Urban Ozone Air Quality in Tehran, Iran. Preprints2022, 2022090072. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0072.v1
Mosadegh, E.; Babaeian, I.; Ashrafi, K.; Motlagh, M.S. Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Future Urban Ozone Air Quality in Tehran, Iran. Preprints 2022, 2022090072. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0072.v1
Mosadegh, E.; Babaeian, I.; Ashrafi, K.; Motlagh, M.S. Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Future Urban Ozone Air Quality in Tehran, Iran. Preprints2022, 2022090072. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0072.v1
APA Style
Mosadegh, E., Babaeian, I., Ashrafi, K., & Motlagh, M.S. (2022). Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Future Urban Ozone Air Quality in Tehran, Iran. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0072.v1
Chicago/Turabian Style
Mosadegh, E., Khosro Ashrafi and Majid Shafiepour Motlagh. 2022 "Modeling the Regional Effects of Climate Change on Future Urban Ozone Air Quality in Tehran, Iran" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202209.0072.v1
Abstract
We developed an artificial neural network as an air quality model and estimated the scope of the impact of climate change on future (until 2064) summertime trends of hourly Ozone (O3) concentrations at an urban air quality station in Tehran, Iran. Our developed scenarios assume that present-time emissions conditions of O3 precursors will remain constant in the future. Therefore, only the impact of climate change on future O3 concentrations is investigated in this study. GCM projections indicate more favorable climate conditions for O3 formation over the study area in the future: the surface temperature increases over all months of the year, solar radiation increases, and precipitation decreases in future summers, and summertime daily maximum temperature increases about 1.2 ∘C to 3 ∘C until 2064. In the scenario based on present-time O3 conditions in 2012 summer without any axceedances, the summertime exceedance days of 8-hr O3 standard are projected to increase in the future by about 4.2 days in the short term and about 12.3 days in the mid-term. Similarly, in the scenario based on present-time O3 conditions in 2010 summer with 58 days of exceedance from 8-hr O3 standard, exceedances are projected to increase about 4.5 days in the short term and about 14.1 days in the mid-term. Moreover, the number of Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy days in 8-hr AQI is also projected to increase based on pollution scenarios of both summers.
Keywords
Ozone; climate change; air quality modeling; artificial neural networks; statistical downscaling; Tehran
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
