Submitted:
17 September 2020
Posted:
18 September 2020
You are already at the latest version
Preprints on COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2
Abstract
late in December 2019 2019-nCoV was identified as the pathogen responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory distress in Wuhan, China. The virus was detected in multiple countries during January, but it is believed widespread community transmission began late in February or early March. Since March the virus has caused over 100k confirmed deaths in the US, with some states more severely impacted, notably NY and NJ. Here I examine excess mortality at the national and state level from January through July 2020. I find that the increase in excess mortality began in late February, suggesting the pathogen was circulating undetected earlier than assumed. The timing and intensity of the increase in excess mortality varied across states, with two patterns emerging: an early, sharp increase reaching a peak during April-May, best exemplified by NY and NJ, and a shallower, sustained increase, reaching a peak in late July, observed mostly in the southern regions of the US.
Keywords:
2019-nCoV
; COVID-19
; excess mortality
; all-cause deaths
; case fatality ratio
; CFR
; early transmission
; SARS
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.
