Preprint Article Version 3 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

The BFP (Benford-Fibonacci-Perez) Method Validates the Consistency of COVID-19 Epidemiological Data in France and Italy

Version 1 : Received: 4 June 2021 / Approved: 7 June 2021 / Online: 7 June 2021 (14:25:44 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 7 June 2021 / Approved: 8 June 2021 / Online: 8 June 2021 (10:19:38 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 11 June 2021 / Approved: 11 June 2021 / Online: 11 June 2021 (15:47:44 CEST)

How to cite: Perez, J. The BFP (Benford-Fibonacci-Perez) Method Validates the Consistency of COVID-19 Epidemiological Data in France and Italy. Preprints 2021, 2021060187 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202106.0187.v3). Perez, J. The BFP (Benford-Fibonacci-Perez) Method Validates the Consistency of COVID-19 Epidemiological Data in France and Italy. Preprints 2021, 2021060187 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202106.0187.v3).

Abstract

The Benford method can be used to detect manipulation of epidemiological or trial data during the validation of new drugs. We extend here the Benford method after having detected particular properties for the Fibonacci values 1, 2, 3, 5 and 8 of the first decimal of 10 runs of official epidemiological data published in France and Italy (positive cases, intensive care, and deaths) for the periods of March 1 to May 30, 2020 and 2021, each with 91 raw data. This new method – called “BFP” for Benford-Fibonacci-Perez - is positive in all 10 cases (i.e. 910 values) with an average of favorable cases close to 80%, which, in our opinion, would validate the reliability of these basic data.

Subject Areas

SARS-CoV2; Biomathematics; Benford law; trials; Epidemiology; Fibonacci; data analysis; big data

Comments (1)

Comment 1
Received: 11 June 2021
Commenter: Jean-claude Perez
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author
Comment: ADDS page 10:

Out of curiosity we tested the same technique, no longer on the first but on the last digit: nothing happens which confirms the strong meaning of the first digit when it takes the values ​​1 2 3 5 8. see example last digit here: last digit out of the 910 France§ Italy values … Result : 456 (against 725 for the first digit) 100 random last digit test simulations with 910 cases each : positive results : 435 443 465 458 463 440 478 452 479 457 446 432 483 450 465 440 455 463 465 450 468 483 443 466 480 457 441 469 449 435 469 449 485 447 432 453 449 477 448 453 460 471 456 446 457 446 408 468 476 452 471 442 472 447 447 482 428 466 484 435 444 455 460 460 452 460 442 431 461 455 444 448 462 447 459 439 433 463 439 476 478 447 442 443 463 456 472 477 446 455 459 460 448 476 428 483 443 460 427 443 Average result score : 455.22
We bring here the proof that this remarkable property of the first digit disappears completely when considering the last digit.

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