The BFP (Benford-Fibonacci-Perez) Method Validates the Consistency of COVID-19 Epidemiological Data in France and Italy

Jean-Claude Perez

doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0187.v2

Preprint Article Version 2 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 4 June 2021 / Approved: 7 June 2021 / Online: 7 June 2021 (14:25:44 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 7 June 2021 / Approved: 8 June 2021 / Online: 8 June 2021 (10:19:38 CEST)
Version 3 : Received: 11 June 2021 / Approved: 11 June 2021 / Online: 11 June 2021 (15:47:44 CEST)

The Benford method can be used to detect manipulation of epidemiological or trial data during the validation of new drugs. We extend here the Benford method after having detected particular properties for the Fibonacci values 1, 2, 3, 5 and 8 of the first decimal of 10 runs of official epidemiological data published in France and Italy (positive cases, intensive care, and deaths) for the periods of March 1 to May 30, 2020 and 2021, each with 91 raw data. This new method – called “BFP” for Benford-Fibonacci-Perez - is positive in all 10 cases (i.e. 910 values) with an average of favorable cases close to 80%, which, in our opinion, would validate the reliability of these basic data.

SARS-CoV2; Biomathematics; Benford law; trials; Epidemiology; Fibonacci; data analysis; big data

Biology and Life Sciences, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology

Comment 1

Received: 8 June 2021
Commenter: Jean-claude Perez
Commenter's Conflict of Interests: Author

Comment: Add a § comparing results with chance (91000 random values)
page 10

+ Respond to this comment

Your full name

Your affiliation information (e.g., name of your university/institution/organization)

Not displayed online.

Your Email address (not made public)

Please leave your comment to this article below.

Mathematical equations can be typed in either LaTeX formats \\[ ... \\] or $$ ... $$, or MathML format <math> ... </math>. Try the LaTeX or MathML example.

Type equation:

Preview:

Copy equation into message below

Close menu

Please click a symbol to insert it into the message box below:

Please enter the link here:

Optionally, you can enter text that should appear as linked text:

Copy link into message below

Close menu

Please enter or paste the URL to the image here (please only use links to jpg/jpeg, png and gif images):

Copy image into message below

Close menu

Type author name or keywords to filter the list of references in this group (you can add a new citation under Bibliography):

No existing citations in Discussion Group

Wikify editor is a simple editor for wiki-style mark-up. It was written by MDPI for Sciforum in 2014. The rendering of the mark-up is based on Wiky.php with some tweaks. Rendering of mathematical equations is done with MathJax. Please send us a message for support or for reporting bugs.

Close menu

Please declare any conflicts of interest you may have with this paper, financial or otherwise.

I do not have a conflict of interest

I would like to declare a conflict of interest

Display my name on the website I want to get recognition for my comment on Publons

[what’s this?]. Link your accounts here

Captcha

Renew

I accept the following conditions:

Comments must follow the standards of professional discourse and should focus on the scientific content of the article. Insulting or offensive language, personal attacks and off-topic remarks will not be permitted. Comments must be written in English. Preprints reserves the right to remove comments without notice. Readers who post comments are obliged to declare any competing interests, financial or otherwise.

Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.

The BFP (Benford-Fibonacci-Perez) Method Validates the Consistency of COVID-19 Epidemiological Data in France and Italy

Abstract

Keywords

Subject

Comments (1)