Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization

Jonathan H. Jiang
* ORCID logo ,
Fuyang Feng
,
Philip E. Rosen
,
Kristen A. Fahy
,
Antong Zhang
,
Piotr Obacz
,
Prithwis Das
ORCID logo ,
Zong-Hong Zhu
Version 1 : Received: 22 March 2022 / Approved: 23 March 2022 / Online: 23 March 2022 (05:19:37 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Jiang, J.H.; Feng, F.; Rosen, P.E.; Fahy, K.A.; Das, P.; Obacz, P.; Zhang, A.; Zhu, Z.-H. Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization. Galaxies 2022, 10, 68. Jiang, J.H.; Feng, F.; Rosen, P.E.; Fahy, K.A.; Das, P.; Obacz, P.; Zhang, A.; Zhu, Z.-H. Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization. Galaxies 2022, 10, 68.

Abstract

The level of technological development of any civilization can be gaged in large part by the amount of energy they produce for their use, but also encompasses that civilization’s stewardship of their home world. Following the Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able to store and use all the energy available on its planet. In this study, we develop a model based on Carl Sagan’s K formula and use this model to analyze the consumption and energy supply of the three most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas, crude, NGL and feedstocks), nuclear energy and renewable energy. We also consider environmental limitations suggested by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and those specific to our calculations to predict when humanity will reach the level of a Kardashev scale Type I civilization.

Keywords

Kardashev scale; civilization; energy consumption and supply

Subject

Physical Sciences, Applied Physics

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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