Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Impacts of Land-Use and Climate Changes on Hydrologic Processes in the Piracicaba Basin, Brazil

Version 1 : Received: 28 August 2022 / Approved: 30 August 2022 / Online: 30 August 2022 (05:28:34 CEST)

How to cite: Machado, R.; Sentelhas, P.; Leite, R. Impacts of Land-Use and Climate Changes on Hydrologic Processes in the Piracicaba Basin, Brazil. Preprints 2022, 2022080508. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202208.0508.v1 Machado, R.; Sentelhas, P.; Leite, R. Impacts of Land-Use and Climate Changes on Hydrologic Processes in the Piracicaba Basin, Brazil. Preprints 2022, 2022080508. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202208.0508.v1

Abstract

Climate and land use changes are two factors affecting the hydrology of watersheds. The greatest effect of climate change is probably the change in the hydrological cycle, thus water availability for human consumption, industry, and power generation. While the change in land use can cause changes in the hydrological components of the basin, such as evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater recharge. From these projections, it is necessary to understand the processes involved in climate change and land use and its impact on water systems. In this context, the objective of this study was to simulate climate change scenarios combined with the land use change and to analyze the impacts on the hydrology in the Piracicaba basin. Two periods were selected based on the preliminary result of detection of the abrupt change point of the annual flow series, using Petitt's non-parameter test. The first period selected prior to the occurrence of the point of the change was from 1985 to 2000. The other period after the point of the change was 2001 to 2015. Land use maps of the years 1990 and 2010 were used to represent the two periods. The results showed a good performance of the SWAT model. The NS (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) was 0.88 in calibration for both periods. In the validation, the NS was 0.92 and 0.94 for the first and second periods respectively. We then simulate climate and land use changes scenarios and compare them to the current scenario (baseline). The simulation results showed that the hydrological processes in the Piracicaba basin in the period 1985-2015, had more intense responses to land use change than climate.

Keywords

hydrologic modelling; Pettit method; SWAT; surface runoff; water yield

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

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