Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6

Version 1 : Received: 9 January 2021 / Approved: 11 January 2021 / Online: 11 January 2021 (12:30:55 CET)

How to cite: Karim, R.; Tan, G.; Ayugi, B.; Babaousmail, H.; Liu, F.; Ngoma, H.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6. Preprints 2021, 2021010188 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202101.0188.v1). Karim, R.; Tan, G.; Ayugi, B.; Babaousmail, H.; Liu, F.; Ngoma, H.; Ongoma, V. Future Changes in Seasonal Temperature Over Pakistan in CMIP6. Preprints 2021, 2021010188 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202101.0188.v1).

Abstract

The present study analyzed seasonal (i.e., Dec-Jan [DJF] and June – August [JJA]) temperature change for the near (2025-2054) and far future (2070-2099) under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios over Pakistan. The anomalies, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sequential Mann-Kendall trend test (SQMK), and probability density frequency (PDF) analysis were used to investigate future mean temperature variations. The DJF season projected higher increase in temperature in the northern (3.8 oC, 5.1 oC and 6.5 oC), followed by central regions (3.8 oC, 4.9 oC and 6.4 oC) under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The central region is likely to record significant increase in JJA (3.0 oC, 4.4 oC and 5.4 oC) mean temperature in far future under the given SSP scenarios. Compared to historical (PDF), the far future DJF temperature changes revealed significant higher warming over northern, central and then over southern regions under most of SSP scenarios. The southern regions are projected to possible rise in far future JJA temperatures by 2.7 oC, 3.3 oC and 4.3 oC, under SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, respectively. The PDFs for JJA further verify the highest positive abrupt shift in temperature across the central region and then southern region. The future diverse seasonal temperature changes supports further examination of the associated mechanisms and factors responsible for temperature changes to address climate change.

Subject Areas

CMIP6; Temperature; Projections; Trends; Pakistan; JJA; DJF

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